scholarly journals Translation of the UK Paediatric Influenza Primary School Vaccination Programme to 13 European Countries Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. A407
Author(s):  
L Gerlier ◽  
J Hackett ◽  
RW Lawson ◽  
S Dos Santos Mendes ◽  
M Eichner
10.36469/9802 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-124
Author(s):  
Laetitia Gerlier ◽  
Judith Hackett ◽  
Richard Lawson ◽  
Sofia Dos Santos Mendes ◽  
Martin Eichner

Objectives: To simulate the impact of a pediatric influenza vaccination programme using quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) in Europe by applying coverage rates achieved in the United Kingdom during the 2014–2015 season and to compare the model outcomes to the UK results. Methods: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model adapted to the demography, contact patterns and influenza incidence of 13 European countries, with a 10-year horizon. The reference strategy was the unchanged country-specific coverage rate, using quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (assumed efficacy against infection from 45% in 1-year-old children to 60% in healthy adults). In the evaluated strategy, 56.8% of 5–10-year-old children were additionally vaccinated with QLAIV (assumed efficacy 80%), as was the case in 2014–2015 in the United Kingdom’s primary school pilot areas. Symptomatic influenza cases and associated medical resources (primary care consultations [PCC], hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) were calculated. The evaluated versus reference strategies were compared using odds ratios (ORs) for PCC in the target (aged 5–10-years) and non-target adult (aged >17 years) populations as well as number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with QLAIV to avert one PCC, hospitalization or ICU admission. Model outcomes, averaged over 10 seasons, were compared with published real-life data from the United Kingdom for the 2014–2015 season. Results: Over 13 countries and 10 years, the evaluated strategy prevented 32.8 million of symptomatic influenza cases (172.3 vs 205.2 million). The resulting range of ORs for PCC was 0.18–0.48 among children aged 5–10-years, and the published OR in the United Kingdom was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [0.01; 0.62]). In adults, the range of ORs for PCC was 0.60–0.91 (UK OR=0.41 [0.19; 0.86]). NNV ranges were 6–19 per averted PCC (UK NNV=16), 530–1524 per averted hospitalization (UK NNV=317) and 5298–15 241 per averted ICU admission (UK NNV=2205). Conclusions: Across a range of European countries, our model shows the beneficial direct and indirect impact of a paediatric vaccination programme using QLAIV in primary school-aged children, consistent with what was observed during a single season in the United Kingdom. Recommendations for the implementation of pediatric vaccination programmes are, therefore, supported in Europe.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-58
Author(s):  
Sammer Tang ◽  
Kirsty Morgan
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Naomi R Smart ◽  
Claire J Horwell ◽  
Trevor S Smart ◽  
Karen S Galea

Air pollution is a major health problem and children are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. Facemasks are one form of protection but, to be effective, they need to filter out airborne pollutants, fit the face well and be wearable. In this pilot study, we assess the perceived wearability of three facemasks (Vogmask, TuHao and ReSpimask) marketed in the UK as being designed to protect children against exposure to air pollution. Twenty-four primary school children wore each facemask during a standardised walking and running activity. After each activity, the children were asked to rate facemask wearability in terms of parameters, such as perceived comfort, hotness, breathability and fit. At the end of the trial, the children compared and identified their preferred facemask. The main complaint about the facemasks was the children’s faces being too hot. The ReSpimask was most frequently reported as being perceived to be the hardest to breathe through. The TuHao facemask was the only adjustable strap mask assessed but was reported to be difficult to adjust. Facemasks with a nose clip were frequently rated highest for fit (TuHao and Vogmask). The patterned, cloth fabric Vogmask had significantly higher ratings for appearance and perceived fit. The results show children’s perceptions of facemasks are highly affected by the facemask’s design, hotness and perceived breathability. By making children’s facemasks more appealing, breathable, cooler and improving their fit, wearability may be improved.


2006 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. A243-A244 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Largeron ◽  
M Trichard ◽  
H Miadi-Fargier ◽  
A Trancard ◽  
A D'Ausilio ◽  
...  

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
William K Kay ◽  
Richard Wilkins

On the basis of a consideration of the processes of reading and comprehending and in the light of the UK Government's literacy drive, it is argued that Religious Education ought to be better equipped to present the Bible to children of primary school age.


Author(s):  
Miguel De la Cruz ◽  
Stephanos Theodossiades ◽  
Homer Rahnejat ◽  
Patrick Kelly

Manual transmission gear rattle is the result of repetitive impacts of gear meshing teeth within their backlash. This NVH phenomenon is a major industrial concern and can occur under various loaded or unloaded conditions. It fundamentally differs from other transient NVH phenomena, such as clonk or thud, which are due to impulsive actions. However, they all have their lowest common denominator in the action of contact/impact forces through lubricated contacts. Various forms of rattle have, therefore, been defined: idle rattle, drive rattle, creep rattle and over-run rattle. This paper presents a dynamic transmission model for creep rattle conditions (engaged gear at low engine RPM). The model takes into account the lubricated impact force between a gear teeth pair during a meshing cycle as well as the friction between their flanks. Hertzian contact conditions are applied to the gear pair along the torque path. Additionally, isoviscous hydrodynamic regime of lubrication is assumed for unselected (loose gear pairs) with lightly loaded impact conditions. The highly non-linear impacts induce a range of system response frequencies. These include engine order harmonics, harmonics of meshing frequency and natural frequencies related to contact stiffness. The last of these are dependent on the contact geometry and lubricant rheology. The analysis includes lubricant viscosity variation due to generated contact pressures as well as temperature. For loose gears, subject to oscillations on their retaining bearings, bearing friction is also considered.


Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6538) ◽  
pp. eabg3055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Rosanna C. Barnard ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
...  

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Beverley

Abstract T. processionea, commonly known as the oak processionary moth, is a major pest in many European countries and threatens the health of oak trees. The common and scientific names of T. processionea refer to the behaviour of the larvae to form long processions. The larvae cause severe defoliation, reducing the viability of oak trees. They also pose a risk to both human and animal health because they shed poisonous hairs, which can result in severe allergic reactions, amongst other health problems. The moth is native to central and southern Europe but is now present in almost all European countries and also in parts of the Middle East. EPPO issued a Pest Risk Analysis in 2007 for the UK in response to infestations of the species in Europe from 2006. At this time, infestations of the moth were observed on a range of oak (Quercus) species in London. The adult males are strong fliers and can fly long distances, such as from France to the UK (Evans, 2007). Host plants of this pest include many species of deciduous Quercus, and to a much lesser degree, Betula, Carpinus, Castanea, Corylus, Crataegus, Robinia and Fagus; plants commonly found in forests, woods or ornamental plantations in the UK, for example (Evans, 2007). Therefore, areas where these plants are present and offer a suitable climate for pest development are likely to be under threat from T. processionea. Various pines have been reported as hosts, but such records are suspect and are probably the result of confusion with the pine processionary (Thaumetopoea pityocampa).


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