Intraseasonal contributions of Arctic sea-ice loss and Pacific decadal oscillation to a century cold event during early 2020/21 winter

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruonan Zhang ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Guokun Dai
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

scholarly journals A Cold Event in Asia during January–February 2012 and Its Possible Association with Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (19) ◽  
pp. 7971-7990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingyi Wu ◽  
Kun Yang ◽  
Jennifer A. Francis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Central Eurasia ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Northeastern Pacific ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Through both observational analyses and simulation experiments, this study investigates the intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with a persistent cold event in the Asian continent during late January–early February 2012, and the possible association with Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic atmospheric circulation during the preceding summer. The results suggest that the northeastern Pacific–Aleutian region and central Eurasia are two critical areas where the atmospheric circulation evolution contributed to the development of this cold event. A persistent increase in sea level pressure (SLP) over the Aleutian region was a predominant feature prior to the cold event, and then decreasing SLP over this region was concurrent with both occurrence of a polar blocking high aloft and rapid strengthening of the Siberian high, triggering outbreaks of Arctic air over the Asian continent. Consequently, the influence of the Aleutian region on this cold event (i.e., the downstream effect of the atmospheric circulation) played a critical role. Simulation experiments demonstrate that Arctic atmospheric circulation conditions in the summer of 2011 significantly enhanced a negative feedback of Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation over the Aleutian region and central Eurasia during the ensuing wintertime, which could have led to the favorable atmospheric circulation that facilitated the occurrence of cold events resembling the one in 2012. This study also implies that the Aleutian low and disturbances in the midlatitudes over the northeastern Pacific may provide precursors that could increase skill in predicting the intraseasonal evolution of extreme cold events over Eurasia.

scholarly journals Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Bailey ◽  
Alun Hubbard ◽  
Eric S. Klein ◽  
Kaisa-Riikka Mustonen ◽  
Pete D. Akers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Observationally constrained multi-model atmospheric response to future Arctic sea ice loss 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doug Smith ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Scientific Debate ◽  
Model Response ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Constrained Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss could weaken mid-latitude westerlies and promote more severe cold winters has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we analyse a large multi-model ensemble of coordinated experiments from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and find that the modelled response is proportional to the simulated eddy momentum feedback, and that this is underestimated in all models. Hence, we derive an observationally constrained model response showing a modest weakening of mid-latitude tropospheric and stratospheric winds, an equatorward shift of the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Although our constrained response is consistent with observed relationships which have weakened recently, we caution that emergent constraints may only provide a lower bound.</p>

scholarly journals The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
Seong-Joong Kim ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Andrew L. Stewart ◽  
Seo-Yeon Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 2653-2687 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. West ◽  
A. B. Keen ◽  
H. T. Hewitt
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ensembles Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract. The fully-coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the MOC and subpolar gyre in some integrations, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes.

scholarly journals Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 3255-3263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumiaki Ogawa ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Yongqi Gao ◽  
Torben Koenigk ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Winter Climate Change ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Greenhouse-gas contribution to Arctic sea-ice loss

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Detection Analysis ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Arctic sea-ice area (ASIA) has been declining rapidly throughout the year during recent decades, but a formal quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) contribution remains limited. This study conducts an attribution analysis of the observed ASIA changes from 1979 to 2017 by comparing three satellite observations with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations using an optimal fingerprint method. The observed ASIA exhibits overall decreasing trends across all months with stronger trends in warm seasons. CMIP6 anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL) simulations and GHG-only forcing simulations successfully capture the observed temporal trend patterns. Results from detection analysis show that ALL signals are detected robustly for all calendar months for three observations. It is found that GHG signals are detectable in the observed ASIA decrease throughout the year, explaining most of the ASIA reduction, with a much weaker contribution by other external forcings. We additionally find that the Arctic Ocean will occur ice-free in September around the 2040s regardless of the emission scenario.</p>

scholarly journals Ural Blocking Driving Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Cold Eurasia, and Stratospheric Vortex Weakening in Autumn and Early Winter 2016–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 11313-11329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Tyrlis ◽  
Elisa Manzini ◽  
Jürgen Bader ◽  
Jinro Ukita ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Sea Ice Modelers and Observers to Advance Polar Science

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (10) ◽  
pp. 2057-2059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Donald Perovich
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Summer Camp ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Accelerated Program ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Climate Change ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Arctic sea ice has undergone significant change with large reductions in thickness and areal extent over the historical record. Numerical models project sea ice loss to continue for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of September ice-free conditions later this century. Understanding the mechanisms behind ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is important if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. Meeting this challenge requires the collective and collaborative insights of scientists investigating the system from numerous perspectives. One impediment to progress has been a disconnect between the observational and modeling research communities. Advancing the science requires enhanced integration between these communities and more collaborative approaches to understanding Arctic sea ice loss. This paper discusses a successful effort to further these aims: a weeklong sea ice summer camp held in Barrow, Alaska (now known as Utqiaġvik), in May 2016. The camp brought together 25 participants who were a heterogeneous mix of observers and modelers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate students to senior researchers. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. A dialogue with Barrow community members was initiated in order to further understand the local consequences of Arctic sea ice loss. The discussion herein describes lessons learned from this activity and paths forward to advance the understanding and prediction of Arctic climate change.

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