Dynamic decision making: Optimal policies and actual behavior in sequential choice problems

1994 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Wesley Hutchinson ◽  
Robert J. Meyer
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8771
Author(s):  
Yu Song ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Qian Liu

The automatic flap barrier gate system (AFBGS) plays a critical role in building security, but it is more vulnerable to natural hazards than common exits (including power failure, due to earthquakes, and delayed evacuation, due to safety certification, etc.). This article considers a dynamic decision-making process of evacuees during post-earthquake evacuation near an AFBGS. An interesting metaphor, broken windows (BW), is utilized to interpret people’s actual behavior during evacuation. A multi-stage decision-making mechanism of evacuees is developed to characterize the instantaneous transition among three defined stages: Habitual, mild, and radical states. Then, we build a modified three-layer social force model to reproduce the interaction between evacuees based on an actual post-earthquake evacuation. The simulations reveal that BW provides a contextualized understanding of emergency evacuation with a similar effect to the traditional metaphor. An earlier appearance of a mild rule breaker leads to a higher crowd evacuation efficiency. If evacuees maintain the state of broken windows behavior (BWB), the crowd evacuation efficiency can be improved significantly. Contrary to the criminological interpretation, the overall effect of mild BWB is positive, but the radical BWB is encouraged under the command of guiders.


2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dominik Guss ◽  
Jarrett Evans ◽  
Devon Murray ◽  
Harald Schaub

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Weinhardt ◽  
Jeff Vancouver ◽  
Claudia Gonzalez Vallejo ◽  
Jason Harman

1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Wearing ◽  
Chris Pivec ◽  
Mary M. Omodei

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