Effect of merging of the convective cloud clusters on occurrence of heavy rainfall

1991 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Shengchun
2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4657-4671
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio ◽  
Jenni L. Evans ◽  
George S. Young

AbstractAn African easterly wave (AEW) and associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) dataset has been created and used to evaluate the propagation of MCSs, AEWs, and, especially, the propagation of MCSs relative to the AEW with which they are associated (i.e., wave-relative framework). The thermodynamic characteristics of AEW–MCS systems are also analyzed. The analysis is done for both AEW–MCS systems that develop into tropical cyclones and those that do not to quantify significant differences. It is shown that developing AEWs over West Africa are associated with a larger number of convective cloud clusters (CCCs; squall-line-type systems) than nondeveloping AEWs. The MCSs of developing AEWs propagate at the same speed of the AEW trough in addition to being in phase with the trough, whereas convection associated with nondeveloping AEWs over West Africa moves faster than the trough and is positioned south of it. These differences become important for the intensification of the AEW vortex as this slower-moving convection (i.e., moving at the same speed of the AEW trough) spends more time supplying moisture and latent heat to the AEW vortex, supporting its further intensification. An analysis of the rainfall rate (MCS intensity), MCS area, and latent heating rate contribution reveals that there are statistically significant differences between developing AEWs and nondeveloping AEWs, especially over West Africa where the fraction of extremely large MCS areas associated with developing AEWs is larger than for nondeveloping AEWs.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prosenjit Chatterjee ◽  
Utpal Kumar De ◽  
Devendra Pradhan

During premonsoon season (March to May) convective developments in various forms are common phenomena over the Gangetic West Bengal, India. In the present work, simulation of wind squall on three different dates has been attempted with the help of mesoscale model MM5. The combination of various physical schemes in MM5 is taken as that found in a previous work done to simulate severe local storms over the Gangetic West Bengal. In the present study the model successfully simulates wind squall showing pressure rise, wind shift, wind surge, temperature drop, and heavy rainfall, in all cases. Convective cloud development and rainfall simulation by the model has been validated by the corresponding product from Doppler Weather Radar located at Kolkata and TRMM satellite product 3B42 (V6), respectively. It is found that the model is capable of capturing heavy rainfall pattern with up to three-hour time gap existing between simulation and observation of peak rainfall occurrence. In all simulations there is spatial as well as temporal shift from observation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-78
Author(s):  
Adi Mulsandi ◽  
Mamenun Mamenun ◽  
Lutfi Fitriano ◽  
Rahmat Hidayat

Intisari Permasalahan utama dalam mengestimasi curah hujan menggunakan data satelit adalah kegagalan membedakan antara awan cumuliform dengan awan stratiform dimana dapat menyebabkan nilai estimasi hujan under/overestimate. Dalam penelitian ini teknik estimasi curah hujan berbasis satelit yang digunakan adalah modifikasi Convective Stratiform Technique (CSTm). CSTm memiliki kelemahan ketika harus menghitung sistem awan konveksi dengan inti konveksi yang sangat luas karena akan memiliki nilai slope parameter kecil, sehingga menghasilkan estimasi curah hujan yang underestimate. Dengan melibatkan perhitungan faktor pertumbuhan awan di algoritma CSTm permasalahan tersebut dapat diatasi. Penelitian ini menerapkan algoritma CSTm dan faktor pertumbuhan awan (CSTm+Growth Factor) untuk mengestimasi kejadian hujan lebat yang menyebabkan banjir di Jakarta pada tanggal 24 Januari 2016 yang digunakan juga sebagai studi kasus di proyek pengembangan model NWP di BMKG. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa perlibatan faktor pertumbuhan awan sangat efektif memperbaiki kelemahan teknik CSTm, diperlihatkan dengan peningkatan nilai korelasi dari 0.6 menjadi 0.8 untuk wilayah Kemayoran dan -0.1 menjadi 0.83 untuk wilayah Cengkareng. Secara umum gabungan teknik CSTm dan faktor pertumbuhan awan dapat memperbaiki estimasi nilai intensitas dan fase hujan. Abstract  The main problem in estimating rainfall using satellite data is a failure to distinguish between cumuliform and stratiform clouds, which can cause under/overestimate of rains. In this research, the Modified Convective Stratiform Technique (CSTm) has been used to estimate rainfall based on satellite data. The weakness of the CSTm technique is defined when calculating the convective cloud system within a widely convective point. Cloud convective will have a low value of parameter slope and produce an underestimate of rainfall. This issue can be resolved by calculating the cloud growth factor on CSTm. CSTm algorithm and cloud growth factor (CSTm+Growth Factor) has been applied to this research to estimate heavy rainfall for floods event in Jakarta area on January 24th, 2016. The result showed that the cloud growth factor is very effective in improving the weakness of rainfall estimation using the CSTm technique. Correlation between estimation and observation rainfall has increased from 0,6 to 0,8 on Kemayoran and from -0,1 to 0,83 on Cengkareng. The coupled method of CSTm and cloud growth factor significantly improve in estimating phase and intensity of rainfall.


Author(s):  
A. C. Sousa ◽  
L. A. Candido ◽  
P. Satyamurty

AbstractMesoscale convective cloud clusters develop and organize in the form of squall lines along the coastal Amazon in the afternoon hours and propagate inland during the evening hours. The frequency, location, organization into lines and movement of the convective systems are determined by analyzing the “precipitation features” obtained from the TRMM satellite for the period 1998-2014. The convective clusters and their alignments into Amazon coastal squall lines are more frequent from December through July and they mostly stay within 170 km from the coast line. Their development and movement in the afternoon and evening hours of about 14 m s-1 are helped by the sea breeze. Negative phase of Atlantic Dipole and La Niña combined increase the frequency of convective clusters over coastal Amazon. Composite environmental conditions of 13 large Amazon coastal squall line cases in April show that conditional instability increases from 09 LT to 12 LT and the wind profiles show a jet like structure in low levels. The differences in the vertical profiles of temperature and humidity between the large squall line composites and no-squall line composites are weak. However, appreciable increase in the mean value of CAPE from 09 LT to 15 LT is found in large squall line composite. The mean mixing ratio of mixed layer at 09 LT in La Niña situations is significantly larger in the large squall line composite. Thus, CAPE and mixed layer mixing ratio are considered promising indicators of the convective activity over the coastal belt of the Amazon Basin.


2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (10) ◽  
pp. 4083-4099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evandro M. Anselmo ◽  
Courtney Schumacher ◽  
Luiz A. T. Machado

AbstractWe describe the existence of an Amazonian low-level jet (ALLJ) that can affect the propagation and life cycle of convective systems from the northeast coast of South America into central Amazonia. Horizontal winds from reanalysis were analyzed during March–April–May (MAM) of the two years (2014–15) of the GoAmazon2014/5 field campaign. Convective system tracking was performed using GOES-13 infrared imagery and classified into days with high and weak convective activity. The MAM average winds show a nocturnal enhancement of low-level winds starting near the coast in the early evening and reaching 1600 km inland by late morning. Mean 3-hourly wind speeds maximize at 9–10 m s−1 near 900 hPa, but individual days can have nighttime low-level winds exceeding 12 m s−1. Based on objective low-level wind criteria, the ALLJ is present 10%–40% of the time over the Amazon during MAM depending on the location and time of day. The evolution of the ALLJ across the Amazon impacts the frequency of occurrence of cloud clusters and the intensity of the moisture flux. In addition, the ALLJ is associated with the enhancement of northeasterly flow in the midtroposphere during active convective days, when vertical momentum transport may be occurring in the organized cloud clusters. During the weakly active convective period, the ALLJ is weaker near the coast but stronger across the central Amazon and appears to be linked more directly with the South American low-level jet.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 3675-3722
Author(s):  
A. Adachi ◽  
T. Kobayashi ◽  
H. Yamauchi ◽  
S. Onogi

Abstract. A method for forecasting very short-term rainfall to detect potentially hazardous convective cloud that produces heavy local rainfall was developed using actual volumetric C-band polarimetric radar data. Because the rainfall estimation algorithm used in this method removed the effect of ice particles based on polarimetric measurements, it was immune to the high reflectivity associated with hail. The reliability of the algorithm was confirmed by comparing the rainfall rate estimated from the polarimetric radar measurements at the lowest elevation angle with that obtained from an optical disdrometer on the ground. The rainfall rate estimated from polarimetric data agreed well with the results obtained from the disdrometer, and was much more reliable than results derived from reflectivity alone. Two small cumulus cells were analyzed, one of which developed and later produced heavy rainfall, whereas the other did not. Observations made by polarimetric radar with a volumetric scan revealed that a high vertical maximum intensity of rainfall rate and a vertical area of enhanced differential reflectivity extending above the freezing level, often termed a high ZDR column, were clearly formed about 10 min prior to the onset of heavy rainfall on the ground. The onset time of the heavy rainfall could be estimated in advance from the polarimetric data, which agreed fairly well with observations. These polarimetric characteristics were not observed for the cumulus cell that did not produce heavy rainfall. The results suggest that both the vertical maximum intensity of the rainfall rate and a high ZDR column, estimated from polarimetric measurements, can be used to identify potentially hazardous clouds. Furthermore, this study shows that polarimetric radar measurements with high spatial and temporal resolutions are invaluable for disaster reduction.


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