scholarly journals Reducing Tropical Cyclone Prediction Errors Using Machine Learning Approaches

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 314-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Richman ◽  
Lance M. Leslie ◽  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Cyclone Prediction

scholarly journals Comparison of Implicit vs. Explicit Regime Identification in Machine Learning Methods for Solar Irradiance Prediction

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler McCandless ◽  
Susan Dettling ◽  
Sue Ellen Haupt
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Models

This work compares the solar power forecasting performance of tree-based methods that include implicit regime-based models to explicit regime separation methods that utilize both unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. Previous studies have shown an improvement utilizing a regime-based machine learning approach in a climate with diverse cloud conditions. This study compares the machine learning approaches for solar power prediction at the Shagaya Renewable Energy Park in Kuwait, which is in an arid desert climate characterized by abundant sunshine. The regime-dependent artificial neural network models undergo a comprehensive parameter and hyperparameter tuning analysis to minimize the prediction errors on a test dataset. The final results that compare the different methods are computed on an independent validation dataset. The results show that the tree-based methods, the regression model tree approach, performs better than the explicit regime-dependent approach. These results appear to be a function of the predominantly sunny conditions that limit the ability of an unsupervised technique to separate regimes for which the relationship between the predictors and the predictand would differ for the supervised learning technique.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Approaches for Detecting Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Satellite Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsang Kim ◽  
Myung-Sook Park ◽  
Jungho Im ◽  
Seonyoung Park ◽  
Myong-In Lee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Yearly Variation ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
First Time

This study compared detection skill for tropical cyclone (TC) formation using models based on three different machine learning (ML) algorithms-decision trees (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machines (SVM)-and a model based on Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Eight predictors were derived from WindSat satellite measurements of ocean surface wind and precipitation over the western North Pacific for 2005–2009. All of the ML approaches performed better with significantly higher hit rates ranging from 94 to 96% compared with LDA performance (~77%), although false alarm rate by MLs is slightly higher (21–28%) than that by LDA (~13%). Besides, MLs could detect TC formation at the time as early as 26–30 h before the first time diagnosed as tropical depression by the JTWC best track, which was also 5 to 9 h earlier than that by LDA. The skill differences across MLs were relatively smaller than difference between MLs and LDA. Large yearly variation in forecast lead time was common in all models due to the limitation in sampling from orbiting satellite. This study highlights that ML approaches provide an improved skill for detecting TC formation compared with conventional linear approaches.

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 1850132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harpreet Singh ◽  
Prashant Singh Rana ◽  
Urvinder Singh
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Drug Synergy ◽  
Learning Techniques

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug–drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

scholarly journals Frontal cortex function derives from hierarchical predictive coding

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H Alexander ◽  
Joshua W Brown
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Working Memory ◽  
Prefrontal Cortex ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
Predictive Coding ◽  
Memory Storage ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Hierarchical Groups ◽  
Goal Directed Behavior

The frontal lobes are essential for human volition and goal-directed behavior, yet their function remains unclear. While various models have highlighted working memory, reinforcement learning, and cognitive control as key functions, a single framework for interpreting the range of effects observed in prefrontal cortex has yet to emerge. Here we show that a simple computational motif based on predictive coding can be stacked hierarchically to learn and perform arbitrarily complex goal-directed behavior. The resulting Hierarchical Error Representation (HER) model simulates a wide array of findings from fMRI, ERP, single-units, and neuropsychological studies of both lateral and medial prefrontal cortex. Additionally, the model compares favorably with current machine learning approaches, learning more rapidly and with comparable performance, while self-organizing representations into efficient hierarchical groups and managing working memory storage. By reconceptualizing lateral prefrontal activity as anticipating prediction errors, the HER model provides a novel unifying account of prefrontal cortex function with broad implications both for understanding the frontal cortex and building more powerful machine learning applications.

scholarly journals Learning from machine learning: prediction of age-related athletic performance decline trajectories

GeroScience ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Hoog Antink ◽  
Anne K. Braczynski ◽  
Bergita Ganse
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Single Measurement ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Decline Curve ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Decline Rate ◽  
Performance Decline

AbstractFactors that determine individual age-related decline rates in physical performance are poorly understood and prediction poses a challenge. Linear and quadratic regression models are usually applied, but often show high prediction errors for individual athletes. Machine learning approaches may deliver more accurate predictions and help to identify factors that determine performance decline rates. We hypothesized that it is possible to predict the performance development of a master athlete from a single measurement, that prediction by a machine learning approach is superior to prediction by the average decline curve or an individually shifted decline curve, and that athletes with a higher starting performance show a slower performance decline than those with a lower performance. The machine learning approach was implemented using a multilayer neuronal network. Results showed that performance prediction from a single measurement is possible and that the prediction by a machine learning approach was superior to the other models. The estimated performance decline rate was highest in athletes with a high starting performance and a low starting age, as well as in those with a low starting performance and high starting age, while the lowest decline rate was found for athletes with a high starting performance and a high starting age. Machine learning was superior and predicted trajectories with significantly lower prediction errors compared to conventional approaches. New insights into factors determining decline trajectories were identified by visualization of the model outputs. Machine learning models may be useful in revealing unknown factors that determine the age-related performance decline.

scholarly journals Systematic evaluation of supervised machine learning for sample origin prediction using metagenomic sequencing data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-yu Chen ◽  
Andrea D Tyler
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Detection Sensitivity ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Metagenomic Sequencing ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Microbial Abundance ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Analytical Approaches

Abstract Background:The advent of metagenomic sequencing provides microbial abundance patterns that can be leveraged for sample origin prediction. Supervised machine learning classification approaches have been reported to predict sample origin accurately when the origin has been previously sampled. Using metagenomic datasets provided by the 2019 CAMDA challenge, we evaluated the influence of technical, analytical and machine learning approaches for result interpretation and source prediction of new origins.Results:Comparison between 16S rRNA amplicon and shotgun sequencing approaches as well as metagenomic analytical tools showed differences in measured microbial abundance of the same samples, especially for organisms present at low abundance. Shotgun sequence data analyzed using Kraken2 and Bracken taxonomic annotation, had higher detection sensitivity than did other methods. As classification models are limited to labeling previously trained origins, we proposed an alternative approach using Lasso-regularized multivariate regression to predict geographic coordinates for comparison. In both models, the prediction errors were much higher in Leave-1-city-out than in 10-fold cross validation, the former of which realistically forecasted the difficulty in accurately predicting samples from new origins than pre-trained origins. The challenge was further confirmed using mystery samples obtained from new origins. Overall, prediction performances between regression and classification models, as measured by mean squared error, were comparable on mystery samples. Due to higher prediction errors for samples from new origins, we provided an additional strategy based on prediction ambiguity to infer whether a sample is from a new origin for practical applications. Lastly, we showed increased prediction error when data from a different sequencing protocol were included as training data.Conclusions:Here we highlighted the capacity of predicting sample origin accurately with pre-trained origins and the challenge of predicting new origins through both regression and classification models. Overall, the work provided a summary evaluation of sequencing techniques, protocol, taxonomic analytical approaches, and machine learning approaches to inform future designs in metagenomic prediction of sample origin.

Multiple vehicles detection and tracking for intelligent transport systems using machine learning approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 214-224
Author(s):  
Bui Ngoc Dung ◽  
Manh Dzung Lai ◽  
Tran Vu Hieu ◽  
Nguyen Binh T. H.
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Subtraction Method ◽  
Intelligent Transport Systems ◽  
Intelligent Transport ◽  
Detection And Tracking ◽  
Multiple Vehicles

Video surveillance is emerging research field of intelligent transport systems. This paper presents some techniques which use machine learning and computer vision in vehicles detection and tracking. Firstly the machine learning approaches using Haar-like features and Ada-Boost algorithm for vehicle detection are presented. Secondly approaches to detect vehicles using the background subtraction method based on Gaussian Mixture Model and to track vehicles using optical flow and multiple Kalman filters were given. The method takes advantages of distinguish and tracking multiple vehicles individually. The experimental results demonstrate high accurately of the method.

Mol2vec: Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach with Chemical Intuition

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Jaeger ◽  
Simone Fulle ◽  
Samo Turk
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Unsupervised Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Representations ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Vector Representations

Inspired by natural language processing techniques we here introduce Mol2vec which is an unsupervised machine learning approach to learn vector representations of molecular substructures. Similarly, to the Word2vec models where vectors of closely related words are in close proximity in the vector space, Mol2vec learns vector representations of molecular substructures that are pointing in similar directions for chemically related substructures. Compounds can finally be encoded as vectors by summing up vectors of the individual substructures and, for instance, feed into supervised machine learning approaches to predict compound properties. The underlying substructure vector embeddings are obtained by training an unsupervised machine learning approach on a so-called corpus of compounds that consists of all available chemical matter. The resulting Mol2vec model is pre-trained once, yields dense vector representations and overcomes drawbacks of common compound feature representations such as sparseness and bit collisions. The prediction capabilities are demonstrated on several compound property and bioactivity data sets and compared with results obtained for Morgan fingerprints as reference compound representation. Mol2vec can be easily combined with ProtVec, which employs the same Word2vec concept on protein sequences, resulting in a proteochemometric approach that is alignment independent and can be thus also easily used for proteins with low sequence similarities.

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