Uncertainty propagation in puff-based dispersion models using polynomial chaos

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 1608-1618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umamaheswara Konda ◽  
Tarunraj Singh ◽  
Puneet Singla ◽  
Peter Scott
Keyword(s):  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Dispersion Models

scholarly journals Deep Neural Network and Polynomial Chaos Expansion-Based Surrogate Models for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Propagation: An Application to a Rockfill Dam

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1830
Author(s):  
Gullnaz Shahzadi ◽  
Azzeddine Soulaïmani
Keyword(s):  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Surrogate Models ◽  
Polynomial Chaos Expansion ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Chaos Expansion ◽  
Rockfill Dam ◽  
Parametric Studies ◽  
The Impact

Computational modeling plays a significant role in the design of rockfill dams. Various constitutive soil parameters are used to design such models, which often involve high uncertainties due to the complex structure of rockfill dams comprising various zones of different soil parameters. This study performs an uncertainty analysis and a global sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of constitutive soil parameters on the behavior of a rockfill dam. A Finite Element code (Plaxis) is utilized for the structure analysis. A database of the computed displacements at inclinometers installed in the dam is generated and compared to in situ measurements. Surrogate models are significant tools for approximating the relationship between input soil parameters and displacements and thereby reducing the computational costs of parametric studies. Polynomial chaos expansion and deep neural networks are used to build surrogate models to compute the Sobol indices required to identify the impact of soil parameters on dam behavior.

Comparative Analysis of Methodologies for Uncertainty Propagation and Quantification

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandra Cuneo ◽  
Alberto Traverso ◽  
Shahrokh Shahpar
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Design ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Optimization Under Uncertainty ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Aleatory And Epistemic Uncertainty

In engineering design, uncertainty is inevitable and can cause a significant deviation in the performance of a system. Uncertainty in input parameters can be categorized into two groups: aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The work presented here is focused on aleatory uncertainty, which can cause natural, unpredictable and uncontrollable variations in performance of the system under study. Such uncertainty can be quantified using statistical methods, but the main obstacle is often the computational cost, because the representative model is typically highly non-linear and complex. Therefore, it is necessary to have a robust tool that can perform the uncertainty propagation with as few evaluations as possible. In the last few years, different methodologies for uncertainty propagation and quantification have been proposed. The focus of this study is to evaluate four different methods to demonstrate strengths and weaknesses of each approach. The first method considered is Monte Carlo simulation, a sampling method that can give high accuracy but needs a relatively large computational effort. The second method is Polynomial Chaos, an approximated method where the probabilistic parameters of the response function are modelled with orthogonal polynomials. The third method considered is Mid-range Approximation Method. This approach is based on the assembly of multiple meta-models into one model to perform optimization under uncertainty. The fourth method is the application of the first two methods not directly to the model but to a response surface representing the model of the simulation, to decrease computational cost. All these methods have been applied to a set of analytical test functions and engineering test cases. Relevant aspects of the engineering design and analysis such as high number of stochastic variables and optimised design problem with and without stochastic design parameters were assessed. Polynomial Chaos emerges as the most promising methodology, and was then applied to a turbomachinery test case based on a thermal analysis of a high-pressure turbine disk.

Efficient uncertainty propagation for MAPOD via polynomial chaos-based Kriging

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaosong Du ◽  
Leifur Leifsson
Keyword(s):  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Kriging Model ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Benchmark Problems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Purpose Model-assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) is an important approach used as part of assessing the reliability of nondestructive testing systems. The purpose of this paper is to apply the polynomial chaos-based Kriging (PCK) metamodeling method to MAPOD for the first time to enable efficient uncertainty propagation, which is currently a major bottleneck when using accurate physics-based models. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the state-of-the-art Kriging, polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) and PCK are applied to “a^ vs a”-based MAPOD of ultrasonic testing (UT) benchmark problems. In particular, Kriging interpolation matches the observations well, while PCE is capable of capturing the global trend accurately. The proposed UP approach for MAPOD using PCK adopts the PCE bases as the trend function of the universal Kriging model, aiming at combining advantages of both metamodels. Findings To reach a pre-set accuracy threshold, the PCK method requires 50 per cent fewer training points than the PCE method, and around one order of magnitude fewer than Kriging for the test cases considered. The relative differences on the key MAPOD metrics compared with those from the physics-based models are controlled within 1 per cent. Originality/value The contributions of this work are the first application of PCK metamodel for MAPOD analysis, the first comparison between PCK with the current state-of-the-art metamodels for MAPOD and new MAPOD results for the UT benchmark cases.

An enhanced data-driven polynomial chaos method for uncertainty propagation

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenggang Wang ◽  
Fenfen Xiong ◽  
Huan Jiang ◽  
Jianmei Song
Keyword(s):  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Data Driven

scholarly journals Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computational Models in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo Tapia ◽  
Wayne King ◽  
Luke Johnson ◽  
Raymundo Arroyave ◽  
Ibrahim Karaman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Additive Manufacturing ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Powder Bed Fusion ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Powder Bed ◽  
Model Code ◽  
Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Computational models for simulating physical phenomena during laser-based powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (L-PBF AM) processes are essential for enhancing our understanding of these phenomena, enable process optimization, and accelerate qualification and certification of AM materials and parts. It is a well-known fact that such models typically involve multiple sources of uncertainty that originate from different sources such as model parameters uncertainty, or model/code inadequacy, among many others. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a broad field that focuses on characterizing such uncertainties in order to maximize the benefit of these models. Although UQ has been a center theme in computational models associated with diverse fields such as computational fluid dynamics and macro-economics, it has not yet been fully exploited with computational models for advanced manufacturing. The current study presents one among the first efforts to conduct uncertainty propagation (UP) analysis in the context of L-PBF AM. More specifically, we present a generalized polynomial chaos expansions (gPCE) framework to assess the distributions of melt pool dimensions due to uncertainty in input model parameters. We develop the methodology and then employ it to validate model predictions, both through benchmarking them against Monte Carlo (MC) methods and against experimental data acquired from an experimental testbed.

scholarly journals Dynamic system uncertainty propagation using polynomial chaos

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1156-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenfen Xiong ◽  
Shishi Chen ◽  
Ying Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic System ◽  
Polynomial Chaos ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
System Uncertainty
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