Impacts of air pollution on cultural heritage corrosion at European level: What has been achieved and what are the future scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 586-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Di Turo ◽  
Chiara Proietti ◽  
Augusto Screpanti ◽  
M. Francesca Fornasier ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
European Level ◽  
The Future

Impacts of air pollution related to fine particulate matter on present and future European urban mortality: a renewable energy mitigation scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco ◽  
Ulas Im ◽  
Laura Palacios-Peña ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Fine Particles ◽  
Urban Air ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Business As Usual

<p>Cities are hotspots for exposure to air pollution worldwide. The impact of atmospheric pollutants on human health is a main topic of concern related to health issues in urban areas; and there evidence that this problem will become worse under future climate change scenarios. One of the main anthropogenic pollutants released at cities that</p><p>impacts human mortality is particulate matter (PM). The riskiness of PM resides in both its composition and size. In particular, this study is focused on fine particles (particles with a diameter of 2.5μm or less, PM<sub>2.5</sub>). PM<sub>2.5 </sub>can reach lungs, pulmonary alveoli or even bloodstream being transported through the entire human body. In this sense, the emission of PM<sub>2.5 </sub>from combustion processes coming from energy production in cities can be a major health problem needing for mitigation policies regarding anthropogenic regulatory pollutants. In this sense, a bet for renewables energies can help the definition of mitigation strategies and can contribute to a better future urban air quality.</p><p>Henceforth, this study assesses the impacts of present (1991-2010) and future (RCP8.5,2031-2050) urban air pollution by fine particles on several Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) mortality causes (Lung Cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Ischaemic Heart Disease, Stroke, Lower Respiratory Infection and All diseases). Climate change scenarios were run by using the WRF-Chem online-coupled meteorological/chemistry model in framework of the Spanish REPAIR and ACEX projects, operated over an Euro-CORDEX compliant simulation domain. For the future scenarios, two alternatives under the RCP8.5 climate change scenarios are analysed: (1) business-as-usual energy production system and emissions, and (2) an scenario in which 80% of the European energy is obtained from renewable sources. The emission factors for energy production (g/GJ) were obtained from EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook–2016.</p><p>The differences between both scenarios (future vs. present approach) provide the changes in future mortality caused by air pollution. We estimated the mortalities by using non-linear exposure-response functions. Furthermore, a novel contribution of this work is that changes in future population for the 2050 horizon have been taken into account. Different risk ratio and baseline mortalities for each pathology have been estimated in every age range (25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, +80 and all ages). Data was obtained from Institute for Health Medicine.</p><p>The results obtained indicate that almost 900,000 deaths per year in Europe are caused by PM<sub>2.5 </sub>for the present scenario. Generally, the mortality will increase for both future scenarios. The total mortality on the future RCP8.5 scenario accounts for 1,500,000 deaths for the business-as-usual energy production scenario and 1,480,000 for the future scenario considering 80% of renewable energy production. Eastern Europe is the area most benefited with the change of energy production on the future because the number of deaths will be lower. Stroke is the cause which count with high of deaths in Europe.</p><p> </p><p>Acknowledgments: Project ACEX (CGL-2017-87921-R) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Fundación Biodiversidad of the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition, and FEDER European program, for support to conduct this research.</p>

The future of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis

2020 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Alaa Taleb Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Future

The present research aims at arriving the motives of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis, in the first section, As well as the positions of regional and international countries in favor of this intervention and opposition to it, in the second section, And the out looking of the future of this intervention and keeping an open crisis in Syria by posing future scenarios and the likelihood of one of them, and the jungle in the third section.

scholarly journals Site Experience Enhancement and Perspective in Cultural Heritage Fruition—A Survey on New Technologies and Methodologies Based on a “Four-Pillars” Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Agnese Augello ◽  
Ignazio Infantino ◽  
Giovanni Pilato ◽  
Gianpaolo Vitale
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Multimodal Interaction ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cultural Interest ◽  
And Behavior

This paper deals with innovative fruition modalities of cultural heritage sites. Based on two ongoing experiments, four pillars are considered, that is, User Localization, Multimodal Interaction, User Understanding and Gamification. A survey of the existing literature regarding one or more issues related to the four pillars is proposed. It aims to put in evidence the exploitation of these contributions to cultural heritage. It is discussed how a cultural site can be enriched, extended and transformed into an intelligent multimodal environment in this perspective. This new augmented environment can focus on the visitor, analyze his activity and behavior, and make his experience more satisfying, fulfilling and unique. After an in-depth overview of the existing technologies and methodologies for the fruition of cultural interest sites, the two experiments are described in detail and the authors’ vision of the future is proposed.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-447
Author(s):  
Christian Dominguez ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

scholarly journals The Awareness of and Input into Cultural Heritage Preservation by Urban Planners and Other Municipal Actors in Light of Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 726
Author(s):  
Paul Carroll ◽  
Eeva Aarrevaara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Heritage Preservation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cultural Heritage Preservation

Future climate conditions need to be considered in planning for urban areas. As well as considering how new structures would best endure in the future, it is important to take into account factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings in the urban setting. Climate change can cause an increase in structural degradation. In this paper, a review of both what these factors are and how they are addressed by urban planners is presented. A series of inquiries into the topic was carried out on town planning personnel and those involved in cultural heritage preservation in several towns and cities in Finland and in a small number of other European countries. The target group members were asked about observed climate change impacts on cultural heritage, about present steps being taken to protect urban cultural heritage, and also their views were obtained on how climate change impacts will be emphasised in the future in this regard. The results of the inquiry demonstrate that climate change is still considered only in a limited way in urban planning, and more interaction between different bodies, both planning and heritage authorities, as well as current research on climate change impacts, is needed in the field.

scholarly journals Sociotechnical imaginaries of a secure future

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Gerhold ◽  
Edda Brandes
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Security Technologies ◽  
Sociotechnical Imaginaries ◽  
The Future

AbstractThe article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different shared socioeconomic pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Guo ◽  
Laura Wilcox ◽  
Massimo Bollasina ◽  
Steven Turnock ◽  
Marianne Lund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

<p>The occurrence of severe haze events remains a serious problem in Beijing. Previous studies suggested that the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze may increase with global warming. The new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) cover a wide range of uncertainties in aerosol and greenhouse gases emissions. Global and Chinese aerosol emissions are projected to decrease in most SSPs, while increases in greenhouse gases and global warming will continue for the rest of the century. The future, therefore, remains unclear.</p><p>We quantified the air pollution over Beijing and associated weather patterns using multiple indices calculated from the SSPs</p><p>We show that the occurrence of weather patterns conducive to the formation of haze significantly increases by the end of the century due to increases in greenhouse gases. Aerosol reductions also cause an increase in their occurrence, but reduce the severity of haze, and overall reducing aerosol emissions will be beneficial.</p>

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