scholarly journals Increase in Probability of the Tsunami Formation Correct Forecast

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 2905-2909 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.I. Korochentsev ◽  
Xue Wei ◽  
E.V. Lisunov ◽  
P.P. Scherbakov ◽  
Zhao Yonglei
Keyword(s):  
Increase In Probability ◽  
Correct Forecast

Analyzing the accuracy of bank reliability assessment based on official reporting

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-348
Author(s):  
O.I. Razumova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
One Year ◽  
Key Indicators ◽  
Correct Forecast

Subject. The article considers ratings of banks' reliability. Objectives. The aim is to evaluate the accuracy of existing methodology for bank reliability assessment based on official reporting, to identify patterns between indicators and factors that can affect the financial sustainability of a bank. Methods. The study draws on the comparative analysis of key indicators of bank's financial statements one year prior to the introduction of provisional administration, and evaluates the results of existing methods for analyzing the financial standing of banks. Results. The findings show that those methods that use only official reporting to assess the reliability of banks are not sufficient for short-term forecasting of financial stability. Ratings of the majority of agencies that rest on official reporting have a high percentage of erroneous results, therefore, rating agencies are not able to predict the regulator's decisions regarding a credit institution. Conclusions. Currently, there are no universal methods to determine reliability, which would provide a correct forecast of deteriorated financial position of the bank. It is important to use a systems approach, where financial reporting is not a key component.

Ideology Restart: Liberal Project and Pandemic. Lessons of 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 35.5 ◽  
pp. 181-193
Author(s):  
Boris V. Mezhuev ◽  
Sergey V. Birrjukov ◽  
Vasily V. Vanchugov ◽  
Lyubov V. Ulyanova
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Present Article ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Ideological Transformation ◽  
Correct Forecast ◽  
Russian Idea

The present article is an abridged version of the paper of the “Russian Idea” site editors staff devoted to the ideological transformation in the Western countries and Russia in 2020, – the year of COVID pandemic and dramatic elections in the USA. The paper was drawn before the results of the elections were made public, but still it contains the correct forecast of the electoral victory of the liberal establishment representative. The authors also made the hypothesis confirmed by further course of events, that the winner of the ideological contest of 2020 would be the ideology described by the authors as the “new Atlantism”, – the doctrine about the Atlantic coalition interests priority over the national interests of the countries composing the coalition. The paper also forecasts the defeat of populism and Trumpism: in fact, having initiated the new cold war against China the supporters of those trends in the USA will surrender the initiative to their ideological opponents who are much more experienced in leading cold wars. On the basis of these conclusions the authors make the assumption of which new ideologies opposing the liberal establishment would be adopted by the conservative-minded intellectuals, and which conservative strategies could be of current importance for Russia as well.

scholarly journals Go-activation endures following the presentation of a stop-signal: evidence from startle

2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (1) ◽  
pp. 403-411
Author(s):  
Neil M. Drummond ◽  
Erin K. Cressman ◽  
Anthony N. Carlsen
Keyword(s):  
Acoustic Stimulus ◽  
Stop Signal ◽  
Stop Signal Task ◽  
Overt Response ◽  
Control Behavior ◽  
Startling Acoustic Stimulus ◽  
Increase In Probability ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
Take All

It has been proposed that, in a stop-signal task (SST), independent go- and stop-processes “race” to control behavior. If the go-process wins, an overt response is produced, whereas, if the stop-process wins, the response is withheld. One prediction that follows from this proposal is that, if the activation associated with one process is enhanced, it is more likely to win the race. We looked to determine whether these initiation and inhibition processes (and thus response outcomes) could be manipulated by using a startling acoustic stimulus (SAS), which has been shown to provide additional response activation. In the present study, participants were to respond to a visual go-stimulus; however, if a subsequent stop-signal appeared, they were to inhibit the response. The stop-signal was presented at a delay corresponding to a probability of responding of 0.4 (determined from a baseline block of trials). On stop-trials, a SAS was presented either simultaneously with the go-signal or stop-signal or 100, 150, or 200 ms following the stop-signal. Results showed that presenting a SAS during stop-trials led to an increase in probability of responding when presented with or following the stop-signal. The latency of SAS responses at the stop-signal + 150 ms and stop-signal + 200 ms probe times suggests that they would have been voluntarily inhibited but instead were involuntarily initiated by the SAS. Thus results demonstrate that go-activation endures even 200 ms following a stop-signal and remains accessible well after the response has been inhibited, providing evidence against a winner-take-all race between independent go- and stop-processes. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this study, a startling acoustic stimulus (SAS) was used to determine whether response outcome could be manipulated in a stop-signal task. Results revealed that presenting a SAS during stop-signal trials led to an increase in probability of responding even when presented 200 ms following the stop-signal. The latency of SAS responses indicates that go-activation remains accessible and modifiable well after the response is voluntarily inhibited, providing evidence against an irrevocable commitment to inhibition.

scholarly journals VII.—Notes on the Dynamics of Cyclones and Anticyclones

1905 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Aitken
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Movements ◽  
Earth’S Atmosphere ◽  
Earth's Atmosphere ◽  
Correct Forecast

The vertical movements of the earth's atmosphere from which the energy is derived which causes the horizontal movements of the air which we call winds, and by means of which the moisture evaporated from the surface of land and water is collected and carried to the higher regions of the atmosphere, where it is condensed to cloud and again distributed in the form of rain over the earth's surface, are of great interest, and a thorough knowledge of the laws governing these vertical movements is necessary to enable us to arrive at a correct forecast of the coming weather over any area.

A SIMPLE FORECASTING GAME

2006 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 279-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. ANDRECUT
Keyword(s):  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Inductive Learning ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Future State ◽  
Unexpected Consequence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Correct Forecast

We consider a population of Boolean agents playing a simple forecasting game, in which the goal of each agent is to give a correct forecast of the future state of its neighbors. The numerical results show that by using a simple inductive learning algorithm the agents are able to accurately achive the goal of the game. However, this remarkable performance has an unexpected consequence: by learning to forecast the future, the agents dynamics freezes up at the end of the game; the only way to regain their dynamics is to forget what they have learned.

Extended Range Forecast of Monsoon at Smaller Spatial Domains over India for Application in Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Pattanaik ◽  
Ashish Alone ◽  
Praveen Kumar ◽  
R. Phani ◽  
Raju Mandal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Spatial Domains ◽  
Northwest India ◽  
Correct Forecast ◽  
Subdivision Level ◽  
Onset Of Monsoon

Abstract The performance of operational extended range forecast (ERF) issued by IMD is evaluated for the southwest monsoon 2020. The early onset of monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the normal onset of monsoon over Kerala with slightly rapid progress northward are very well captured in the ERF with two to three weeks lead time. The ERF also captured very well the transitions from normal to weaker phase of monsoon in July, the active phase of monsoon in entire August was well anticipated in ERF with a lead time of 3 weeks. The active monsoon condition in the second half of September associated with delayed withdrawal from northwest India was also reasonably well captured in the ERF. Quantitatively, the ERF shows significant skill up to three weeks on all India levels. The spatial distribution of met-subdivision level mean forecast skill of predicting above normal, normal and below normal categories in terms of correct (forecast and observed category matching) and partially correct (forecast and observed category out by one category) for the 36 subdivisions during the entire monsoon season of 2020 is found to be 89%, 83%, 80% and 78% for week 1 to week 4 forecasts respectively. The wrong forecasts (forecast and observed category out by two categories) are found to be between 11% in week 1 to 22% in week 4 forecast. Thus, the met-subdivision level forecast shows useful skill and is being used operationally for agrometeorological advisory services of IMD.

Forecasting Practices in Textile and Apparel Export Industry a Systematic Review

2022 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Textile And Apparel ◽  
Forecast Technique ◽  
Correct Forecast

Sustainability in textile and apparel is an ideal that requires organizational effort starting from eco-design, encompassing manufacturing, distribution, and consumption. However, in the circular economy, the idea further goes to reuse the raw material. Sustainability is still an evolving subject in apparel and textile, which needs to investigate from many angles. Excess inventory at the supplier's end also impacts sustainability and needs due attention from researchers and practitioners to ponder. Applying the correct forecast technique and minimum errors results in better financial performance and reduced environmental pollution, impacting the triple bottom line in the true sense. The current study uses a systematic review on textile and apparel forecasting, highlighting the earlier research, thus contributing to the literature on sustainability and supply chain management.

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