On the choice of relaxation coefficients for Davies' lateral boundary scheme for regional weather prediction models

1993 ◽  
Vol 52 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Lehmann
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Relaxation Coefficients

scholarly journals Alternative Formulations for Incorporating Lateral Boundary Data into Limited-Area Models

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (7) ◽  
pp. 2867-2882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Tudor ◽  
Piet Termonia
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Lateral Boundary Condition ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Coupling Interval ◽  
Temporal Interpolation

Abstract Limited-area models (LAMs) use higher resolutions and more advanced parameterizations of physical processes than global numerical weather prediction models, but suffer from one additional source of error—the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The large-scale model passes the information on its fields to the LAM only over the narrow coupling zone at discrete times separated by a coupling interval of several hours. The LBC temporal resolution can be lower than the time necessary for a particular meteorological feature to cross the boundary. A LAM user who depends on LBC data acquired from an independent prior analysis or parent model run can find that usual schemes for temporal interpolation of large-scale data provide LBC data of inadequate quality. The problem of a quickly moving depression that is not recognized by the operationally used gridpoint coupling scheme is examined using a simple one-dimensional model. A spectral method for nesting a LAM in a larger-scale model is implemented and tested. Results for a traditional flow-relaxation scheme combined with temporal interpolation in spectral space are also presented.

Forecasting of Tornadoes and Downbursts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djordje Romanic
Keyword(s):  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Wind ◽  
Extreme Wind Speeds ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Tornadoes and downbursts cause extreme wind speeds that often present a threat to human safety, structures, and the environment. While the accuracy of weather forecasts has increased manifold over the past several decades, the current numerical weather prediction models are still not capable of explicitly resolving tornadoes and small-scale downbursts in their operational applications. This chapter describes some of the physical (e.g., tornadogenesis and downburst formation), mathematical (e.g., chaos theory), and computational (e.g., grid resolution) challenges that meteorologists currently face in tornado and downburst forecasting.

scholarly journals HGPT2: An ERA5-Based Global Model to Estimate Relative Humidity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2179
Author(s):  
Pedro Mateus ◽  
Virgílio B. Mendes ◽  
Sandra M. Plecha
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapor ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽  
International Gnss Service ◽  
Weighted Mean Temperature

The neutral atmospheric delay is one of the major error sources in Space Geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and its modeling for high accuracy applications can be challenging. Improving the modeling of the atmospheric delays (hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) also leads to a more accurate and precise precipitable water vapor estimation (PWV), mostly in real-time applications, where models play an important role, since numerical weather prediction models cannot be used for real-time processing or forecasting. This study developed an improved version of the Hourly Global Pressure and Temperature (HGPT) model, the HGPT2. It is based on 20 years of ERA5 reanalysis data at full spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal resolution (1-h). Apart from surface air temperature, surface pressure, zenith hydrostatic delay, and weighted mean temperature, the updated model also provides information regarding the relative humidity, zenith non-hydrostatic delay, and precipitable water vapor. The HGPT2 is based on the time-segmentation concept and uses the annual, semi-annual, and quarterly periodicities to calculate the relative humidity anywhere on the Earth’s surface. Data from 282 moisture sensors located close to GNSS stations during 1 year (2020) were used to assess the model coefficients. The HGPT2 meteorological parameters were used to process 35 GNSS sites belonging to the International GNSS Service (IGS) using the GAMIT/GLOBK software package. Results show a decreased root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias values relative to the most used zenith delay models, with a significant impact on the height component. The HGPT2 was developed to be applied in the most diverse areas that can significantly benefit from an ERA5 full-resolution model.

scholarly journals Fengyun Meteorological Satellite Products for Earth System Science Applications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Xian ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Ling Gao ◽  
Ruijing Sun ◽  
Haizhen Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Sharing ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Inversion Algorithm

AbstractFollowing the progress of satellite data assimilation in the 1990s, the combination of meteorological satellites and numerical models has changed the way scientists understand the earth. With the evolution of numerical weather prediction models and earth system models, meteorological satellites will play a more important role in earth sciences in the future. As part of the space-based infrastructure, the Fengyun (FY) meteorological satellites have contributed to earth science sustainability studies through an open data policy and stable data quality since the first launch of the FY-1A satellite in 1988. The capability of earth system monitoring was greatly enhanced after the second-generation polar orbiting FY-3 satellites and geostationary orbiting FY-4 satellites were developed. Meanwhile, the quality of the products generated from the FY-3 and FY-4 satellites is comparable to the well-known MODIS products. FY satellite data has been utilized broadly in weather forecasting, climate and climate change investigations, environmental disaster monitoring, etc. This article reviews the instruments mounted on the FY satellites. Sensor-dependent level 1 products (radiance data) and inversion algorithm-dependent level 2 products (geophysical parameters) are introduced. As an example, some typical geophysical parameters, such as wildfires, lightning, vegetation indices, aerosol products, soil moisture, and precipitation estimation have been demonstrated and validated by in-situ observations and other well-known satellite products. To help users access the FY products, a set of data sharing systems has been developed and operated. The newly developed data sharing system based on cloud technology has been illustrated to improve the efficiency of data delivery.

scholarly journals Parametrizations of Liquid and Ice Clouds’ Optical Properties in Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Harel. B. Muskatel ◽  
Ulrich Blahak ◽  
Pavel Khain ◽  
Yoav Levi ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Radiation Transfer ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Effective Size ◽  
Asymmetry Factor ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models ◽  
Spectral Averaging

Parametrization of radiation transfer through clouds is an important factor in the ability of Numerical Weather Prediction models to correctly describe the weather evolution. Here we present a practical parameterization of both liquid droplets and ice optical properties in the longwave and shortwave radiation. An advanced spectral averaging method is used to calculate the extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, forward scattered fraction and asymmetry factor (bext, v, f, g), taking into account the nonlinear effects of light attenuation in the spectral averaging. An ensemble of particle size distributions was used for the ice optical properties calculations, which enables the effective size range to be extended up to 570 μm and thus be applicable for larger hydrometeor categories such as snow, graupel, and rain. The new parameterization was applied both in the COSMO limited-area model and in ICON global model and was evaluated by using the COSMO model to simulate stratiform ice and water clouds. Numerical weather prediction models usually determine the asymmetry factor as a function of effective size. For the first time in an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the asymmetry factor is parametrized as a function of aspect ratio. The method is generalized and is available on-line to be readily applied to any optical properties dataset and spectral intervals of a wide range of radiation transfer models and applications.

Impact of Consistent Semi-Lagrangian Trajectory Calculations on Numerical Weather Prediction Performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (10) ◽  
pp. 4127-4150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zahid Husain ◽  
Claude Girard
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Multiscale Model ◽  
Dynamical Equations ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Trajectory Calculation ◽  
Trajectory Calculations

Inconsistencies may arise in numerical weather prediction models—that are based on semi-Lagrangian advection—when the governing dynamical and the kinematic trajectory equations are discretized in a dissimilar manner. This study presents consistent trajectory calculation approaches, both in the presence and absence of off-centering in the discretized dynamical equations. Both uniform and differential off-centering in the discretized dynamical equations have been considered. The proposed consistent trajectory calculations are evaluated using numerical experiments involving a nonhydrostatic two-dimensional theoretical mountain case and hydrostatic global forecasts. The experiments are carried out using the Global Environmental Multiscale model. Both the choice of the averaging method for approximating the velocity integral in the discretized trajectory equations and the interpolation scheme for calculating the departure positions are found to be important for consistent trajectory calculations. Results from the numerical experiments confirm that the proposed consistent trajectory calculation approaches not only improve numerical consistency, but also improve forecast accuracy.

Spurious Grid-Scale Precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (6) ◽  
pp. 2168-2184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory L. West ◽  
W. James Steenburgh ◽  
William Y. Y. Cheng
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract Spurious grid-scale precipitation (SGSP) occurs in many mesoscale numerical weather prediction models when the simulated atmosphere becomes convectively unstable and the convective parameterization fails to relieve the instability. Case studies presented in this paper illustrate that SGSP events are also found in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and are accompanied by excessive maxima in grid-scale precipitation, vertical velocity, moisture variables (e.g., relative humidity and precipitable water), mid- and upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and mid- and upper-level absolute vorticity. SGSP events in environments favorable for high-based convection can also feature low-level cold pools and sea level pressure maxima. Prior to 2003, retrospectively generated NARR analyses feature an average of approximately 370 SGSP events annually. Beginning in 2003, however, NARR analyses are generated in near–real time by the Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS), which is identical to the retrospective NARR analysis system except for the input precipitation and ice cover datasets. Analyses produced by the R-CDAS feature a substantially larger number of SGSP events with more than 4000 occurring in the original 2003 analyses. An oceanic precipitation data processing error, which resulted in a reprocessing of NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005, only partially explains this increase since the reprocessed analyses still produce approximately 2000 SGSP events annually. These results suggest that many NARR SGSP events are not produced by shortcomings in the underlying Eta Model, but by the specification of anomalous latent heating when there is a strong mismatch between modeled and assimilated precipitation. NARR users should ensure that they are using the reprocessed NARR analyses from 2003 to 2005 and consider the possible influence of SGSP on their findings, particularly after the transition to the R-CDAS.

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