Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain

2015 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 358-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Agnello ◽  
Gilles Dufrénot ◽  
Ricardo M. Sousa
2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 862-876
Author(s):  
Andrew Crawley ◽  
Max Munday ◽  
Annette Roberts

Over the last decade the UK has seen greater fiscal devolution with both Wales and Scotland gaining additional powers. However, to date, such devolution has not been sufficiently accompanied by an increase in the production of more local economic data to assist policymaking choices. The paper considers this issue by first exploring, in general, the availability of local economic data with a focus on Input–Output tables and trade statistics. The case of Wales is then used to explore the problems associated with the lack of local economic data. The paper suggests that not providing the means to assess how fiscal policy might impact economic performance could present a particularly serious challenge for devolved governments. The conclusions discuss how a devolved data deficit might be overcome in a cost-effective manner.


1998 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckehard F. Rosenbaum ◽  
Marko J. van Leeuwen ◽  
Walter J. J. Manshanden

2010 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. R34-R48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Budd

The incoming Labour Government of 1997 promised a new approach to the conduct of fiscal policy. Two lessons to be learnt from previous experience were: (1) adjust for the cycle and build in a margin for uncertainty; (2) set stable fiscal rules and explain clearly fiscal policy. Although the claims for novelty were exaggerated there was a serious attempt to expand the supporting explanatory material at the time of the Budget and the Pre-Budget Report (which was itself an innovation). It started well, with the most significant tightening of fiscal policy occurring in 1997–8; but it ended with a record postwar deficit, a debt/GDP ratio heading for more than 75 per cent of GDP and the suspension of the fiscal rules. While the Treasury was not alone in failing to forecast the financial crisis and its consequences, doubts about the policy were being raised before 2007. Although the fiscal rules were met over the preceding period and projected to be met in future, a succession of current budget deficits and a tendency, from 2001 onwards, for over-optimism in fiscal projections left the UK less well equipped than it might have been to meet the challenges of the crisis.


2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F4-F10
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell

Governments are important players in many parts of the economy, and at present perhaps the most visible is the balance they set between taxing and spending. Tax and spending polices are in part designed to redistribute resources between individuals, but they can also be used to redistribute resources over time. Governments can also use tax and spending policies to sustain or restrain economic activity, and in most countries a case can be made for using active fiscal policy in periods of clear economic distress, or in periods when it would be useful to restrain imbalances that can lead to financial crises. As a result it is difficult to gauge the appropriate stance of policy. Short-run problems have to be balanced against longer-term needs, and mistakes are common. In the UK, for instance, in the six years up until 2008 the balance of policy was perhaps too loose, whilst over the next five years it is probably too tight, even though deficits are projected to be higher than they were before 2009.


2008 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Ramos ◽  
Oriol Roca-Sagales

2003 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 53-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Amanda Choy ◽  
Rebecca Riley

Consumption behaviour in the UK is frequently seen as different from that in other countries. The relationship between the housing market and consumption is discussed at length in HM Treasury (2003). The housing market, which has been particularly cyclically volatile in the past 30 years, has contributed to cycles in consumption through its impact on housing wealth. Increased house prices increase the value of assets held, and impact on consumption, making the economy more cyclical. There is a clear relationship between the level of real financial plus housing net wealth as a proportion of income and the savings ratio (excluding adjustment for changes in net equity of households in pension funds), as can be seen from chart 1, where we plot the stock of total net assets over the flow of income to indicate just how much ‘cover’ the personal sector has on its current commitments. When wealth rises, for instance because real asset prices have risen, then individuals find themselves with more assets than they need and increase their consumption in order to return their assets to their equilibrium ratio to income. Clearly this process is not instantaneous, but cycles in wealth driven by house prices could have contributed to the cyclical nature of overall demand in the UK in the past 30 years.


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