scholarly journals THE SEATTLE HEART FAILURE MODEL MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE AS A REFERRAL TOOL FOR PALLIATIVE CARE

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. S44
Author(s):  
N. Ng Fat Hing ◽  
D. Chan ◽  
H. Liu ◽  
Y. Lu ◽  
A. Malik ◽  
...  
2018 ◽  
pp. bmjspcare-2018-001626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Ng Fat Hing ◽  
Jane MacIver ◽  
Derrick Chan ◽  
Helen Liu ◽  
Yu Tong Linda Lu ◽  
...  

BackgroundPhysicians face uncertainty when predicting death in heart failure (HF) leading to underutilisation of palliative care. To facilitate decision-making, we assessed the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) as a referral tool by evaluating its performance in predicting 1-year event-free survival from death, heart transplant (HTx), and ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the charts of consecutive patients with advanced ambulatory HF with New York Heart Association Class III/IV HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≤40% from 2000 to 2016. We evaluated SHFM’s performance by using the Cox proportional hazards model, its discrimination using the c-statistic, its calibration by comparing the observed and predicted survival and its clinical utility by hypothetically assessing the proportion of patients adequately or inadequately referred to palliative care.ResultsWe included 612 patients in our study. During the 1-year follow-up, there were 83 deaths, 4 HTx and 1 VAD. Although SHFM showed very good discrimination (c-statistic=0.71) and adequate calibration in medium to low-risk patients, it underestimated event-free survival by 12% in high-risk patients. SHFM’s clinical utility was limited: 33% of eligible patients would have missed the opportunity for referral and only 27% of referred patients would have benefited.ConclusionUse of SHFM could result in a high proportion of referrals while capturing the majority of patients who may benefit from palliative care. Though this may be a more encompassing and safer alternative than current referral practices, it could lead to many early referrals.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. S126
Author(s):  
S. Salimian ◽  
B. Thibault ◽  
V. Finnerty ◽  
J. Grégoire ◽  
F. Harel

1991 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. A133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karil Bellah ◽  
Thomas Raya ◽  
Sheldon Litwin ◽  
Steven Goldman ◽  
Joel Karliner

Author(s):  
Peter W. Walsh ◽  
Craig S. McLachlan ◽  
Leigh Ladd ◽  
Arie Blitz ◽  
R. Mark Gillies ◽  
...  

Numerous large animal models of chronic cardiac ischemia have been developed to explore either pathological mechanisms and or device interventions in developed heart failure models. Traditionally chronic heart failure in large animal models such as sheep or pigs has been induced by either coronary ligation with or without reperfusion. Coronary ligation is often attempted in the open chest surgical model or more recently in the closed chest animal via angiography [1]. Both techniques can be challenging and also induce high mortality with the risk of myocardial stunning and resultant shock and or lethal arrhythmias. There is also difficulty in developing stable heart failure across cases where infarct sizes can be variable. One strategy to over come this variability has been via rapid ventricular pacing, however inducing heart failure does not induce sustained heart failure in many cases if the pacing is switched off, and additionally pacing does not induce some of the underlying pathology seen in the development of heart failure [1].


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