Statistical downscaling of monthly mean air temperature to the beginning of flowering of Galanthus nivalis L. in Northern Germany

1997 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Maak ◽  
Hans von Storch
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Northern Germany ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering ◽  
Galanthus Nivalis

scholarly journals An application of statistical downscaling to estimate surface air temperature in Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 107 (D10) ◽  
pp. ACL 14-1-ACL 14-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoko Oshima ◽  
Hisashi Kato ◽  
Shinji Kadokura
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Surface Air Temperature

scholarly journals A Note on the Flowering of Ajuga orientalis L. in Relation to Air Temperature in Mount Aenos (Cephalonia, Greece)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aristidis Matsoukis ◽  
Athanasios Kamoutsis ◽  
Aikaterini Chronopoulou-Sereli
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Landscape Design ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Phenological Stage ◽  
Aesthetic Value ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering ◽  
Start Dates

Ajuga orientalis L. is a widespread plant species in many countries, such as Greece, Italy and Turkey, with promising aesthetic value in the field and in landscape design, but nothing is known about its phenology, from a detailed, quantitatively, point of view, in relation to meteorological variables. Thus, under the aforementioned context, the purpose of our work is the elucidation of part of the phenology of this plant, especially concerning its flowering. To achieve this, the phenological stage ‘Beginning of flowering’, in terms of its start dates (julian days), was investigated in relation to average air temperature (T) of March in two areas, Roudi and Kaboulieri at north-northwest and south-southeast slopes, respectively, of Mount Aenos, Cephalonia, Greece, for three successive years (2014-2016). From the analysis of the T of March, it was confirmed that Kaboulieri area was significantly warmer (P<0.05) than Roudi area by 0.8 oC both in 2014 and 2015, with a significantly earlier appearance (P<0.05) of ‘Beginning of flowering’ of A. orientalis in Kaboulieri, ranging from 9.1 (2015) to 10.9 (2014) julian days. The findings of our study could be used for the planning of an efficient preservation program process of the aforementioned plant species in a vulnerable mountainous environment, such as the Mount Aenos environment, as well as for its further exploitation as a decorative plant.

scholarly journals BIOMORPHOBIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AROMATIC ROSE CULTIVAR ‘FESTIVALNAYA’ WHEN GROWING IN THE SOUTHERN COAST AND IN THE STEPPE CRIMEA

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (24) ◽  
pp. 98-113
Author(s):  
N.V. Marko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Essential Oil ◽  
Flowering Time ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Maximum Yield ◽  
High Mass ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Material Base ◽  
Southern Coast ◽  
The Crimea ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering

Today, the high demand for rose processing products in the world market determines the need to restore the raw material base of aromatic roses and the development of essential oil manufacture. In the era of the USSR, rose cultivar ‘Festivalnaya’, which was created in the Nikitsky Botanical Garden (NBG-NSC), was one of the most promising for industrial cultivation. Plants of this cultivar are undemanding to environmental conditions and agricultural technologies, grow well on the carbonate soils, resistant to chlorosis, rust, powdery mildew. High mass fraction of essential oil (0.12– 0.14 % of the weight in raw form) and yield (15.8–39.0 centners/ha), as well as high content of phenylethyl alcohol in the essential oil, which was close to the standard - Bulgarian rose from the Kazanlak valley, are distinctive characteristics of this cultivar. For the last 25-30 years, biomorphological studies of plants of this cultivar in the conditions of the Crimea and Russia have not been conducted. The purpose of the research was to study the degree of manifestation of varietal traits of plants of the aromatic rose cv. ‘Festivalnaya’ in different ecological and geographical conditions of the Crimea to determine its genetic stability at conditions of weather and climatic changes in the region. Studies were carried out in 2015–2019 in the collection plantations on grafted plants under conditions of the Southern Coast of the Crimea (SCC) and the Crimean steppe zone according to generally accepted methods. Comparing the obtained data with the literature sources, we concluded that under modern growing conditions, morphological changes affected an increase in the number of thorns per unit of measure (7.18 ± 2.34 pcs., which on average surpasses the literature data by 2.0 pcs.), an increase in the double-flowered trait (on average, there are 95.2 ± 9.0 petals, which is 20 petals more than according to the data mentioned in 1975–1976). The results of phenological observations showed that rose bud swelling in the SCC and steppe Crimea begins in the second half of February when the sum of positive temperatures is above 231 °С and a steady increase in air temperature is above 5.4 °С. Over the past 40 years, the beginning of flowering of the aromatic rose cultivar ‘Festivalnaya’ in the Southern Coast has shifted to an earlier date. The beginning of flowering occurs in the middle/end of May when a certain accumulated temperature is reached (above 1125 °C) and the average monthly air temperature is above +17.5 °C. The period of mass flowering, during which it is possible to collect up to 80 % of the flowers from the total crop, in the Southern Coast lasts 14.4 ± 2.9 days, namely from the end of May to mid-June. In recent years, a tendency to a decrease in the duration of the flowering period of the aromatic rose cv. ‘Festivalnaya’ is observed: the maximum flowering time has decreased and became seven days shorter; the average flowering time – three days shorter. The yield of flowers of grafted bushes of ‘Festivalnaya’ at the age of four to eight years averaged 17.0 centners/ha; the maximum yield reached 24.6 centners/ha.

scholarly journals Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1647-1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Levavasseur ◽  
M. Vrac ◽  
D. M. Roche ◽  
D. Paillard ◽  
A. Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Kappa Statistic ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Simple Relationship ◽  
Global Agreement

Abstract. We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the inter-variation between them. Studying an heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies to conduct analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists in applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on large- or regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local-scale permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of air temperature at the surface. Then, we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by air temperature conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), this method shows some limitations with non-systemic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields. So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a Multinomial Logistic GAM (ML-GAM), which directly predicts the occurrence probabilities of local-scale permafrost. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with data. In average for the nine PMIP2 models, we measure a global agreement by kappa statistic of 0.80 with CTRL permafrost data, against 0.68 for the GAM method. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the inter-variation between climate models. This also confirms that a simple relationship between permafrost and the air temperature only is not always sufficient to represent local-scale permafrost. Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. The prediction of the SDMs is not significantly better than large-scale fields with 0.46 (GAM) and 0.49 (ML-GAM) of global agreement with LGM permafrost data. At the LGM, both methods do not reduce the inter-variation between climate models. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale air temperature at the surface. LGM simulations from climate models lead to larger differences with permafrost data, than in the CTRL period. These differences reduce the contribution of downscaling and depend on several other factors deserving further studies.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling and attribution of air temperature change patterns in the Valencia region (1948–2011)

2015 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 189-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Javier Miró Pérez ◽  
María José Estrela Navarro ◽  
Jorge Olcina Cantos
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Downscaling
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