High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic Simulations of Flash-Flood Episodes with Grid-Nesting and Ice-Phase Parameterization

2000 ◽  
Vol 72 (2-4) ◽  
pp. 203-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Stein ◽  
E. Richard ◽  
J. P. Lafore ◽  
J. P. Pinty ◽  
N. Asencio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Grid Nesting ◽  
Ice Phase

Using convection-permitting climate models and a high-resolution distributed hydrological model to assess future changes in Alpine flash floods.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjanne Zander ◽  
Pety Viguurs ◽  
Frederiek Sperna Weiland ◽  
Albrecht Weerts
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Dynamics ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
European Climate

<p>Flash Floods are damaging natural hazards which often occur in the European Alps. Precipitation patterns and intensity may change in a future climate affecting their occurrence and magnitude. For impact studies, flash floods can be difficult to simulate due the complex orography and limited extent & duration of the heavy rainfall events which trigger them. The new generation convection-permitting regional climate models improve the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation (Ban et al., 2021).</p><p>Therefore, this study combines such simulations with high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling to assess changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence over the Alpine terrain. We use the state-of-the-art Unified Model (Berthou et al., 2018) to drive a high-resolution distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model (e.g. Imhoff et al., 2020) covering most of the Alpine mountain range on an hourly resolution. Simulations of the future climate RCP 8.5 for the end-of-century (2096-2105) and current climate (1998-2007) are compared.</p><p>First, the wflow_sbm model was validated by comparing ERA5 driven simulation with streamflow observations (across Rhone, Rhine, Po, Adige and Danube). Second, the wflow_sbm simulation driven by UM simulation of the current climate was compared to a dataset of historical flood occurrences (Paprotny et al., 2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data) to validate if the model can accurately simulate the location of the flash floods and to determine a suitable threshold for flash flooding. Finally, the future run was used to asses changes in flash flood frequency and occurrence. Results show an increase in flash flood frequency for the Upper Rhine and Adige catchments. For the Rhone the increase was less pronounced. The locations where the flash floods occur did not change much.</p><p>This research is embedded in the EU H2020 project EUCP (EUropean Climate Prediction system) (https://www.eucp-project.eu/), which aims to support climate adaptation and mitigation decisions for the coming decades by developing a regional climate prediction and projection system based on high-resolution climate models for Europe.</p><p> </p><p>N. Ban, E. Brisson, C. Caillaud, E. Coppola, E. Pichelli, S. Sobolowski, …, M.J. Zander (2021): “The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at the kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation”, manuscript accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics.</p><p>S. Berthou, E.J. Kendon, S. C. Chan, N. Ban, D. Leutwyler, C. Schär, and G. Fosser, 2018, “Pan-european climate at convection-permitting scale: a model intercomparison study.” Climate Dynamics, pages 1–25, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4114-6</p><p>Imhoff, R.O., W. van Verseveld, B. van Osnabrugge, A.H. Weerts, 2020. “Scaling point-scale pedotransfer functions parameter estimates for seamless large-domain high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling: An example for the Rhine river.” Water Resources Research, 56. Doi: 10.1029/2019WR026807</p><p>Paprotny, D., Morales Napoles, O., & Jonkman, S. N., 2018. "HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870". Earth System Science Data, 10, 565–581, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-565-2018</p>

scholarly journals High resolution simulations of a flash flood near Venice

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1671-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Davolio ◽  
D. Mastrangelo ◽  
M. M. Miglietta ◽  
O. Drofa ◽  
A. Buzzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Barrier Type ◽  
The Alps

Abstract. During the MAP D-PHASE (Mesoscale Alpine Programme, Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region) Operational Period (DOP, 1 June–30 November 2007) the most intense precipitation event observed south of the Alps occurred over the Venice Lagoon. In the early morning of 26 September 2007, a mesoscale convective system formed in an area of convergence between a south-easterly low level jet flowing along the Adriatic Sea and a north-easterly barrier-type wind south of the Alps, and was responsible for precipitation exceeding 320 mm in less than 12 h, 240 mm of which in only 3 h. The forecast rainfall fields, provided by several convection resolving models operated daily for the D-PHASE project, have been compared. An analysis of different aspects of the event, such as the relevant mechanisms leading to the flood, the main characteristics of the MCS, and an estimation of the predictability of the episode, has been performed using a number of high resolution, convection resolving models (MOLOCH, WRF and MM5). Strong sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions and to model parameterization schemes has been found. Although low predictability is expected due to the convective nature of rainfall, the forecasts made more than 24 h in advance indicate that the larger scale environment driving the dynamics of this event played an important role in favouring the achievement of a relatively good accuracy in the precipitation forecasts.

scholarly journals Objective evaluation of mesoscale simulations of the Algiers 2001 flash flood by the model-to-satellite approach

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 247-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Söhne ◽  
J.-P. Chaboureau ◽  
S. Argence ◽  
D. Lambert ◽  
E. Richard
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Grid Nesting ◽  
Mesoscale Simulations

Abstract. An objective evaluation of mesoscale simulations by the model-to-satellite approach is performed. The model-to-satellite approach consists in calculating brightness temperatures (BT) from model variables with a radiative transfer code. It allows to compare directly and quantitatively simulations and observations by calculating statistical scores. This method is detailed and used herein to objectively evaluate an ensemble of Meso-NH simulations of the Algiers 2001 flash flood. In particular, the improvement due to the grid-nesting is shown.

scholarly journals Extreme runoff response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 10739-10780
Author(s):  
V. Ruiz-Villanueva ◽  
M. Borga ◽  
D. Zoccatelli ◽  
L. Marchi ◽  
E. Gaume ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Structure Evolution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
South West

Abstract. The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in this region. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provides the opportunity to study the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" (Zoccatelli et al., 2011). It is shown that downbasin storm motion had a noticeable impact on flood peak magnitude. Small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response. The flood response can be reasonably well reproduced with the distributed hydrological model, using high resolution rainfall observations and model parameters calibrated at a river section which includes most of the area impacted by the storm.

scholarly journals Integrated high-resolution dataset of high intensity Euro-Mediterranean flash floods

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Amponsah ◽  
Pierre-Alain Ayral ◽  
Brice Boudevillain ◽  
Christophe Bouvier ◽  
Isabelle Braud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Flood Response ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Resolution Dataset

Abstract. This paper describes an integrated, high-resolution dataset of hydro-meteorological variables (rainfall and discharge) concerning a number of high-intensity flash floods that occurred in Europe and in the Mediterranean region from 1991 to 2015. This type of dataset is rare in the scientific literature because flash floods are typically poorly observed hydrological extremes. Valuable features of the dataset (hereinafter referred to as EuroMedeFF database) include i) its coverage of varied hydro-climatic regions, ranging from Continental Europe through the Mediterranean to Arid climates, ii) the high space-time resolution radar-rainfall estimates, and iii) the dense spatial sampling of the flood response, by observed hydrographs and/or flood peak estimates from post-flood surveys. Flash floods included in the database are selected based on the limited upstream catchment areas (up to 3000 km2), the limited storm durations (up to 2 days), and the unit peak flood magnitude. The EuroMedeFF database comprises 49 events that occurred in France, Israel, Italy, Romania, Germany, and Slovenia, and constitutes a sample of rainfall and flood discharge extremes in different climates. The dataset may be of help to hydrologists as well as other scientific communities because it offers benchmark data for the identification and analysis of the hydro-meteorological causative processes, evaluation of flash flood hydrological models and for hydro-meteorological forecast systems. The dataset also provides a template for the analysis of the space-time variability of flash flood-triggered rainfall fields and of the effects of their estimation on the flood response modelling. The dataset is made available to the public as a "public dataset" with the following DOI: (https://doi.org/10.6096/mistrals-hymex.1493).

scholarly journals The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1039-1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Younis ◽  
S. Anquetin ◽  
J. Thielen
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. In Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating hazards in terms of loss of human life and infrastructures. Over the last two decades, flash floods have caused damage costing a billion Euros in France alone. One of the problems of flash floods is that warning times are very short, leaving typically only a few hours for civil protection services to act. This study investigates if operationally available short-range numerical weather forecasts together with a rainfall-runoff model can be used for early indication of the occurrence of flash floods. One of the challenges in flash flood forecasting is that the watersheds are typically small, and good observational networks of both rainfall and discharge are rare. Therefore, hydrological models are difficult to calibrate and the simulated river discharges cannot always be compared with ground measurements. The lack of observations in most flash flood prone basins, therefore, necessitates the development of a method where the excess of the simulated discharge above a critical threshold can provide the forecaster with an indication of potential flood hazard in the area, with lead times of the order of weather forecasts. This study is focused on the Cévennes-Vivarais region in the Southeast of the Massif Central in France, a region known for devastating flash floods. This paper describes the main aspects of using numerical weather forecasting for flash flood forecasting, together with a threshold – exceedance. As a case study the severe flash flood event which took place on 8–9 September 2002 has been chosen. Short-range weather forecasts, from the Lokalmodell of the German national weather service, are used as input for the LISFLOOD model, a hybrid between a conceptual and physically based rainfall-runoff model. Results of the study indicate that high resolution operational weather forecasting combined with a rainfall-runoff model could be useful to determine flash floods more than 24 h in advance.

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