Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

2007 ◽  
Vol 209 (2-4) ◽  
pp. 157-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Rickebusch ◽  
Mario Gellrich ◽  
Heike Lischke ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Mountain Forests ◽  
Tree Population ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

scholarly journals Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
María V. Jiménez-Franco ◽  
Eva Graciá ◽  
Roberto C. Rodríguez-Caro ◽  
José D. Anadón ◽  
Thorsten Wiegand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Animal Movement ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Extinction Debt ◽  
Agricultural Abandonment ◽  
Historical Land Use

Abstract Context Land-use change is one of the main threats to biodiversity on the global scale. Legacy effects of historical land-use changes may affect population dynamics of long-lived species, but they are difficult to evaluate through observational studies alone. We present here an interdisciplinary modelling approach as an alternative to address this problem in landscape ecology. Objectives Assess effects of agricultural abandonment and anthropisation on the population dynamics of long-lived species. Specifically, we evaluated: (a) how changes in movement patterns caused by land-use change might impact population dynamics; (b) time-lag responses of demographic variables in relation to land-use changes. Methods We applied an individual-based and spatial-explicit simulation model of the spur-tighed tortoise (Testudo graeca), an endangered species, to sequences of real-world landscape changes representing agricultural abandonment and anthropisation at the local scale. We analysed different demographic variables and compared an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) with a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). Results While agricultural abandonment did not lead to relevant changes in demographic variables, anthropisation negatively affected the reproductive rate, population density and the extinction probability with time-lag responses of 20, 30 and 130 years, respectively, and caused an extinction debt of 22%. Conclusions We provide an understanding of how changes in animal movement driven by land-use changes can translate into lagged impacts on demography and, ultimately, on population viability. Implementation of proactive mitigation management are needed to promote landscape connectivity, especially for long-lived species for which first signatures of an extinction debt may arise only after decades.

scholarly journals Recapture rates and habitat associations of White-faced Darter Leucorhinnia dubia on Fenn’s and Whixall Moss, Shropshire, UK

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Davies ◽  
Achaz von Hardenberg ◽  
Matthew Geary
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Habitat Preferences ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Habitat Associations ◽  
Global And Local ◽  
Repeat Visits ◽  
Biodiversity Decline

AbstractLand-use change and habitat loss are important drivers of biodiversity decline at both global and local scales. To protect species from the impacts of land-use change it is important to understand the population dynamics and habitat associations across these scales. Here we present an investigation into the survival and habitat preferences of White-faced Darter (Leucorrhinia dubia) at the local scale at Fenn’s and Whixall Moss, Shropshire, UK. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to investigate survival and used sightings of individual dragonflies along with habitat data to investigate habitat preference. We found that survival between capture-visits was very low and that White-faced Darter show a clear preference for the open moss habitat on this site. In both cases, we found that the detectability either through sightings or recaptures was potentially very low and suggest that this should be taken into account in future analyses. We suggest that this could be achieved by encouraging recorders to submit complete lists and to repeat visits to sites.

scholarly journals Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (14) ◽  
pp. 3725-3734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janet Franklin ◽  
Josep M. Serra-Diaz ◽  
Alexandra D. Syphard ◽  
Helen M. Regan
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Plant Community ◽  
Plant Communities ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Terrestrial Plant ◽  
Plant Community Dynamics

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

Assessment of land-use change in coastal areas through geographical information systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Lango-Reynoso ◽  
Karla Teresa González-Figueroa ◽  
Fabiola Lango-Reynoso ◽  
María del Refugio Castañeda-Chávez ◽  
Jesús Montoya-Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Coastal Ecosystems ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Computer Based

Objective: This article describes and analyzes the main concepts of coastal ecosystems, these as a result of research concerning land-use change assessments in coastal areas. Design/Methodology/Approach: Scientific articles were searched using keywords in English and Spanish. Articles regarding land-use change assessment in coastal areas were selected, discarding those that although being on coastal zones and geographic and soil identification did not use Geographic Information System (GIS). Results: A GIS is a computer-based tool for evaluating the land-use change in coastal areas by quantifying variations. It is analyzed through GIS and its contributions; highlighting its importance and constant monitoring. Limitations of the study/Implications: This research analyzes national and international scientific information, published from 2007 to 2019, regarding the land-use change in coastal areas quantified with the digital GIS tool. Findings/Conclusions: GIS are useful tools in the identification and quantitative evaluation of changes in land-use in coastal ecosystems; which require constant evaluation due to their high dynamism.

Monitoring land use change in the Lake Taupo catchment between 1975, 1990 and 2002 using satellite remote sensing data

2007 ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
H. Lilienthal ◽  
A. Brauer ◽  
K. Betteridge ◽  
E. Schnug
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Satellite Remote Sensing ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Native Vegetation ◽  
Lake Water Quality ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Slow Decline

Conversion of native vegetation into farmed grassland in the Lake Taupo catchment commenced in the late 1950s. The lake's iconic value is being threatened by the slow decline in lake water quality that has become apparent since the 1970s. Keywords: satellite remote sensing, nitrate leaching, land use change, livestock farming, land management

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