Assessing the performance of theoretical and empirical tree mortality models using tree-ring series of Norway spruce

2004 ◽  
Vol 174 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Bigler ◽  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Mortality Models

How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?

2019 ◽  
Vol 433 ◽  
pp. 606-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Vanoni ◽  
Maxime Cailleret ◽  
Lisa Hülsmann ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Christof Bigler
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Mortality Models

Growth-dependent tree mortality models based on tree rings

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Bigler ◽  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Growth Trends ◽  
Mortality Model ◽  
Recent Growth ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
The Impact

Mortality is a crucial element of population dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly at the individual level. The objectives of this study were to (i) determine growth patterns (growth levels and growth trends) over different time windows that can be used to discriminate between dead and living Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees, (ii) optimize the selection of growth variables in logistic mortality models, and (iii) assess the impact of competition on recent growth in linear regression models. The logistic mortality model that we developed for mature stands classified an average of nearly 80% of the 119 trees from one site correctly as being dead or alive. While more than 50% of the variability of recent growth of living trees can be attributed to the influence of competition, this percentage was only 25% for standing dead trees. The predictive power of the logistic mortality model was validated successfully at two additional sites, where 29 of 41 (71%) and 34 of 42 (81%) trees were classified correctly, respectively. This supports the generality of the mortality model for Norway spruce in subalpine forests of the Alps. We conclude that growth trends in addition to the commonly used growth level significantly improve the prediction of growth-dependent tree mortality of Norway spruce.

scholarly journals A large database supports the use of simple models of post-fire tree mortality for thick-barked conifers, with less support for other species

Fire Ecology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Alina Cansler ◽  
Sharon M. Hood ◽  
Phillip J. van Mantgem ◽  
J. Morgan Varner
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Small Diameter ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Tree Level ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Bark Thickness ◽  
Mortality Models ◽  
Species Specific ◽  
Stem Mortality

Abstract Background Predictive models of post-fire tree and stem mortality are vital for management planning and understanding fire effects. Post-fire tree and stem mortality have been traditionally modeled as a simple empirical function of tree defenses (e.g., bark thickness) and fire injury (e.g., crown scorch). We used the Fire and Tree Mortality database (FTM)—which includes observations of tree mortality in obligate seeders and stem mortality in basal resprouting species from across the USA—to evaluate the accuracy of post-fire mortality models used in the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) software system. The basic model in FOFEM, the Ryan and Amman (R-A) model, uses bark thickness and percentage of crown volume scorched to predict post-fire mortality and can be applied to any species for which bark thickness can be calculated (184 species-level coefficients are included in the program). FOFEM (v6.7) also includes 38 species-specific tree mortality models (26 for gymnosperms, 12 for angiosperms), with unique predictors and coefficients. We assessed accuracy of the R-A model for 44 tree species and accuracy of 24 species-specific models for 13 species, using data from 93 438 tree-level observations and 351 fires that occurred from 1981 to 2016. Results For each model, we calculated performance statistics and provided an assessment of the representativeness of the evaluation data. We identified probability thresholds for which the model performed best, and the best thresholds with either ≥80% sensitivity or specificity. Of the 68 models evaluated, 43 had Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) values ≥0.80, indicating excellent performance, and 14 had AUCs <0.7, indicating poor performance. The R-A model often over-predicted mortality for angiosperms; 5 of 11 angiosperms had AUCs <0.7. For conifers, R-A over-predicted mortality for thin-barked species and for small diameter trees. The species-specific models had significantly higher AUCs than the R-A models for 10 of the 22 models, and five additional species-specific models had more balanced errors than R-A models, even though their AUCs were not significantly different or were significantly lower. Conclusions Approximately 75% of models tested had acceptable, excellent, or outstanding predictive ability. The models that performed poorly were primarily models predicting stem mortality of angiosperms or tree mortality of thin-barked conifers. This suggests that different approaches—such as different model forms, better estimates of bark thickness, and additional predictors—may be warranted for these taxa. Future data collection and research should target the geographical and taxonomic data gaps and poorly performing models identified in this study. Our evaluation of post-fire tree mortality models is the most comprehensive effort to date and allows users to have a clear understanding of the expected accuracy in predicting tree death from fire for 44 species.

Elevation-specific tree-ring chronologies of Norway spruce and Silver fir in Southern Germany

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Dittmar ◽  
Thomas Eißing ◽  
Andreas Rothe
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Southern Germany

Climatic factors controlling reproduction and growth of Norway spruce in southern Norway

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidar Selås ◽  
Gianluca Piovesan ◽  
Jonathan M Adams ◽  
Mauro Bernabei
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Seed Production ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Tree Ring Width ◽  
Late Spring Frost ◽  
Southern Norway ◽  
June July

Time series of seed production and tree-ring width of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in southern Norway were analysed for their relationship to various climatic factors occurring during "key" stages, which a priori might be expected to show a strong climate response. The following factors combined in a multiple linear regression model were found to predict seed production (based on withheld data points) with considerable accuracy, at high levels of statistical significance: June–July mean temperature and August lowest temperature in the previous year, late spring frost and June–July precipitation of the last 2 years, and January–February lowest temperature in the current year. Tree ring width was negatively correlated with the seed production index of the current year and the lowest July temperature in the previous year and positively correlated with June-July precipitation in the current year. It is suggested that habitat constraints for seedling establishment should also be considered in a more general life-history cost theory to explain masting behaviour in forest trees.

Climatic determinants of introduced Sitka spruce in Hiiumaa Island, Estonia

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-167
Author(s):  
Alar Läänelaid ◽  
Samuli Helama
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Sitka Spruce ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Moisture Regime ◽  
Growth Responses ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Winter Temperatures

Tree-ring records of Sitka spruce growing in Hiiumaa (Estonia) were investigated to illustrate their growth variability and its climatic determinants. A chronology comprising ring-width series of eight big individuals from the Suuremõisa forest park was correlated with local climatic records. The growth variability of this species introduced to Hiiumaa was statistically explained profoundly by winter temperature and early-spring precipitation. Comparisons were also made with local tree-ring data of Norway spruce. Interestingly, both the native and non-native species responded positively to precipitation in June and negatively to precipitation in April. Previous studies have shown that the winter temperature response, demonstrated here for Sitka spruce, is found as Norway spruce growth responses in eastern Estonia, whereas in western Estonia the growth of the latter species is more clearly connected, similar to our findings, to early-summer precipitation. These findings indicate that while the both spruce species remain sensitive to spring/summer moisture regime, the growth of Sitka spruce may actually be less tolerate to winter temperatures, as evident here in western Estonia where the winters may likely be milder than in eastern Estonia. Common to Sitka spruce results from Hiiumaa, tree-ring data representing conspecific native populations from north-west North American sites indicated positive responses to mid-winter temperatures. Based on these results, low winter temperatures and early-summer droughts may both threaten the survival of the remnant individuals of this species in Hiiumaa.

scholarly journals The Effect of Climate on Tree-Ring Chronologies of Native and Nonnative Tree Species Growing Under Homogenous Site Conditions

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (-1) ◽  
pp. 49-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Feliksik ◽  
Sławomir Wilczyński
Keyword(s):  
Norway Spruce ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Sitka Spruce ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Site Conditions ◽  
Diameter Increment

The Effect of Climate on Tree-Ring Chronologies of Native and Nonnative Tree Species Growing Under Homogenous Site ConditionsDendroclimatic studies were carried out in the experimental stands composed of many tree species situated in the Polish part of the Baltic sea-coast. Increment cores were taken from a 100-years old trees of 2 native species: Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestrisL.) and 3 nonnative species: Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii(Mirb.) Franco), Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis(Bong.) Carr.) and Silver fir (Abies albaMill.). Thirty trees of each species were cored. The relationships between the diameter increment and the thermal and pluvial conditions during the period from 1925 to 2005 were analyzed on the basis of standardized tree-ring chronologies and climatic data. It was found that precipitation and temperature of the growing season and months preceding that season affected the annual diameter increment of all investigated tree species. The current year winter and early spring temperatures as well as February and August precipitation had a similar effect on the variation of diameter increment of trees. On the other hand thermal and pluvial conditions of the current year June differentiated the increment rhythm of individual species. A very strong negative effect on diameter growth of trees was observed in the case of winter and early spring frosts. Norway spruce turned out to be a species most resistant to low temperatures. The investigated tree species, especially Norway spruce, was susceptible to water deficiency in the soil during spring and summer. In the case of Scots pine a high precipitation in June stimulated its growth. The diameter increments of Douglas fir, Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and Silver fir were more strongly connected with air temperature than with precipitation. So called all-species chronology of tree-ring width, constructed during this study, permitted to verify the factors having a similar effect on growth response of the investigated tree species. It reflected the mutual characteristics of diameter increments of trees of various species.

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