scholarly journals Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies

2011 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 537-551 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Varella Mollick ◽  
René Cabral ◽  
Francisco G. Carneiro
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Output Growth

scholarly journals Does inflation targeting work in emerging East-Asian economies?

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 599-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Sek ◽  
Mun Har
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Lower Variability ◽  
East Asian Economies

This paper evaluates on the performance of the inflation-targeting regime in three emerging East-Asian economies that have experienced changes in monetary policy regimes, from rigidities to a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, after the financial crisis of 1997-98. In particular, the evaluation focuses on the inter-relationship between inflation and the output growth/gap in these emerging economies between the pre- and post-inflation targeting periods. A bivariate GARCH (1,1) model is applied. The results reveal lower variability in inflation and output growth after the implementation of the inflation targeting regime. The persistency of inflation and output also decline. The study finds no evidence of greater disinflation cost experienced in these economies after the implementation of the inflation-targeting regime. Overall, the results imply that inflation targeting works well in these emerging markets.

Gains from Integration? An Empirical Hint from the Eurozone

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-512
Author(s):  
Ku-Hsieh Chen ◽  
Jen-Chi Cheng ◽  
Joe-Ming Lee ◽  
Chih-Chun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Productivity Gain ◽  
Group A ◽  
Degree Of Risk

Has the eurozone (EZ) really gained from integration? This study applied two econometric frameworks, mGARCH and gMMPI, to test this hypothesis, using panel data that span 1996–2014, a total of 19 years, involving the EZ, EU, G8, G20 and some emerging economies. The empirical outcomes initially showed that the EZ economies experienced neither superior output growth nor a better capital market return than non-EZ economies or the pre-EZ period. They further suggested that each EZ country had a higher degree of risk bearing and, as a group, a greater risk linkage. Moreover, the results indicated that the EZ had a higher productivity gain if the risk premium was counted as part of productivity. Nonetheless, the EZ did not show a substantial productivity gain when the effect of the risk factor was controlled. The ratio of risk bearing to risk premium gain was shown to be 1 to 0.97. The general conclusion is that, other than the risk premium, there was no extra productivity gain for the EZ from taking the risk.

scholarly journals Food prices and inflation targeting in emerging economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 108-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Pourroy ◽  
Benjamin Carton ◽  
Dramane Coulibaly
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Food Prices

scholarly journals How useful is the yield spread as a predictor of growth in Australia?

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Chen ◽  
Abbas Valadkhani ◽  
Bligh Grant
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Predictive Content

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of the yield spread for forecasting growth in the Australian economy since 1969. Design/methodology/approach – This paper applies time series analysis to evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting power of the spread-growth nexus in Australia for the period spanning from 1969 to 2014. Findings – This paper concludes that the spread serves as a useful predictor of growth in output, private dwellings, private fixed capital formation, and inventories in Australia, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Its predictive content is not sensitive to the inclusion of monetary policy variables or the switch to the inflation-targeting regime by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the early 1990s. Originality/value – This paper provides significant evidence to policy makers and market participants on the usefulness of the spread in forecasting output growth for up to eight quarters ahead.

scholarly journals Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis

2014 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjan Petreski
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Lower Amount ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Growth Decline ◽  
Independent States

The objective of this paper is to assess if inflation targeting post-communist economies performed better, in terms of output growth, during the crisis than their non-inflation targeting counterparts. The paper also puts the issue in the context of the preconditions of inflation targeters to adopt this regime. 26 post-communist economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are analyzed during the ongoing economic crisis. Results suggest that inflation targeters of those countries performed worse than non-inflation targeters. The growth decline in inflation targeters postcommunist economies has been estimated to be deeper by about four percentage points than that in non-inflation targeters. The study finds very limited role of the preconditions for growth decline. Only the lower amount of monetary financing of the budget may have contributed in inflation-targeting countries to have gone through the crisis better.

scholarly journals Excess Real Interest Rates and the Inflation Targeting Regime in Brazil: Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness and Rentiers’ Interests

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Fernando Ferrari Filho ◽  
Marcelo Milan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate

Brazil has had, since the middle 1990s, one of the highest real interest rates in the world, yet not one of the lowest inflation rates. By the end of that decade, an inflation targeting regime (ITR) was introduced. Real interest rates have remained extremely high for international standards, while macroeconomic performance has been dismal on the same grounds. This article argues that these results can be explained by, among others reasons, pressures from the rentiers to frame monetary policy in a way to sustain very high interest earnings in a context where inflation is not very sensitive to monetary policy instruments. Under the ITR, the interest rate seems to have been kept above what would be required to maintain low inflation under normal conditions (even if one assumes a demand-pull inflation, which is not necessarily the case), with a potentially negative impact on growth and employment. This is interpreted as an indicator of monetary policy ineffectiveness. On the empirical ground, this article compares interest rate, inflation, unemployment, and real output growth for Brazil with both ITR and non-ITR countries selected by judgment sampling.

Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 266-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Nicolay ◽  
Ana Jordânia de Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Central Bank Communication

PurposeStudies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity.Design/methodology/approachThe work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations.FindingsThe findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal.Practical implicationsThis paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank.Originality/valueThere are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.

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