Oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets under uncertainty and regime-switching

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 28-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Roubaud ◽  
Mohamed Arouri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Oil Prices

ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA HARGA MINYAK, PASAR SAHAM, DAN NILAI TUKAR DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Kurnianti ◽  
Idris Idris
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship of causality between oil prices, stocks market, and exchange rates in Indonesia using VAR model. The data used in this study is time series data from January 2014 until December 2018 that was obtained from the relevant institutions. The variables use are oil prices (X1), stocks market (X2), and exchange rates (X3). The method used in this study is Vector Auto Reggression (VAR). The finding has shown that there are no causality relationship between the oil prices, stock markets, and exchanger rates. The finding also shown that there is only directional relationship between exchange rates with stocks market.

scholarly journals Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets

2012 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Abul Basher ◽  
Alfred A. Haug ◽  
Perry Sadorsky
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets

scholarly journals Analyzing Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rates Movements in Korea using Markov Regime-Switching Models

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Kim ◽  
Choi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Regime Shift ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Markov Regime Switching ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Shift Behavior ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Auto Regressive

Korea imports all of its crude oil, and is the world's fifth largest oil importing country. We analyze the effects of oil prices, interest rates, consumer price indexes (CPIs), and industrial production indexes (IPIs) on the regime shift behavior of the Korean exchange rates against the USA from January 1991 to March 2019. We use the Markov regime switching model (MRSM) to detect the regime shift behavior of the movements of Korean exchange rates. In order to select the optimal MRSM, we fit a total of 30 models considering four explanatory variables. The selected model based on Akaike information criteria (AIC) and maximum log likelihood (MLL) includes the log-differentials of oil prices, the log-differentials of CPIs compared to those of the US, and its own auto-regressive terms. Based on the selected MRSM model, throughout all markets, we find evidence to support the existence of two distinct regimes: a stable regime with low-volatility, and an unstable regime with high-volatility. The regime with high-volatility includes the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 in the Korean exchange rates market. In the regime with low-volatility, the Korean exchange rates are not significantly influenced by any of the explanatory variables, except for its own auto-regressive terms. In the regime with high-volatility, the Korean exchange rates are significantly influenced by the CPIs and oil prices. The transition probability from the regime with low-volatility to the regime with high-volatility is about ten times that of the opposite case.

An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

scholarly journals The Regime-Switching Behaviour of Exchange Rates and Frontier Stock Market Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Maud Korley ◽  
Evangelos Giouvris
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Var Model ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fx Market

Frontier markets have become increasingly investible, providing diversification opportunities; however, there is very little research (with conflicting results) on the relationship between Foreign Exchange (FX) and frontier stock markets. Understanding this relationship is important for both international investor and policymakers. The Markov-switching Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model is used to examine the relationship between FX and frontier stock markets. There are two distinct regimes in both the frontier stock market and the FX market: a low-volatility and a high-volatility regime. In contrast with emerging markets characterised by “high volatility/low return”, frontier stock markets provide high (positive) returns in the high-volatility regime. The high-volatility regime is less persistent than the low-volatility regime, contrary to conventional wisdom. The Markov Switching VAR model indicates that the relationship between the FX market and the stock market is regime-dependent. Changes in the stock market have a significant impact on the FX market during both normal (calm) and crisis (turbulent) periods. However, the reverse effect is weak or nonexistent. The stock-oriented model is the prevalent model for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Irrespective of the regime, there is no relationship between the stock market and the FX market in Cote d’Ivoire. Our results are robust in model selection and degree of comovement.

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