User-model interaction in decision support systems for risk management

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
User Model ◽  
Model Interaction

Seasonal forecasts of discharge in the Upper Danube upstream of Vienna

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Martin Santos ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Hubert Holzmann ◽  
Kristina Fröhlich ◽  
Jennifer Ostermüller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Forecasts

<p>In the last years, the demand of reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts has increased with the aim of incorporating them into decision support systems for e.g. river navigation, power plant operation  or drought risk management. Recently, the concept of “climate services” has gained stronger attention in Europe, thereby incorporating useful information derived from climate predictions and projections that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management. In the frame of one of these climate services currently in development, Clim2Power project, a seasonal forecast system for discharge in the Upper Danube upstream Vienna has been established.</p><p>Seasonal forecasts are generated using a dynamical approach running a hydrological model (COSERO) with forecasted climate input provided by DWD (Germany's National Meterological Service). The climate forecasts are based on a large ensemble of predictions, available up to 6 months. After the application of a statistical downscaling method, the climate forecasts have a spatial resolution of 6km. The predictability is related to two main contributions: meteorological forcings (i.e. temperature and precipitation predictability) and initial basin states at the time the forecast is issued.</p><p>The Upper Danube basin with a catchment area of approx. 100.000 km<sup>2</sup> is characterized by complex topography dominated by the Alps, elevations range from about 150 m to slightly under 4000 m. Therefore, the skill of the seasonal forecast is highly influenced by the resolution of the meteorological data, and likewise by the hydrological processes that take place, especially, regarding melting processes. Downscaled hindcasts over the last 20 years, generated with the identical setup as the seasonal forecasts, are used in this contribution to assess the skill of the seasonal forecasts. In addition, some post-processing corrections, based on historical observations, are used to adjust the bias of the forecasts. Nevertheless, remaining non-systematic error patterns do not allow complete bias correction. Apart from the biases, also the correlation patterns show a limited skill. We conclude that the seasonal discharge forecasting is still not sufficient to incorporate the results into water resources decision support systems within the studied Alpine basins.</p>

MIS and Illusions of Control: An Analysis of the Risks of Risk Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 259-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helga Drummond
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Discussion Paper ◽  
The Subject ◽  
High Level ◽  
New Literature

Dysfunctional MIS is an important topic but one that has received comparatively little attention in the literature. This discussion paper attaches new literature to the subject. The new literature centres upon the epistemological status of certain forms of MIS. More specifically, it is argued that MIS, based upon metonymy (part for whole substitution), can seriously mislead managers because the representation gets mistaken for the reality. The demonstration is based on high level risk registers. Risk registers were selected for analysis because they are ubiquitous and important decision support systems. In theory, diligent use of risk registers should virtually eliminate unpleasant surprises. In practice, the result may be an illusion of control. Analysis draws upon sociology and psychology to explain why this may be so.

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