On the uniqueness of endemic equilibria of an HIV/AIDS transmission model for a heterogeneous population

1991 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 779-790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Lin
Author(s):  
Sunil Kumar ◽  
Ram P. Chauhan ◽  
Mohamed S. Osman ◽  
S. A. Mohiuddine
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonché Danesh ◽  
Victor Virlogeux ◽  
Christophe Ramière ◽  
Caroline Charre ◽  
Laurent Cotte ◽  
...  

AbstractOpioid substitution and syringes exchange programs have drastically reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) spread in France but HCV sexual transmission in men having sex with men (MSM) has recently arisen as a significant public health concern. The fact that the virus is transmitting in a heterogeneous population, with ‘new’ and ‘classical’ hosts, makes prevalence and incidence rates poorly informative. However, additional insights can be gained by analyzing virus phylogenies inferred from dated genetic sequence data. By combining a phylodynamics approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and an original transmission model, we estimate key epidemiological parameters of an ongoing HCV epidemic among MSMs in Lyon (France). We show that this new epidemic is largely independent of the ‘classical’ HCV epidemics and that its doubling time is ten times lower (0.44 years versus 4.37 years). These results have practical implications for HCV control and illustrate the additional information provided by virus genomics in public health.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Senelani D. Hove-Musekwa ◽  
Farai Nyabadza ◽  
Hermane Mambili-Mamboundou ◽  
Christinah Chiyaka ◽  
Zindoga Mukandavire

The model of care of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) has shifted from hospital care to community home-based care (CHBC) because of shortage of space in hospitals and lack of resources. We evaluate the costs and benefits of home-based care and other HIV/AIDS intervention strategies in Zimbabwe, using an interdisciplinary approach which weaves together the techniques of an epidemic transmission model and economic evaluation concepts. The intervention strategies considered are voluntary counselling and testing (VCT), VCT combined with hospitalization (H), VCT combined with CHBC, and all the interventions implemented concurrently. The results of the study indicate that implementing all the strategies concurrently is the most cost-effective, a result which also agrees with the epidemiological model. Our results also show that the effectiveness of a strategy in the epidemiological model does not necessarily imply cost-effectiveness of the strategy and behaviour change, modelled by the parameters p and m, that accompanied the strategies, influencing both the cost-effectiveness of an intervention strategy and dynamics of the epidemic. This study shows that interdisciplinary collaborations can help in improving the accuracy of predictions of the course and cost of the epidemic and help policy makers in implementing the correct strategies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. e1009916
Author(s):  
Gonché Danesh ◽  
Victor Virlogeux ◽  
Christophe Ramière ◽  
Caroline Charre ◽  
Laurent Cotte ◽  
...  

Opioid substitution and syringes exchange programs have drastically reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) spread in France but HCV sexual transmission in men having sex with men (MSM) has recently arisen as a significant public health concern. The fact that the virus is transmitting in a heterogeneous population, with different transmission routes, makes prevalence and incidence rates poorly informative. However, additional insights can be gained by analyzing virus phylogenies inferred from dated genetic sequence data. By combining a phylodynamics approach based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and an original transmission model, we estimate key epidemiological parameters of an ongoing HCV epidemic among MSMs in Lyon (France). We show that this new epidemic is largely independent of the previously observed non-MSM HCV epidemics and that its doubling time is ten times lower (0.44 years versus 4.37 years). These results have practical implications for HCV control and illustrate the additional information provided by virus genomics in public health.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-146
Author(s):  
Gratien Twagirumukiza ◽  
◽  
Edouard Singirankabo ◽  

None can underestimate the importance of mathematical modelling for their role in clarifying dynamics of epidemic diseases. They can project the progress of the disease and demonstrate the result of the epidemic to public health in order to take precautions. HIV attracts global attention due to rising death rates and economic burdens and many other consequences that it leaves behind. Up to date, there is no medicine and vaccine of HIV/AIDS but still many researches are conducted in order to see how to mitigate this epidemic and reduce the death rate or increase the life expectancy of those who are infected. A delayed HIV/AIDS treatment and vertical transmission model has been investigated. The model took into account both infected people from the symptomatics group and asymptomatic group to join AIDS group. We considered that a child can be infected from the mother to an embryo, fetus or childbirth. Those who are infected, it will take them some time to get mature and spread the disease. By using mathematical model, reproduction number, positivity, boundedness, and stability analysis were determined. The results showed that the model is much productive if time delay is considered.


1991 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 1030-1052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stavros Busenberg ◽  
Kenneth Cooke ◽  
Horst Thieme

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