The value of climate forecasting

1985 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garth W. Paltridge
Keyword(s):  
Climate Forecasting

scholarly journals Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1956) ◽  
pp. 4751-4767 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Slingo ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Support Decision Making ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

Following Lorenz's seminal work on chaos theory in the 1960s, probabilistic approaches to prediction have come to dominate the science of weather and climate forecasting. This paper gives a perspective on Lorenz's work and how it has influenced the ways in which we seek to represent uncertainty in forecasts on all lead times from hours to decades. It looks at how model uncertainty has been represented in probabilistic prediction systems and considers the challenges posed by a changing climate. Finally, the paper considers how the uncertainty in projections of climate change can be addressed to deliver more reliable and confident assessments that support decision-making on adaptation and mitigation.

scholarly journals REVIEW OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES W. HANSEN ◽  
SIMON J. MASON ◽  
LIQIANG SUN ◽  
ARAME TALL
Keyword(s):  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Sub Saharan

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.

scholarly journals Multiple Evidence for Climate Patterns Influencing Ecosystem Productivity across Spatial Gradients in the Venice Lagoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 363
Author(s):  
Camilla Bertolini ◽  
Edouard Royer ◽  
Roberto Pastres
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Spatial Gradients ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Oxygen Production Rate ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Effects of climatic changes in transitional ecosystems are often not linear, with some areas likely experiencing faster or more intense responses, which something important to consider in the perspective of climate forecasting. In this study of the Venice lagoon, time series of the past decade were used, and primary productivity was estimated from hourly oxygen data using a published model. Temporal and spatial patterns of water temperature, salinity and productivity time series were identified by applying clustering analysis. Phytoplankton and nutrient data from long-term surveys were correlated to primary productivity model outputs. pmax, the maximum oxygen production rate in a given day, was found to positively correlate with plankton variables measured in surveys. Clustering analysis showed the occurrence of summer heatwaves in 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018 and three warm prolonged summers (2012, 2017, 2019) coincided with lower summer pmax values. Spatial effects in terms of temperature were found with segregation between confined and open areas, although the patterns varied from year to year. Production and respiration differences showed that the lagoon, despite seasonality, was overall heterotrophic, with internal water bodies having greater values of heterotrophy. Warm, dry years with high salinity had lower degrees of summer autotrophy.

scholarly journals Scale-Selective Precision for Weather and Climate Forecasting

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 645-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Chantry ◽  
Tobias Thornes ◽  
Tim Palmer ◽  
Peter Düben
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Spectral Space ◽  
Dynamical Equations ◽  
Length Scales ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Spectral Models ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Numerical Precision

Abstract Attempts to include the vast range of length scales and physical processes at play in Earth’s atmosphere push weather and climate forecasters to build and more efficiently utilize some of the most powerful computers in the world. One possible avenue for increased efficiency is in using less precise numerical representations of numbers. If computing resources saved can be reinvested in other ways (e.g., increased resolution or ensemble size) a reduction in precision can lead to an increase in forecast accuracy. Here we examine reduced numerical precision in the context of ECMWF’s Open Integrated Forecast System (OpenIFS) model. We posit that less numerical precision is required when solving the dynamical equations for shorter length scales while retaining accuracy of the simulation. Transformations into spectral space, as found in spectral models such as OpenIFS, enact a length scale decomposition of the prognostic fields. Utilizing this, we introduce a reduced-precision emulator into the spectral space calculations and optimize the precision necessary to achieve forecasts comparable with double and single precision. On weather forecasting time scales, larger length scales require higher numerical precision than smaller length scales. On decadal time scales, half precision is still sufficient precision for everything except the global mean quantities.

scholarly journals Empirical correction techniques: analysis and applications to chaotically driven low-order atmospheric models

2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-206
Author(s):  
I. Trpevski ◽  
L. Basnarkov ◽  
D. Smilkov ◽  
L. Kocarev
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Empirical Correction ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
Correction Terms ◽  
Low Order

Abstract. Contemporary tools for reducing model error in weather and climate forecasting models include empirical correction techniques. In this paper we explore the use of such techniques on low-order atmospheric models. We first present an iterative linear regression method for model correction that works efficiently when the reference truth is sampled at large time intervals, which is typical for real world applications. Furthermore we investigate two recently proposed empirical correction techniques on Lorenz models with constant forcing while the reference truth is given by a Lorenz system driven with chaotic forcing. Both methods indicate that the largest increase in predictability comes from correction terms that are close to the average value of the chaotic forcing.

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

2010 ◽  
pp. 391-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myles Allen ◽  
David Frame ◽  
Jamie Kettleborough ◽  
David Stainforth
Keyword(s):  
Model Error ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Weather And Climate

Improved trend-aware post-processing of GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Processing Method ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
New Formulation

Abstract Climate trends have been observed over the recent decades in many parts of the world, but current global climate models (GCMs) for seasonal climate forecasting often fail to capture these trends. As a result, model forecasts may be biased above or below the trendline. In our previous research, we developed a trend-aware forecast post-processing method to overcome this problem. The method was demonstrated to be effective for embedding observed trends into seasonal temperature forecasts. In this study, we further develop the method for post-processing GCM seasonal precipitation forecasts. We introduce new formulation and evaluation features to cater for special characteristics of precipitation amounts, such as having a zero lower bound and highly positive skewness. We apply the improved method to calibrate ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of seasonal precipitation for Australia. Our evaluation shows that the calibrated forecasts reproduce observed trends over the hindcast period of 36 years. In some regions where observed trends are statistically significant, forecast skill is greatly improved by embedding trends into the forecasts. In most regions, the calibrated forecasts outperform the raw forecasts in terms of bias, skill, and reliability. Wider applications of the new trend-aware post-processing method are expected to boost user confidence in seasonal precipitation forecasts.

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