Voodoo forecasting: Technical, political and ethical issues regarding the projection of local population growth

1984 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth W. Moen
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Local Population

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

scholarly journals Natural Geography and Patterns of Local Population Growth and Decline in Spain: 1960–2011

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelheid Holl
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Growth Variation

This paper analyzes the role of natural geography for explaining local population change patterns. Using spatially detailed data for Spain from 1960 to 2011, the estimation results indicated that natural geography variables relate to about half of the population growth variation of rural areas and more than a third of the population growth variation of urban areas during this period. Local differences in climate, topography, and soil and rock formation as well as distance to aquifers and the coast contribute to variations in local population growth patterns. Although, over time, local population change became less related to differences in natural geography, natural geography is still significantly related to nearly a third of the variation in local population change in rural areas and the contribution of temperature range and precipitation seasonality has even increased. For urban areas, weather continues to matter too, with growth being higher in warmer places.

Determinants of local population growth and economic development in France between 1990 and 2006

2018 ◽  
Vol Janvir (1) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Jens Abildtrup ◽  
Mohamed Hilal ◽  
Virginie Piguet ◽  
Bertrand Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Local Population

scholarly journals Population Control

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-24
Author(s):  
Alicia M.R. Donner
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Growing Population

The planet’s swiftly growing population coupled with the lack of food security and the degradation of natural resources has caused many demographers to worry about the ramifications of unchecked population growth while many philosophers worry about the ethical issues surrounding the methods of population control. Therefore, I intend to argue a system of encouraging a decrease in personal fertility rate via financial incentives offers a solution that is both viable and not morally reprehensible.

scholarly journals Rural–Urban Gradients and Human Population Dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Montalvo ◽  
Enrique Ruiz-Labrador ◽  
Pablo Montoya-Bernabéu ◽  
Belén Acosta-Gallo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Cultural Landscapes ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Mean ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Demographic Challenge

Rural–urban gradients offer an appropriate ecological framework for understanding relevant social issues to sustainability and policy planning. We tested the hypothesis that human population growth rate at a local scale is indirectly driven by spatial and rurality gradients, which can be applied to cultural landscapes in Mediterranean Europe. The whole of local administrative/spatial units of Spain—8125 municipalities—, previously classified into five categories along a rural–urban gradient, was used as a case study. Several geospatial patterns and associations among local average per capita population growth rate, population mean age, road accessibility, and other environmental and landscape variables linked to rurality gradients were identified by means of geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate statistics. Regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between population size changes through time and other demographic and territorial variables. Population growth rate was associated with road accessibility and rurality gradient, supporting the established hypothesis. Short-term population growth or decline was directly driven by population mean age. A visual hypothesized model of local population growth rate based on empirical evidence is presented. The results are useful for decision-makers, from local land management interventions to developing strategies and policies to address the demographic challenge.

scholarly journals Local Population Change and Variations in Racial Integration in the United States, 2000–2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Bellman ◽  
Seth E. Spielman ◽  
Rachel S. Franklin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Theil Index ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Local Areas

While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil index, we analyze the fifty most populous metropolitan statistical areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a unique unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

Dogs of War: Potential Social Institutions of Conflict, Healing, and Death in a Fort Ancient Village

2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 498-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Ohio Valley ◽  
Fort Ancient ◽  
Social Landscape ◽  
Ancient Site ◽  
Ritual Activity

AbstractInterpreting ritual activity at ancient sites, such as Sun Watch Village in the Middle Ohio Valley, can be difficult without clear and specific historical connections to later groups. This Fort Ancient site yielded evidence of ritual use of dogs and wolves that resemble those documented for several Central Algonquian and Siouan/Plains tribes. Although these ethnographic groups have not been conclusively linked as direct descendants of Middle Ohio valley populations, this information can be used as multiple specific analogies for understanding such “culturally unaffiliated” cases. At Sun Watch Village, local customs of dog and wolf ritualism became established at a time of increasing warfare and the appearance of Mississippians in the Fort Ancient region. Mississippians may have contributed to developing authority positions in individual villages that were coping with local population growth and in-migration of peoples within an increasingly hostile social landscape.

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