On predicting the response of forests in eastern North America to future climatic change

1991 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Julie Cole
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Future Climatic Change

scholarly journals Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M Poulos ◽  
Barry Chernoff
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Cyprinella Lutrensis ◽  
Future Climatic Change ◽  
Red Shiner

We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted into environments different from training region) indicating good model performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.

scholarly journals Potential range expansion of the invasive Red Shiner, Cyprinella lutrensis (Teleostei: Cyprinidae), under future climatic change

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M Poulos ◽  
Barry Chernoff
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Cyprinella Lutrensis ◽  
Future Climatic Change ◽  
Red Shiner

We built climate envelope models under contemporary and future climates to explore potential range shifts of the invasive Red Shiner-Cyprinella lutrensis. Our objective was to estimate aquatic habitat vulnerability to Red Shiner invasion in North America under future climatic change. We used presence records from within the species’ native and invaded distributions, a suite of bioclimatic predictor variables from three climate models (CCCma, CSIRO, and HadCM3), and maximum entropy modeling to generate potential distribution maps for the year 2080. Our model predicted major range expansion by Red Shiner under both low and high carbon emissions scenarios. The models exceeded average area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values of 0.92, indicating good overall model performance. The model predictions fell largely outside of areas of climatic extrapolation (i.e. regions predicted into environments different from training region) indicating good model performance. The results from this study highlight the large potential range expansion across North America of Red Shiner under future warmer climates.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document