Active / break cycles: diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

2001 ◽  
Vol 18 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 85-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Annamalai ◽  
J. M. Slingo
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Asian Summer

AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 423-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Waliser ◽  
K. Jin ◽  
I.-S. Kang ◽  
W. F. Stern ◽  
S. D. Schubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Asian Summer

scholarly journals Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhei Takaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Shuhei Maeda
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Asian Society ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
One Year

AbstractThe interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document