Coupling multilevel perspective with causal layered analysis on non-reflexive societies the case of socio-technical system of car fuel in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 120029
Author(s):  
Tahereh Miremadi
foresight ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahereh Miremadi

Purpose The paper aims to complement the six pillars analysis with the multi-level perspective to make it more systematic and policy relevant. Design/methodology/approach Take the innovation system foresight as the exemplar; the paper asks if the other systemic approaches to innovation can function as the middle range theory and underpin critical future studies. To answer, the paper combines the six-pillar approach (SPA) with the multilevel perspective (MLP) and builds “transitional foresight”. Then it takes the fourth pillar; transitional causal layered analysis and applies it to a case study: water stress in Iran. The paper concludes noting that in transitional foresight, the borderlines, the players and the orientations of the foresight are clearer than the six-pillar analysis. Findings The SPA and MLP-integrated framework make a powerful research instrument for transitional foresight. Research limitations/implications The paper applied the integrated framework to a case “water system in Iran”. But the framework should be applied in different cases in different countries to test its applicability. Practical implications The suggested framework can be used as a heuristics for the students and researchers who want to engage with the emancipatory perspective of the six-pillar approach and need to have an academic methodology with rigor and granularity. Originality/value The six-pillar approach of Sohail Inayatullah and the multilevel perspective of Geels can combine to make a powerful heuristic for transitional foresight.


2018 ◽  
Vol 103 (11) ◽  
pp. 1230-1241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wido G. M. Oerlemans ◽  
Arnold B. Bakker

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ingerick ◽  
Kenneth Schwartz ◽  
Johnny Weissmuller

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. O. Nedosekin ◽  
A. V. Smirnov ◽  
D. P. Makarenko ◽  
Z. I. Abdoulaeva

The article presents new models and methods for estimating the residual service life of an autonomous energy system, using the functional operational risk criterion (FOR). The purpose of the article is to demonstrate a new method of durability evaluation using the fuzzy logic and soft computing framework. Durability in the article is understood as a complex property directly adjacent to the complex property of system resilience, as understood in the Western practice of assessing and ensuring the reliability of technical systems. Due to the lack of reliable homogeneous statistics on system equipment failures and recoveries, triangular fuzzy estimates of failure and recovery intensities are used as fuzzy functions of time based on incomplete data and expert estimates. The FOR in the model is the possibility for the system availability ratio to be below the standard level. An example of the evaluation of the FOR and the residual service life of a redundant cold supply system of a special facility is considered. The transition from the paradigm of structural reliability to the paradigm of functional reliability based on the continuous degradation of the technological parameters of an autonomous energy system is considered. In this case, the FOR can no longer be evaluated by the criterion of a sudden failure, nor is it possible to build a Markov’s chain on discrete states of the technical system. Assuming this, it is appropriate to predict the defi ning functional parameters of a technical system as fuzzy functions of a general form and to estimate the residual service life of the technical system as a fuzzy random variable. Then the FOR is estimated as the possibility for the residual life of the technical system to be below its warranty period, as determined by the supplier of the equipment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 41-44
Author(s):  
Bakhtier Mavlyankariev ◽  
◽  
Abdulla Kuldashev ◽  
Bakhodir Khatamov ◽  
Andrei Pen ◽  
...  

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