Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework

2014 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 205-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Hejazi ◽  
James Edmonds ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Page Kyle ◽  
Evan Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modeling ◽  
Socioeconomic Scenarios ◽  
Global Water

scholarly journals MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 986-1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñigo Capellán-Pérez ◽  
Ignacio de Blas ◽  
Jaime Nieto ◽  
Carlos de Castro ◽  
Luis Javier Miguel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Integrated Assessment Modeling ◽  
Energy Transitions

Description of the open-source MEDEAS integrated assessment modeling framework, which focuses on the biophysical and economic dimensions, restrictions and interactions arising during energy transitions.

scholarly journals Extensive Evaluation of a Continental-Scale High-Resolution Hydrological Model Using Remote Sensing and Ground-Based Observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1247
Author(s):  
Bowen Zhu ◽  
Xianhong Xie ◽  
Chuiyu Lu ◽  
Tianjie Lei ◽  
Yibing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Large Domain ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
Mean Differences ◽  
Fine Resolution

Extreme hydrologic events are getting more frequent under a changing climate, and a reliable hydrological modeling framework is important to understand their mechanism. However, existing hydrological modeling frameworks are mostly constrained to a relatively coarse resolution, unrealistic input information, and insufficient evaluations, especially for the large domain, and they are, therefore, unable to address and reconstruct many of the water-related issues (e.g., flooding and drought). In this study, a 0.0625-degree (~6 km) resolution variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model developed for China from 1970 to 2016 was extensively evaluated against remote sensing and ground-based observations. A unique feature in this modeling framework is the incorporation of new remotely sensed vegetation and soil parameter dataset. To our knowledge, this constitutes the first application of VIC with such a long-term and fine resolution over a large domain, and more importantly, with a holistic system-evaluation leveraging the best available earth data. The evaluations using in-situ observations of streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture (SM) indicate a great improvement. The simulations are also consistent with satellite remote sensing products of ET and SM, because the mean differences between the VIC ET and the remote sensing ET range from −2 to 2 mm/day, and the differences for SM of the top thin layer range from −2 to 3 mm. Therefore, this continental-scale hydrological modeling framework is reliable and accurate, which can be used for various applications including extreme hydrological event detections.

scholarly journals High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

scholarly journals Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2877-2898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Müller Schmied ◽  
Linda Adam ◽  
Stephanie Eisner ◽  
Gabriel Fink ◽  
Martina Flörke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.

scholarly journals Influence of Customer Attrition on Diffusion of Business Education Services

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Nitin Sachdeva
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
New Product ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Diffusion Models ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Type I ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Customer Attrition ◽  
The Impact

Innovation diffusion models have been developed by many researchers during the past few decades based on the famous Bass (1969) model. Several such diffusion models have been developed in consideration of price, marketing efforts etc., however, it is hardly seen that customer attrition (disadoption) can play a significant role in long term growth process of any new product or service. This paper defines two types of disadoption process, Type I disadoption and Type II disadoption process, representing disadopters from innovators and imitators, respectively. We illustrate that there is an increase in the market size along with the adoption of new product and this increase is addressed in this paper. The explicit mean value function for the two types of disadoption processes is derived in this paper. The thrust of the research is on studying the management educational services in the Delhi/NCR region of India and the impact of disadoption on the long term growth of such services. In order to validate the proposed modeling framework, we make use of different goodness-of-fit criteria on primary data collected from an institute in Delhi/NCR.

scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Near Term

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

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