A two-stage minimum adjustment consensus model for large scale decision making based on reliability modeled by two-dimension 2-tuple linguistic information

Critical imbalances and threshold exceedances can trigger a disruption in a network of interdependent systems. An insignificant-at-first-glance shock can induce systemic risks with cascading catastrophic impacts. Systemic risks challenge traditional risk assessment and management approaches. These risks are shaped by systemic interactions, risk exposures, and decisions of various agents. The paper discusses the need for the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) approach that enables the design of a robust portfolio of precautionary strategic and operational adaptive decisions that makes the interdependent systems flexible and robust with respect to risks of all kinds. We established a connection between the robust quantile-based non-smooth estimation problem in statistics and the two-stage non-smooth STO problem of robust strategic–adaptive decision-making. The coexistence of complementary strategic and adaptive decisions induces systemic risk aversion in the form of Value-at-Risk (VaR) quantile-based risk constraints. The two-stage robust decision-making is implemented into a large-scale Global Biosphere Management (GLOBIOM) model, showing that robust management of systemic risks can be addressed by solving a system of probabilistic security equations. Selected numerical results emphasize that a robust combination of interdependent strategic and adaptive solutions presents qualitatively new policy recommendations, if compared to a traditional scenario-by-scenario decision-making analysis.

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An Influence Network-Based Consensus Model for Large-Scale Group Decision Making with Linguistic Information

International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems ◽

10.1007/s44196-021-00058-1 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Shengbao Yao ◽

Miao Gu

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Group Decision Making ◽

Large Scale ◽

Group Decision ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Consensus Model ◽

Group Consensus ◽

Preference Information ◽

Adjustment Strategy ◽

Consensus Reaching

AbstractThe vast majority of the existing social network-based group decision-making models require extra information such as trust/distrust, influence and so on. However, in practical decision-making process, it is difficult to get additional information apart from opinions of decision makers. For large-scale group decision making (LSGDM) problem in which decision makers articulate their preferences in the form of comparative linguistic expressions, this paper proposes a consensus model based on an influence network which is inferred directly from preference information. First, a modified agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm is developed to detect subgroups in LSGDM problem with flexible linguistic information. Meanwhile, a measure method of group consensus level is proposed and the optimal clustering level can be determined. Second, according to the preference information of group members, influence network is constructed by determining intra-cluster and inter-cluster influence relationships. Third, a two-stage feedback mechanism guided by influence network is established for the consensus reaching process, which adopts cluster adjustment strategy and individual adjustment strategy depending on the different levels of group consensus. The proposed mechanism can not only effectively improve the efficiency of consensus reaching of LSGDM, but also take individual preference adjustment into account. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by the case of intelligent environmental protection project location decision.

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