Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California

1990 ◽  
Vol 133 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Prozorov ◽  
S. Yu. Schreider
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
A. Filippone ◽  
B. Parkes ◽  
N. Bojdo ◽  
T. Kelly

ABSTRACT Real-time flight data from the Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) has been integrated, through a data interface, with a flight performance computer program to predict aviation emissions at altitude. The ADS-B, along with data from Mode-S, are then used to ‘fly’ selected long-range aircraft models (Airbus A380-841, A330-343 and A350-900) and one turboprop (ATR72). Over 2,500 flight trajectories have been processed to demonstrate the integration between databases and software systems. Emissions are calculated for altitudes greater than 3,000 feet (609m) and exclude landing and take-off cycles. This proof of concept fills a gap in the aviation emissions inventories, since it uses real-time flights and produces estimates at a very granular level. It can be used to analyse emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide ( $\mathrm{CO}_2$ ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides ( $\mathrm{NO}_x$ ) and water vapour on a specific route (city pair), for a specific aircraft, for an entire fleet, or on a seasonal basis. It is shown how $\mathrm{NO}_x$ and water vapour emissions concentrate around tropospheric altitudes only for long-range flights, and that the cruise range is the biggest discriminator in the absolute value of these and other exhaust emissions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2739
Author(s):  
Huizhong Zhu ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
Longjiang Tang ◽  
Maorong Ge ◽  
Aigong Xu

Although ionosphere-free (IF) combination is usually employed in long-range precise positioning, in order to employ the knowledge of the spatiotemporal ionospheric delays variations and avoid the difficulty in choosing the IF combinations in case of triple-frequency data processing, using uncombined observations with proper ionospheric constraints is more beneficial. Yet, determining the appropriate power spectral density (PSD) of ionospheric delays is one of the most important issues in the uncombined processing, as the empirical methods cannot consider the actual ionosphere activities. The ionospheric delays derived from actual dual-frequency phase observations contain not only the real-time ionospheric delays variations, but also the observation noise which could be much larger than ionospheric delays changes over a very short time interval, so that the statistics of the ionospheric delays cannot be retrieved properly. Fortunately, the ionospheric delays variations and the observation noise behave in different ways, i.e., can be represented by random-walk and white noise process, respectively, so that they can be separated statistically. In this paper, we proposed an approach to determine the PSD of ionospheric delays for each satellite in real-time by denoising the ionospheric delay observations. Based on the relationship between the PSD, observation noise and the ionospheric observations, several aspects impacting the PSD calculation are investigated numerically and the optimal values are suggested. The proposed approach with the suggested optimal parameters is applied to the processing of three long-range baselines of 103 km, 175 km and 200 km with triple-frequency BDS data in both static and kinematic mode. The improvement in the first ambiguity fixing time (FAFT), the positioning accuracy and the estimated ionospheric delays are analysed and compared with that using empirical PSD. The results show that the FAFT can be shortened by at least 8% compared with using a unique empirical PSD for all satellites although it is even fine-tuned according to the actual observations and improved by 34% compared with that using PSD derived from ionospheric delay observations without denoising. Finally, the positioning performance of BDS three-frequency observations shows that the averaged FAFT is 226 s and 270 s, and the positioning accuracies after ambiguity fixing are 1 cm, 1 cm and 3 cm in the East, North and Up directions for static and 3 cm, 3 cm and 6 cm for kinematic mode, respectively.


2018 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 470-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Li ◽  
Rui Xiong ◽  
Hao Mu ◽  
Bertrand Cornélusse ◽  
Philippe Vanderbemden ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Manjunath Ramachandra ◽  
Vikas Jain

The present day Internet traffic largely caters for the multimedia traffic throwing open new and unthinkable applications such as tele-surgery. The complexity of data transactions increases with a demand for in time and real time data transfers, demanding the limited resources of the network beyond their capabilities. It requires a prioritization of data transfers, controlled dumping of data over the network etc. To make the matter worse, the data from different origin combine together imparting long lasting detrimental features such as self similarity and long range dependency in to the traffic. The multimedia data fortunately is associated with redundancies that may be removed through efficient compression techniques. There exists a provision to control the compression or bitrates based on the availability of resources in the network. The traffic controller or shaper has to optimize the quality of the transferred multimedia data depending up on the state of the network. In this chapter, a novel traffic shaper is introduced considering the adverse properties of the network and counteract with the same.


2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (4) ◽  
pp. 1781-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosihiko Ogata ◽  
Takahiro Omi

ABSTRACT This study considers the possible implementation of the operational short-term forecasting, and analysis of earthquake occurrences using a real-time hypocenter catalog of ongoing seismic activity, by reviewing case studies of the aftershocks of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake that occurred before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. First, the short-term prediction of spatiotemporal activity is required in real time along with the background seismic activity over a wide region to obtain practical probabilities of large earthquakes; snapshots from the continuous forecasts during the Searles Valley and Ridgecrest earthquake sequence are included to monitor the growth and migration of seismic activity over time. We found that the area in and around the rupture zone in southern California had a very high background rate. Second, we need to evaluate whether a first strong earthquake may be the foreshock for a further large earthquake; the rupture region in southern California had one of the highest such probabilities. Third, short-term probability forecast of early aftershocks are much desired despite the difficulties with data acquisition. The aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley event was found to significantly increase the probability of a larger earthquake, as seen in the foreshock sequence of the 2016 MJMA 7.4 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake. Finally, detrending the temporal activity of all the aftershocks by stretching and shrinking the ordinary time scale according to the rate given by the Omori–Utsu formula or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, we observe the spatiotemporal occurrences in which seismicity patterns may be abnormal, such as relative quiescence, relative activation, or migrating activity. Such anomalies should be recorded and listed for the future evaluation of the probability of a possible precursor for a large aftershock or a new rupture nearby. An example of such anomalies in the aftershocks before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake is considered.


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