A statistical model to downscale local daily temperature extremes from synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns in the Australian region

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Schubert ◽  
A. Henderson-Sellers
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Circulation Patterns

scholarly journals Magnitude and Frequency of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in the Yellow River Basin (1960–2017), China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaogang Dong ◽  
Shiting Zhang ◽  
Junju Zhou ◽  
Jianjun Cao ◽  
Liang Jiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

Since there are many destructive effects caused by extreme climate events in the Yellow River, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the variations of climatic extremes in this key basin. We used a meteorological dataset from 66 stations within the Yellow River basin (YRB) for the period 1960–2017 to calculate magnitude and frequency of precipitation/temperature extremes. We also analyzed the relationships between the main large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) and precipitation/temperature extremes. The trends in precipitation extremes were nonsignificant, only a few stations were characterized by significantly increasing or decreasing anomalies; this indicates the precipitation intensity may have been strengthened, and the extreme rainfall duration appears to have been reduced during 1960–2017. The trends of magnitudes for “cold” extremes were larger than those for “warm” extremes, changes of trends in frost days were higher than those for summer days, and the trends in increasing warm nights were higher than those of warm days. The influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on temperature extremes outweighed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for the other extreme climate indices. The YRB might be at risk of increased extreme high temperature events, and more attention should be paid to this higher risk of extreme climatic events.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Observed Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes over North America

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 7266-7281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Loikith ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Patterns And Processes

Abstract Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. The findings show that warm extremes at most locations are associated with positive 500-hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure anomalies just downstream with negative anomalies farther upstream. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. Circulation patterns aloft are more coherent across the continent than those at the surface where local surface features influence the occurrence of and patterns associated with extreme temperature days. Temperature extremes may be more sensitive to small shifts in circulation at locations where temperature is strongly influenced by mountains or large water bodies, or at the margins of important large-scale circulation patterns making such locations more susceptible to nonlinear responses to future climate change. The identification of these patterns and processes will allow for a thorough evaluation of the ability of climate models to realistically simulate extreme temperatures and their future trends.

scholarly journals Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. e1501344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Swain ◽  
Daniel E. Horton ◽  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Northeastern Pacific ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Recent evidence suggests that changes in atmospheric circulation have altered the probability of extreme climate events in the Northern Hemisphere. We investigate northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949–2015) been associated with cool-season (October-May) precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We identify changes in occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns by measuring the similarity of the cool-season atmospheric configuration that occurred in each year of the 1949–2015 period with the configuration that occurred during each of the five driest, wettest, warmest, and coolest years. Our analysis detects statistically significant changes in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns associated with seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes. We also find a robust increase in the magnitude and subseasonal persistence of the cool-season West Coast ridge, resulting in an amplification of the background state. Changes in both seasonal mean and extreme event configurations appear to be caused by a combination of spatially nonuniform thermal expansion of the atmosphere and reinforcing trends in the pattern of sea level pressure. In particular, both thermal expansion and sea level pressure trends contribute to a notable increase in anomalous northeastern Pacific ridging patterns similar to that observed during the 2012–2015 California drought. Collectively, our empirical findings suggest that the frequency of atmospheric conditions like those during California’s most severely dry and hot years has increased in recent decades, but not necessarily at the expense of patterns associated with extremely wet years.

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