Combining official and Google Trends data to forecast the Italian youth unemployment rate

In this paper, the scope is to study whether and how the COVID-19 situation affected the unemployment rate in Greece. To achieve this, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed and data analysis is carried out. Another interesting question is whether the situation affected more heavily female and the youth unemployment (under 25 years old) compared to the overall unemployment. To predict the future impact of COVID-19 on these variables, we used the Impulse Response function. Furthermore, there is taking place a comparison of the impact of the pandemic with the other European countries for overall, female, and youth unemployment rates. Finally, the forecasting ability of such a model is compared with ARIMA and ANN univariate models.

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Use of Google Trends in modelling registered unemployment rate in Poland

Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician ◽

10.5604/01.3001.0014.7986 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 66 (3) ◽

pp. 45-61

Author(s):

Mariusz Malinowski

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Autoregressive Model ◽

Goodness Of Fit ◽

Google Trends ◽

Forecast Errors ◽

International Mobility ◽

Exogenous Variables ◽

Basic Model ◽

Current State ◽

Internet Users

The paper deals with the problem of monitoring the unemployment rate in Poland. The main aim of the article is to check whether the addition of selected Google Trends indices improves the accuracy of forecasts generated by the autoregressive model of registered unemployment rate. The research method is based on nowcasting techniques which are used to assess the current state of an economy. Data for the years 2004–2019 were retrieved from publication by Statistics Poland (GUS) and Google Trends, the latter of which allows tracking the popularity of terms searched by Internet users. The study compares the goodness of fit and forecast errors of the basic model with these of models extended with exogenous variables. Both the potential and the limitations of the utilisation of a new source of data in macroeconomic analyses concerning Poland are presented in the paper. The analysis yields a conclusion that Google indexes (commonly used in the literature written in English) do not improve the accuracy of predictions of the autoregressive model. Satisfactory results are only obtained for indices related to the international mobility of the workforce.

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Analysis of the Impact Fiscal Fundamentals on Unemployment in Nigeria. Imperatives for Covid 19, Era

Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies ◽

10.47191/jefms/v4-i5-22 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 04 (05) ◽

Author(s):

Patrick Ologbenla ◽

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Research Work ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

Government Revenue ◽

Increase Productivity ◽

Employment Generation ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

The study examined the impact of fiscal fundamental on unemployment rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020 focusing on COVID-19 imperatives. The research work embraces OLS estimating techniques to estimate the relationship between the variables. The result of the analysis revealed that government expenditure had positive and significant effect on the rate of unemployment. Also government revenue had a positive but insignificant impact on unemployment during. The implication of these findings for COVID-19 is that the narrative which is obtained from the analysis needs to be changed. Government revenue should be made to have significant impact on unemployment. The pandemic has led to a lot of job lost and the unemployment rate in Nigeria has risen by about 55% peaking at 36% youth unemployment rate as at last quarter of 2020. The study therefore, recommends that government should refocus expenditure and revenue in the country in such a way it will target development of infrastructural facilities so as to increase productivity and in turn facilitate employment generation.

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The Output Gap and Youth Unemployment: An Analysis Based on Okun’s Law

Economies ◽

10.3390/economies7040108 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 108

Author(s):

Mindaugas Butkus ◽

Janina Seputiene

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

Okun’S Law ◽

Equilibrium Unemployment ◽

Age And Gender ◽

Okun's Law ◽

And Gender ◽

The Impact ◽

Gender Specific ◽

Potential Level

The impact of economic fluctuations on the total unemployment rate is widely studied, however, with respect to age- and gender-specific unemployment, this relationship is not so well examined. We apply the gap version of Okun’s law, aiming to estimate youth unemployment rate sensitivity to output deviations from its potential level. Additionally, we aim to compare whether men or women have a higher equilibrium unemployment rate when output is at the potential level. Contrary to most studies on age- and gender-specific Okun’s coefficients, which assume that the effect of output on unemployment is homogenous, we allow a different effect to occur, depending on the output gap’s sign (positive/negative). The focus of the analysis is on 28 EU countries over the period of 2000–2018. The model is estimated by least squares dummy variable estimator (LSDV), using Prais–Winsten standard errors. We did not find evidence that higher equilibrium unemployment rates are more typical for men or for women. The estimates clearly show the equilibrium level of youth unemployment to be well above that of total unemployment, and this conclusion holds for both genders. We assess greater youth unemployment sensitivity to negative output shock, rather than to positive output shock, but when we take confidence intervals into consideration, this conclusion becomes less obvious.

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Does video games’ popularity affect unemployment rate? Evidence from macro-level analysis

Journal of Economic Studies ◽

10.1108/jes-07-2019-0339 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Petr Parshakov ◽

Sofiia Paklina ◽

Dennis Coates ◽

Aleksei Chadov

Keyword(s):

Video Games ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Video Game ◽

Leisure Activities ◽

Leisure Activity ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

Positive Influence ◽

Data Set ◽

Prize Money ◽

Content Type

PurposeVideo games are considered as a leisure activity that makes being unemployed more attractive than before. In this study, the authors use eSports prizes as a proxy for the popularity of video games to analyze its influence on total and youth unemployment.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a theoretical model and empirically test it using the total prize money won by representatives of a country in a given season in eSports tournaments, via a panel regression model with the country-year as a unit of observation. The data set includes information about 191 countries between 2000 and 2015.FindingsThe authors’ results of regression analysis show a positive influence of the popularity of video games on the unemployment rate. In addition, the authors analyze this effect for countries with different levels of income and labor productivity. The authors found a significant inverse relationship between income level and the effect of the popularity of video games on total and youth unemployment.Originality/valueWhile previous studies rely mostly on self-reported data, the authors suggest a new approach to measure video game popularity. This paper contributes to existing knowledge with empirical evidence on how leisure activities affect unemployment at the country level.

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The Deterioration of the Spanish Youth Labour Market (1985–2015): An Interdisciplinary Case Study

Young ◽

10.1177/1103308820914838 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 28 (5) ◽

pp. 544-563 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Miquel Úbeda ◽

M. Àngels Cabasés ◽

Malena Sabaté ◽

Tanja Strecker

Keyword(s):

Labour Market ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Job Insecurity ◽

Average Length ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

Working Hours ◽

Systematic Analysis ◽

Youth Labour Market ◽

Deterioration Process ◽

Youth Labour

The Spanish labour market is notorious for its high unemployment rate and its exceptionally high youth unemployment rate, job insecurity, impermanence and underemployment. This article presents a systematic analysis of the Spanish labour market’s deterioration process, in particular focusing on the youth labour market. It combines historic reviews with statistical analyses of data from official sources, like the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), through different econometric models. The procedure consists of three steps: (a) first, a historical estimation to facilitate the systematic selection of the statistics, in this case contracts taken from a large sample of the Spanish workforce over the period 1985–2015; (b) econometric modelling of relevant indicators, in this case the average annual income, daily working hours and average length of contract; and (c) an analysis of the identified trends and conjuncture regarding precarious work and gender inequality.

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Does Corruption Matter for Unemployment in SADC Countries?

Review of Economic and Business Studies ◽

10.1515/rebs-2018-0074 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 65-92

Author(s):

Dopé M. Adjor ◽

Léleng Kebalo

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Empirical Investigation ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Development Programs ◽

Vector Autoregressive Model ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Income Inequalities ◽

Market Needs ◽

Main Factor

AbstractIs corruption, the main source of unemployment in the SADC countries? Do the effects of corruption outweigh those of income inequalities, human capital and government revenues in explaining the unemployment rate within the SADC area? Through these questions, the objective of our paper is to propose targeted policies that can enable decision-makers to reduce the unemployment rate within the SADC area. Through a panel vector autoregressive model, our empirical investigation on a sample of nine (09) SADC countries reveals that the education level and income inequalities contribute the most to explain the total unemployment rate. However, for the youth unemployment, corruption is the main factor followed by the level of education. To reduce total unemployment in the area, SADC countries need to reduce income inequalities and the mismatch between education and the labour market needs and/or countries’ development programs. For the youth unemployment, the reduction of corruption to all its forms should be the priority of political and economic decisionmakers.

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