Mathematical model for Zika virus dynamics with sexual transmission route

ABSTRACTIn 2015 and 2016 South America went through the largest Zika epidemic in recorded history. One important aspect of this epidemic was the impact on newborns due to the effect of Zika on development of the central nervous system leading to severe malformations. Another aspect of the Zika epidemic which became evident from the data was the importance of the sexual route of transmission leading to increased risk for women. Here propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Zika virus including sexual transmission via all forms of sexual contact, as well as simplified vector transmission, assuming a constant availability of mosquitoes. From this model we derive an expression for ℛ0 which can be used to study and analyze the relative contributions of the different routes of Zika transmission and the male to female sexual transmission route vis-a-vis vectorial transmission. We also fit the model to data from the 2016 Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, to estimate the values of key parameters of the model.

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Zika virus dynamics: When does sexual transmission matter?

Epidemics ◽

10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.003 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 ◽

pp. 48-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Ondrej Maxian ◽

Anna Neufeld ◽

Emma J. Talis ◽

Lauren M. Childs ◽

Julie C. Blackwood

Keyword(s):

Zika Virus ◽

Sexual Transmission ◽

Virus Dynamics

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The effect of sexual transmission on Zika virus dynamics

Journal of Mathematical Biology ◽

10.1007/s00285-018-1230-1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 77 (6-7) ◽

pp. 1917-1941 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

C. M. Saad-Roy ◽

Junling Ma ◽

P. van den Driessche

Keyword(s):

Zika Virus ◽

Sexual Transmission ◽

Virus Dynamics

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Mathematical model of zika virus dynamics with vector control and sensitivity analysis

Infectious Disease Modelling ◽

10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 23-41 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sudhanshu Kumar Biswas ◽

Uttam Ghosh ◽

Susmita Sarkar

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Vector Control ◽

Zika Virus ◽

Virus Dynamics

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Zika virus dynamics in body fluids and risk of sexual transmission in a non-endemic area

Tropical Medicine & International Health ◽

10.1111/tmi.13019 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 92-100 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Adrián Sánchez-Montalvá ◽

Diana Pou ◽

Elena Sulleiro ◽

Fernando Salvador ◽

Cristina Bocanegra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Zika Virus ◽

Endemic Area ◽

Sexual Transmission ◽

Body Fluids ◽

Virus Dynamics

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Sex-Specific Asymmetrical Attack Rates in Combined Sexual-Vectorial Transmission Epidemics

Microorganisms ◽

10.3390/microorganisms7040112 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 112

Author(s):

Ana Carolina W. G. de Barros ◽

Kaline G. Santos ◽

Eduardo Massad ◽

Flávio Codeço Coelho

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Bayesian Inference ◽

South America ◽

Sexual Transmission ◽

Sexual Contact ◽

Sexual Partners ◽

Transmission Route ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Using Data ◽

Male To Female

In 2015–2016, South America went through the largest Zika epidemic in recorded history. One important aspect of this epidemic was the importance of sexual transmission in combination with the usual vectorial transmission, with asymmetrical transmissibilities between sexual partners depending on the type of sexual contact; this asymmetry manifested itself in data as an increased risk to women. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Zika virus including sexual transmission via all forms of sexual contact, as well as vector transmission, assuming a constant availability of mosquitoes. From this model, we derive an expression for R 0 , which is used to study and analyze the relative contributions of the male to female sexual transmission route vis-à-vis vectorial transmission. We also perform Bayesian inference of the model’s parameters using data from the 2016 Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro.

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