Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 499 ◽  
pp. 288-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangqiang Liu ◽  
Yu Wei ◽  
Yongfei Chen ◽  
Jiang Yu ◽  
Yang Hu
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Chinese Stock Market

scholarly journals Extreme value theory in emerging markets: Evidence from the Montenegrin stock exchange

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (206) ◽  
pp. 87-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julija Cerovic ◽  
Vesna Karadzic
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Peaks Over Threshold ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Block Maxima

The concept of Value at Risk(VaR) estimates the maximum loss of a financial position at a given time for a given probability. This paper considers the adequacy of the methods that are the basis of extreme value theory in the Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether the peaks-over-threshold method outperforms the block maxima method in evaluation of Value at Risk in emerging stock markets such as the Montenegrin market. The daily return of the Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January 2004 - February 2014. Results of the Kupiec test show that the peaks-over-threshold method is significantly better than the block maxima method, but both methods fail to pass the Christoffersen independence test and joint test due to the lack of accuracy in exception clustering when measuring Value at Risk. Although better, the peaks-over-threshold method still cannot be treated as an accurate VaR model for the Montenegrin frontier stock market.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document