Genetically Optimized Artificial Neural Network for Financial Time Series Data Mining

Author(s):  
Serge Hayward
Author(s):  
Indranil Bose

Movement of stocks in the financial market is a typical example of financial time series data. It is generally believed that past performance of a stock can indicate its future trend and so stock trend analysis is a popular activity in the financial community. In this chapter, we will explore the unique characteristics of financial time series data mining. Financial time series analysis came into being recently. Though the world’s first stock exchange was established in the 18th century, stock trend analysis began only in the late 20th century. According to Tay et al. (2003) analysis of financial time series has been formally addressed only since 1980s. It is believed that financial time series data can speak for itself. By analyzing the data, one can understand the volatility, seasonal effects, liquidity, and price response and hence predict the movement of a stock. For example, the continuous downward movement of the S&P index during a short period of time allows investors to anticipate that majority of stocks will go down in immediate future. On the other hand, a sharp increase in interest rate makes investors speculate that a decrease in overall bond price will occur. Such conclusions can only be drawn after a detailed analysis of the historic stock data. There are many charts and figures related to stock index movements, change of exchange rates, and variations of bond prices, which can be encountered everyday. An example of such a financial time series data is shown in Figure 1. It is generally believed that through data analysis, analysts can exploit the temporal dependencies both in the deterministic (regression) and the stochastic (error) components of a model and can come up with better prediction models for future stock prices (Congdon, 2003).


2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 5339-5345
Author(s):  
Han He ◽  
Yuanyuan Hong ◽  
Weiwei Liu ◽  
Sung-A Kim

At present, KDD research covers many aspects, and has achieved good results in the discovery of time series rules, association rules, classification rules and clustering rules. KDD has also been widely used in practical work such as OLAP and DW. Also, with the rapid development of network technology, KDD research based on WEB has been paid more and more attention. The main research content of this paper is to analyze and mine the time series data, obtain the inherent regularity, and use it in the application of financial time series transactions. In the financial field, there is a lot of data. Because of the huge amount of data, it is difficult for traditional processing methods to find the knowledge contained in it. New knowledge and new technology are urgently needed to solve this problem. The application of KDD technology in the financial field mainly focuses on customer relationship analysis and management, and the mining of transaction data is rare. The actual work requires a tool to analyze the transaction data and find its inherent regularity, to judge the nature and development trend of the transaction. Therefore, this paper studies the application of KDD in financial time series data mining, explores an appropriate pattern mining method, and designs an experimental system which includes mining trading patterns, analyzing the nature of transactions and predicting the development trend of transactions, to promote the application of KDD in the financial field.


2009 ◽  
Vol 73 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Glezakos ◽  
Theodore A. Tsiligiridis ◽  
Lazaros S. Iliadis ◽  
Constantine P. Yialouris ◽  
Fotis P. Maris ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajashree Dash ◽  
Pradipta Kishore Dash

In this paper a predictor model using Legendre Neural Network is proposed for one day ahead prediction of financial time series data. The Legendre Neural Network (LENN) is a single layer structure that possess faster convergence rate and reduced computational complexity by increasing the dimensionality of the input pattern with a set of linearly independent nonlinear functions. The parameters of the LENN model are estimated using a Moderate Random Search Particle Swarm Optimization Method (HMRPSO). The HMRPSO is a variant of PSO that uses a moderate random search method to enhance the global search ability of particles and increases their convergence rates by focusing on valuable search space regions. Training LENN using HMRPSO has also been compared with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Differential Evolution (DE) based learning of LENN for predicting the Bombay Stock Exchange and S&P 500 data sets.


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