Uncertainty, Information, Decision Making

2009 ◽  
pp. 651-690
Author(s):  
Nikolaos S. Papageorgiou ◽  
Sophia Th. Kyritsi-Yiallourou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Uncertainty Information

An approach to decision making with interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy model for evaluating personal risk of mental patients

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Xindong Peng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Pythagorean Fuzzy Set ◽  
Mental Patients ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
Interval Valued

It is prominent important for managers to assess the personal risk of mental patients. The evaluation process refers to numerous indexes, and the evaluation values are general portrayed by uncertainty information. In order to conveniently model the complicated uncertainty information in realistic decision making, interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy set is proposed. Firstly, with the aid of Einstein t-norm and t-conorm, four fundamental operations for interval-valued complex Pythagorean fuzzy number (IVCPFN) are constructed along with some operational properties. Subsequently, according to these proposed operations, the weighted average and weighted geometric forms of aggregation operators are initiated for fusing IVCPFNs, and their anticipated properties are also examined. In addition, a multiple attribute decision making issue is examined under the framework of IVCPFNs when employing the novel suggested operators. Ultimately, an example regarding the assessment on personal risk of mental patients is provided to reveal the practicability of the designed approach, and the attractiveness of our results is further found through comparing with other extant approaches.The main novelty of the coined approach is that it not only can preserve the original assessment information adequately by utilizing the IVCPFNs, but also can aggregate IVCPFNs effectively.

scholarly journals Humans incorporate trial-to-trial working memory uncertainty into rewarded decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (15) ◽  
pp. 8391-8397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maija Honig ◽  
Wei Ji Ma ◽  
Daryl Fougnie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Working Memory ◽  
Action Planning ◽  
Informational Content ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Stimulus Color ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
With Memory

Working memory (WM) plays an important role in action planning and decision making; however, both the informational content of memory and how that information is used in decisions remain poorly understood. To investigate this, we used a color WM task in which subjects viewed colored stimuli and reported both an estimate of a stimulus color and a measure of memory uncertainty, obtained through a rewarded decision. Reported memory uncertainty is correlated with memory error, showing that people incorporate their trial-to-trial memory quality into rewarded decisions. Moreover, memory uncertainty can be combined with other sources of information; after inducing expectations (prior beliefs) about stimuli probabilities, we found that estimates became shifted toward expected colors, with the shift increasing with reported uncertainty. The data are best fit by models in which people incorporate their trial-to-trial memory uncertainty with potential rewards and prior beliefs. Our results suggest that WM represents uncertainty information, and that this can be combined with prior beliefs. This highlights the potential complexity of WM representations and shows that rewarded decision can be a powerful tool for examining WM and informing and constraining theoretical, computational, and neurobiological models of memory.

scholarly journals Effects of Probabilistic Risk Situation Awareness Tool (RSAT) on Aeronautical Weather-Hazard Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sweta Parmar ◽  
Rickey P. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Situation Awareness ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Support Condition ◽  
Radar Images ◽  
Awareness Tool ◽  
Risk Situation ◽  
Nexrad Radar ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
Hazardous Weather

We argue that providing cumulative risk as an estimate of the uncertainty in dynamically changing risky environments can help decision-makers meet mission-critical goals. Specifically, we constructed a simplified aviation-like weather decision-making task incorporating Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) images of convective weather. NEXRAD radar images provide information about geographically referenced precipitation. NEXRAD radar images are used by both pilots and laypeople to support decision-making about the level of risk posed by future weather-hazard movements. Using NEXRAD, people and professionals have to infer the uncertainty in the meteorological information to understand current hazards and extrapolate future conditions. Recent advancements in meteorology modeling afford the possibility of providing uncertainty information concerning hazardous weather for the current flight. Although there are systematic biases that plague people’s use of uncertainty information, there is evidence that presenting forecast uncertainty can improve weather-related decision-making. The current study augments NEXRAD by providing flight-path risk, referred to as the Risk Situational Awareness Tool (RSAT). RSAT provides the probability that a route will come within 20 NMI radius (FAA recommended safety distance) of hazardous weather within the next 45 min of flight. The study evaluates four NEXRAD displays integrated with RSAT, providing varying levels of support. The “no” support condition has no RSAT (the NEXRAD only condition). The “baseline” support condition employs an RSAT whose accuracy is consistent with current capability in meteorological modeling. The “moderate” support condition applies an RSAT whose accuracy is likely at the top of what is achievable in meteorology in the near future. The “high” support condition provides a level of support that is likely unachievable in an aviation weather decision-making context without considerable technological innovation. The results indicate that the operators relied on the RSAT and improved their performance as a consequence. We discuss the implications of the findings for the safe introduction of probabilistic tools in future general aviation cockpits and other dynamic decision-making contexts. Moreover, we discuss how the results contribute to research in the fields of dynamic risk and uncertainty, risk situation awareness, cumulative risk, and risk communication.

scholarly journals Linguistic Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Copula Heronian Mean Operators for Multiattribute Group Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Lei Xu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Haobin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Number ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Interval Valued ◽  
Heronian Mean

As a generalization of the intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN), the linguistic interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (LIVIFN) is a flexible and superior tool to describe complex fuzzy uncertainty information. Heronian mean (HM) operator has the characteristic of considering the relationship between attributes. Extended copulas (ECs) and extended cocopulas (ECCs) are the promotion form of Archimedean t-norm and t-conorm (ATT). ECs and ECCs can generate versatile operational rules and can provide more choice for decision makers (DMs). Therefore, it is very necessary to take advantages of them. In this paper, ECs and ECCs, some specifics of ECs and ECCs, and score and accuracy functions of IVILFNs are gained first. Then, we propose the linguistic interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted copula Heronian mean (LIVIFWCHM) operator; also, some properties and five specific expressions of the LIVIFWCHM operator are discussed. Moreover, we also propose a new MAGDM approach based on the proposed LIVIFWCHM operator. Finally, a set of examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness, generality, and flexibility of the proposed method.

Cold chains, interrupted

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tina Comes ◽  
Kristin Bergtora Sandvik ◽  
Bartel Van de Walle
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Basic Structure ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
Critical Research ◽  
Research Gaps ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
Chain Problem

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how far technology and information enable, facilitate or support the planning and implementation decisions in humanitarian vaccine cold chains for vaccination campaigns. The authors specifically focus on three emerging technologies that have the potential to create more flexible conditions in the field, and identify the need to further explore the link between uncertainty, information and irreversibility. Design/methodology/approach The authors present a basic structure for the analysis of cold chain disruptions in terms of three distinct yet connected layers of deficient infrastructure and capacity, information gaps and failures in decision making. The authors then review three humanitarian technologies and their impact on vaccine campaigns along these layers. From there, a research agenda is developed to address research gaps this review brought forward. Findings Three critical research gaps in the areas of technology innovation for humanitarian vaccine cold chain management are presented. The authors argue that technology to improve capacity, information and decisions need to be aligned, and that the areas of uncertainty, information and irreversibility require further investigation to achieve this alignment. In this way, the paper contributes to setting the research agenda on vaccine cold chains and connects humanitarian logistics to technology, information management and decision making. Originality/value This paper presents the humanitarian vaccine cold chain problem from an original angle by illuminating the implications of technology and information on the decisions made during the planning and implementation phases of a vaccine campaign. The authors develop an agenda to provide researchers and humanitarians with a perspective to improve cold chain planning and implementation at the intersection of technology, information and decisions.

Multi-criteria decision-making method based on type-2 fuzzy sets

Filomat ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Qing-Hui Chen ◽  
Hong-Yu Zhang ◽  
Xiao-Hong Chen ◽  
Jian-Qiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Interval Type ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Type-2 fuzzy sets (T2FSs) are the extension of type-1 fuzzy sets (T1FSs), which can convey more uncertainty information in solving multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Motivated by the extension from interval numbers to triangular fuzzy numbers, three-trapezoidal-fuzzy-number-bounded type-2 fuzzy numbers (TT2FNs) are defined on the basis of interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (IT2TFNs), and they can convey more uncertainty information than T1FSs and IT2FSs. Moreover, the drawbacks of the existing computational models of generalized fuzzy numbers are analyzed, and a new computational model of fuzzy numbers is proposed, which is further extended to TT2FNs. Besides, a MCDM method is proposed to deal with the evaluation information given in the form of TT2FNs. Finally, an illustrative example and comparison analysis are provided to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Decision Making Among Nonexperts

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Susan L. Joslyn
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Traditional Research ◽  
Weather Uncertainty ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
The One ◽  
Normative Models ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of weather uncertainty information on decision making in naturalistic settings. Traditional research often reveals deficits in human decision making under uncertainty as compared with normative models of rational choice. However, little research has addressed the question of whether people in naturalistic settings make better decisions when they have uncertainty information as compared with when they have only a deterministic forecast. Two studies investigated the effect of several types of weather uncertainty information on the quality of decisions to protect roads against icing and on temperature predictions and compared them with a control condition that provided deterministic forecast only. Experiment 1 was a Web-based questionnaire that included a single trial. Experiment 2, conducted in lab, included 120 trials and provided outcome feedback and a reward based on performance. Both studies indicated enhanced performance with uncertainty information. The best kind of uncertainty information tested here was the one that provided the probability at the threshold for the task at hand. We conclude that uncertainty information can be used advantageously, even when it does not result in perfectly rational performance, and that uncertainty can be communicated effectively to nonexpert end users, resulting in improved decision making.

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