Probability Analysis of Bistable Composite Laminates using the Subset Simulation Method

2021 ◽  
pp. 114120
Author(s):  
Saeid Saberi ◽  
Azam Abdollahi ◽  
Michael I. Friswell
Keyword(s):  
Composite Laminates ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Subset Simulation

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 25-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aihua Liu ◽  
Ke Chen ◽  
Xiaofei Huang ◽  
Jieyun Chen ◽  
Jianfeng Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Subset Simulation ◽  
Corrosion Failure

scholarly journals Random dynamic analysis of vertical train–bridge systems under small probability by surrogate model and subset simulation with splitting

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-315
Author(s):  
Huoyue Xiang ◽  
Ping Tang ◽  
Yuan Zhang ◽  
Yongle Li
Keyword(s):  
Main Idea ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Ensemble Method ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Direct Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Maintenance Period ◽  
Small Probability ◽  
Subset Simulation ◽  
Track Irregularity ◽  
The Ensemble Method

Abstract The response of the train–bridge system has an obvious random behavior. A high traffic density and a long maintenance period of a track will result in a substantial increase in the number of trains running on a bridge, and there is small likelihood that the maximum responses of the train and bridge happen in the total maintenance period of the track. Firstly, the coupling model of train–bridge systems is reviewed. Then, an ensemble method is presented, which can estimate the small probabilities of a dynamic system with stochastic excitations. The main idea of the ensemble method is to use the NARX (nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input) model to replace the physical model and apply subset simulation with splitting to obtain the extreme distribution. Finally, the efficiency of the suggested method is compared with the direct Monte Carlo simulation method, and the probability exceedance of train responses under the vertical track irregularity is discussed. The results show that when the small probability of train responses under vertical track irregularity is estimated, the ensemble method can reduce both the calculation time of a single sample and the required number of samples.

Probability Analysis of Critical Load of Sphere-Cylinder Combined Shell Structures

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weijun Xu ◽  
Yan Feng ◽  
Xiaotian Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cylindrical Shell ◽  
Critical Load ◽  
Shell Structure ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Shell Structures ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Stiffened Cylindrical Shell ◽  
Spherical Structures

The critical load of submersible structures is normally analyzed in deterministic method. However, some factors including structural sizes, material properties and the location of the components, etc., have random characteristics due to smelting and construction process. In other words, the critical load of submersible structures has uncertainty, so these parameters should be considered as random variables. In terms of sphere-cylinder combined shell structures, the critical loads on the cylindrical shell and spherical structures should be considered together to avoid the influence of boundary conditions on the analysis results. This paper focuses on the probability analysis of sphere-cylinder combined shell structures under critical load. According to the GJB calculation method of submarine design, the security calibration ranges of ring-stiffened cylindrical shell and spherical shell are determined, and seven kinds of failure modes of sphere-cylinder combined shell structure are supposed. The corresponding probability models of sphere-cylinder combined shell structure have been established, and the reliability calculations of each failure mode are conducted in FOSM method, JC method and Monte Carlo simulation method. Considering the correlation between different failure modes, reliability series model of sphere-cylinder combined shell structure is applied in the probability analysis. It is verified by comparison of ring-stiffened cylindrical shell and sphere-cylinder combined shell, with the increase of the structure components, the reliability of structure system shows a decline tendency.

Estimating Exceedance Probabilities of Railway Bridge Vibrations in the Presence of Random Rail Irregularities

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2041005
Author(s):  
Patrick Salcher ◽  
Christoph Adam
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Subset Simulation ◽  
Rail Irregularities ◽  
Response Thresholds

This contribution addresses the estimation of exceedance probabilities of the dynamic random response of railway bridges subjected to high-speed trains in the presence of random rail irregularities. The random nature of the irregular rail track is described by a spatial ergodic stochastic process, and consequently the dynamic bridge response becomes a stochastic process in time with generally unknown distributions. Using numerical simulation methods, the response thresholds for bridge deflection and acceleration are estimated to obtain small exceedance probabilities. Combining these limits with the response at perfect rail geometry provides an estimate of the dynamic response amplification due to random rail irregularities. This is in line with the semi-probabilistic safety concept of modern civil engineering, where critical response thresholds for structures are associated with small exceedance probabilities. It is shown that modeling the maximum bridge deflection as a normally distributed random variable with parameters fitted to the results of a Monte Carlo simulation with small sample size is a computationally efficient approach for estimating the amplified deflection. In contrast, the random maximum bridge acceleration is better captured by a lognormal distribution. As an efficient alternative, the subset simulation method provides accurate predictions for very small exceedance probabilities. If the amplitudes of the rail irregularities at discrete spatial coordinates along the rail axis are considered as random variables, the stability of subset simulation increases.

Reliability analysis of bleed air anti-icing system based on subset simulation method

2017 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 17-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Weiwei Deng ◽  
Hua Nan ◽  
Leilei Zhang ◽  
Zhen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Subset Simulation

Application of a Particle Filter-Based Subset Simulation Method to the Reliability Assessment of a Marine Structure

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zakoua Guédé ◽  
Alexandru Tantar ◽  
Emilia Tantar ◽  
Pierre Del Moral
Keyword(s):  
Particle Filter ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Classical Particle ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Subset Simulation ◽  
Simulation Techniques ◽  
Marine Structure ◽  
Best Parameter

The present study aims at investigating advanced subset simulation techniques, which are based on the theory of particle filter, for the assessment of the failure probability of a marine structure under extreme loading conditions. Three approaches are considered, namely the classical particle filter method, the subset simulation with a branching process and one using the minimum values of the samples as levels. They are, first, intensively applied on a simple example for which a known analytical solution is available, in order to investigate their parameter settings. Then, they are applied, with good performance, using their respective best parameter settings, to the assessment of failure probability of a FPSO subjected to extreme roll motion.

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