SUMMARYClimate change has greatly affected agricultural production, and will lead to further changes in cropping system, varietal type and cultivation techniques for each region. The potential effects of climate change on rice production in Fujian Province, China, were explored in the current study with CERES-Rice model and climate-change scenarios, based on the self-adaptation of rice production. The results indicated that simulated yields of early rice in the double-rice region in south-eastern Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 15·9, 18·0 and 19·2%, respectively, and correspondingly those of late rice increased by 9·2, 7·4 and 7·4% when self-adaptation adjustment was considered, compared to scenarios without that consideration. In the double-rice region in north-western Fujian, simulated yields of early rice increased by 21·2, 20·5 and 18·9% and those of late rice by 14·7, 14·8 and 7·2% under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B, respectively, when self-adaptation was considered, compared to without consideration. Similar results were obtained for the single-rice region in the mountain areas of north-western Fujian, correspondingly increasing by 4·9, 5·0 and 2·9% when self-adaptation was considered compared to when it was not. In this single-rice region, double rice might be grown in the future at the Changting site under scenarios A1 and B2. When the self-adaptation adjustment was considered, the simulated overall output of rice crops in Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 5·9, 5·2 and 5·1%, respectively. Thus, more optimistic results were obtained when the self-adaptation ability of rice production was considered.
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