The election timing advantage: Empirical fact or fiction?

2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 774-781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Roy ◽  
Christopher Alcantara
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Fact ◽  
Election Timing

Mengkaji Ulang Isi Undang-Undang Nomor 10 Tahun 2016 tentang Pemilukada

ADALAH ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Achmad Danial
Keyword(s):  
Normative Values ◽  
Empirical Fact

AbstractThe appearance of 'Empty Box' in the dictionary of democracy initially connotes well, because it is considered to provide room for other options if a contest is decided by only one candidate. However, in the empirical fact, there are policies in the technical realm that are far from the essence of democracy, the mistake is in one of the articles in Law Number 10 of 2016. Supposedly, from concept to theory must remain consistent with the normative values that have been contained in democracy itself.Keywords: Democracy, Empty Box, Law No.10 of 2016 AbstrakKemunculan ‘Kotak Kosong” dalam kamus demokrasi awalnya dikonotasikan secara baik, karena dianggap memberikan ruang bagi opsi lain jika suatu kontestasi diputuskan hanya satu calon. Akan tetapi, dalam fakta empiriknya terdapat kebijakan di ranah teknis yang ternyata jauh dari nilai esensi demokrasi, kekeliruan itu ada pada salah satu pasal dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 10 Tahun 2016. Seharusnya, mulai dari konsep sampai teori harus tetap konsisten pada nilai normatif yang telah terkandung dalam demokrasi itu sendiri.Kata Kunci: Demokrasi, Kotak Kosong, UU No.10 Tahun 2016

From Regularities to Tendencies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rani Lill Anjum ◽  
Stephen Mumford
Keyword(s):  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Empirical Fact

It ought to be conceded, as an empirical fact, that there are seldom, if ever, perfect regularities in nature. Generalizations, instead, have to be made ceteris paribus. If there is no perfect regularity, however, this still does not mean that there is no causation. Causal claims can instead rest on recognizable tendencies. Tendencies can come in various degrees of strength, some very strong and some very weak. Ceteris paribus laws could be understood in terms of tendencies, which involve less than necessity but more than pure contingency. A tendency cannot be identified with a statistical incidence, however. Instead, we can think of any such incidences as being produced by the underlying tendencies.

Outlawing Opposition, Imposing Rule of Law: Authoritarian Constitutionalism in Cambodia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Benjamin LAWRENCE
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Normative Power ◽  
Legal Reforms ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Empirical Fact

Abstract Cambodia's Constitution, promulgated in September 1993, was to be the foundation of a transition to liberal, multiparty democracy. Yet, despite the document's seeming commitment to those very principles, constitutional provisions are frequently used to undermine liberal rule of law and to impose restrictions on political processes, freedoms, and rights. Focusing on the events of 2016–2017, including the jailing of opposition politicians, controversial legal reforms, and the dissolution of the country's foremost opposition party, this article demonstrates how authoritarian practices in Cambodia are framed in terms of adherence – even fidelity – to the Constitution. Further, it explores how ideas of ‘stability’ and ‘law and order’ often elide with those of rule of law in discourses and practices that simultaneously exalt and hollow out the normative power of the Constitution. This article posits that a socio-legal approach that pays particular attention to discourse can shed new light on the empirical fact of authoritarian constitutionalism, but also the processes of meaning-making that accompany, facilitate, and legitimize its practice. Far from merely a sham, then, Cambodia's Constitution – like many others – is imbricated in a complex web of contestation and legitimation that extends far beyond the walls of any courtroom.

The Element of Surprise: Election Timing and Opposition Preparedness

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402199717
Author(s):  
Charles T. McClean
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Alternative Mechanism ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Fixed Effects Models ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Timing

How can incumbent governments benefit when they control the timing of elections? The conventional wisdom is that incumbents gain an advantage by timing elections to coincide with favorable economic conditions. An alternative mechanism that has received less attention is the element of surprise: the incumbent’s ability to exploit the opposition’s lack of election preparedness. I theorize and empirically test this surprise mechanism using candidate-level data from Japanese House of Representatives elections (1955–2017). The results show that in surprise elections, opposition parties recruit fewer, lower-quality candidates, spend less money campaigning, coordinate their candidates less effectively, and ultimately receive fewer votes and seats. Evidence from fixed effects models and exogenously timed by-elections further suggest that surprise matters more in shorter, competitive election campaigns and helps incumbents more with confronting inter-party as opposed to intra-party electoral competition. These findings add to our understanding of how strategic election timing can undermine electoral accountability.

What Determines the Length of a Typical Canadian Parliamentary Government?

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 881-910 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Stephen Ferris ◽  
Marcel-Cristian Voia
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Function ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Proportional Hazard Model ◽  
Parliamentary Government ◽  
Optimal Stopping Rule ◽  
Politique Économique ◽  
Election Timing ◽  
Nous Examinons ◽  
Nous Utilisons

Abstract. In this paper we examine the length of political tenure in Canadian federally elected parliamentary governments since 1867. Using annual data on tenure length, we categorize the distribution of governing tenures in terms of a hazard function: the probability that an election will arise in each year, given that an election has not yet been called. Structuring the election call as an optimal stopping rule, we test whether that distribution responds predictably to characteristics of the political and/or economic environment. The results of using the continuous Cox and Gompertz models together with the discrete semi-parametric proportional hazard model suggest that governing parties in Canada do engage in election timing and that the only economic policy measure that is used consistently in conjunction with election timing is fiscal expenditure.Résumé. Dans cet ouvrage, nous examinons la durée d'un régime parlementaire canadien depuis la Confédération de 1867. Nous utilisons des données annuelles et nous représentons la distribution de durée de vie d'un gouvernement par une fonction de hazard, c'est-a-dire, la probabilité qu'une élection soit déclenchée durant une année spécifique étant donné qu'elle ne l'a pas encore été jusqu'à présent. Nous modélisons un déclenchement d'élection par une règle d'arrêt optimal el nous testons si la distribution dépend des caractéristiques de l'environnement politique et économique tel que prédit selon la théorie. Nous résultats basés les modèles de hazard proportionnel continu de type Cox et Gompertz et discret semi-paramétrique révèlent que les partis fédéraux au pouvoir au Canada choisissent le moment opportun pour déclencher une élection. De plus, les dépenses fiscales sont la seule variable de politique économique qui y soit systématiquement relié.

Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage

2018 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin de Benedictis-Kessner
Keyword(s):  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Election Timing

scholarly journals Thinking Without Authority: Performance Philosophy as the Democracy of Thought

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Performance Theory ◽  
Field Of Study ◽  
Philosophical Thought ◽  
The Real ◽  
Empirical Fact ◽  
Fundamental Proposition

Performance philosophy commences with an impertinent gesture when it describes itself as inaugurating a ‘new field’ of study.  Accompanying that claim is a radical proposition that ‘performance thinks’; that it should be counted as a form of philosophising in its own right.  But in what sense can performance be construed as ‘genuinely’ philosophical thought?  Taking my cue from Laura Cull’s alignment of performance philosophy with Laruelle’s practice of ‘non philosophy’ – and specifically, with its introduction of ‘democracy’ into the dispositives of ‘standard’ philosophy in order to challenge its transcendental authority over the Real – I argue that performance philosophy might be seen to enact a similar disruption of the ‘dispositives’ of performance theory.  This, however, is only partly what is at stake in the fundamental proposition of performance philosophy, and I conclude by suggesting that a more radical proposal lies behind its assertion of a new ‘field’ – one that does not reduce it to an empirical fact, but grasps it as a radical ‘utopian’ hypothesis designed to ‘open up’ the philosophical dimension of performance itself; utopian because what performance offers – seen in this way - is not simply another system of representation but a possible democratic thought of the Real itself.

scholarly journals Animales y «narratividad». Dos muestras para un bestiario en la lírica de dos generaciones españolas contemporáneas

2018 ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Joaquín Moreno Pedrosa
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Empirical Fact ◽  
Lyrical Subject

<p>Tal como señala Robert Langbaum en The poetry of experience, desde finales del siglo xviii la poesía europea va incorporando rasgos característicos de la narrativa y el drama, con el fin de distanciar la perspectiva del sujeto lírico y tratar de convertir su experiencia en un hecho empírico. Por lo que respecta al panorama poético español, los animales son uno de los referentes que con mayor frecuencia sirven como correlato objetivo, para representar tanto sentimientos o revelaciones subjetivas como lugares, épocas y otros elementos externos a la propia conciencia lírica. Su presencia va acompañada siempre de rasgos narrativos en el poema, como demuestra una selección de ejemplos en dos generaciones poéticas.</p><p><br />As it is highlighted by Robert Langbaum in The poetry of experience, since the end of the Eighteenth Century, European poetry started including characteristics of fiction and drama in order to separate the perspective of the lyrical subject and transform its experience into an empirical fact. Regarding the Spanish poetic outlook, animals are one of the most frequently used referents as objective correlative, so as to represent feelings and subjective revelations as places, times and other elements out of the lyrical subject. Its presence is always accompanied by narrative features in the poem, as it is seen in a variety of examples from two poetic generations.</p>

scholarly journals El consenso sobre el origen humano del cambio del clima no ha sido demostrado aún

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 349
Author(s):  
J.C. González-Hidalgo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
Empirical Fact ◽  
Surface Observations ◽  
Social Paradigm ◽  
Biased Information

During the last three decades two new paradigms have emerged. The first one in the called “Climate Change”, and the second, that could be named scientific-social paradigm, and referred to the previous, is the consensus that climate change has been produced by human emissions.In this paper, after a brief presentation of the first paradigm following the main conclusions of IPCC, the author reviews the main documents from which the second one has been stated. It is not the aim of this paper to argue or discuss the climate change and its attribution, but how the consensus has been achieved, because the consensus on the attribution of climate change is apparent, since it cannot be concluded from the aforementioned text.The review of the most well-known and quoted papers in scientific, political, cultural, and mass media, shows that 97% magnitude of consensus is not related to the original data, it has been calculated from partial slanted and biased information, and is referred to the opinion of a small number of people. With caution, the most real agreement from the data published until present should be approximately 50%.Temperature has risen from the beginning of surface observations, but there is not necessary any consensus to support this empirical fact. Meanwhile, to attribute that greenhouse gases emission is the most relevant factor based on majority or authority principles is not scientifically correct, because no one polling has been proof of true.

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