Natural history of pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum (PAIVS) and critical pulmonary stenosis (CPS) and prediction of outcome

Objectives To analyse prenatal parameters predicting biventricular (BV) outcome in pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum/critical pulmonary stenosis (PAIVS/CPS). Methods We evaluated 82 foetuses from 01/08 to 10/18 in 3 centres in intervals 1 (< 24 weeks), 2 (24–30 weeks) and 3 (> 30 weeks). Results 61/82 (74.4%) were livebirths, 5 (8.2%) lost for follow-up, 3 (4.9%) had compassionate care leaving 53 (64.6% of the whole cohort and 86.9% of livebirths) with intention to treat. 9 died, 44/53 (83.0%) survived. 24/38 (63.2%) with information on postnatal outcome had BV outcome, 14 (36.8%) non-BV outcome (2 × 1.5 circulation). One with BV outcome had prenatal valvuloplasty. Best single parameter for BV outcome was tricuspid/mitral valve (TV/MV) ratio (AUC 0.93) in intervals 2 and 3 (AUC 0.92). Ventriculo-coronary-arterial communications (VCAC) were present in 11 (78.6%) in non-BV outcome group vs. 2 (8.3%) in BV outcome group (p < 0.001). Tricuspid insufficiency (TI)-Vmax > 2.5 m/s was present in BV outcome group in75.0% (18/24) vs. 14.3% (2/14) in non-BV outcome group. Including the most predictive markers (VCAC presence, TI- Vmax < 2.5 m/s, TV/MV ratio < cutoff) to a score, non-BV outcome was correctly predicted when > 1 criterion was fulfilled in all cases. After recently published criteria for foetal intervention, only 4/9 (44.4%) and 5/14 (35.7%) in our interval 2 + 3 with predicted non-BV outcome would have been candidates for intervention. Two (1 × intrauterine intervention) in interval 2, two in interval 3 reached BV outcome and one 1.5 circulation without intervention. Conclusion TV/MV ratio as simple parameter has high predictive value. After our score, non-BV outcome was correctly predicted in all cases. Criteria for foetal intervention must further be evaluated.