scholarly journals Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

2002 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 242-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C Price ◽  
Heather C Pentecost ◽  
Rochelle D Voth
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Optimistic Bias ◽  
Event Frequency ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Risk Judgments

How base rates frame personal risk judgments

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla C. Chandler ◽  
Leilani A. Greening ◽  
Leslie Robison
Keyword(s):  
Base Rates ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Risk Judgments

scholarly journals A Norm-Based Conditional Process Model of the Negative Impact of Optimistic Bias on Self-Protection Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Three Chinese Cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sijing Chen ◽  
Jianwei Liu ◽  
Huamin Hu
Keyword(s):  
Social Norms ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Optimistic Bias ◽  
Chinese Cities ◽  
Message Acceptance ◽  
Self Protection ◽  
The Impact

Data were collected from 896 participants in three Chinese cities affected by the COVID-19 pandemic to varying degrees through an online survey platform. A conditional process model was then proposed for the impact of optimistic bias on self-protection behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of social norms. Statistical analysis demonstrates that optimistic bias has a negative impact on self-protection behaviors through message acceptance. Perceived social norms moderate this relationship in the following ways: (1) The higher the perceptions of social norms, the smaller the negative impact of optimistic bias on message acceptance, and the smaller the positive impact of message acceptance on self-protection behaviors. (2) Within a certain range, the higher the perceptions of social norms, the smaller the negative impact, both direct and indirect, of optimistic bias on self-protection behaviors. (3) The direct and indirect effects of optimistic bias on self-protection behaviors become insignificant when perceptions of social norms are very strong. Comparing the data of the three cities shows that higher risk is associated with a stronger role of social norms in moderating the relationship between optimistic bias and self-protection behaviors. The above results suggest that there may be both internal (optimistic bias) and external (social norms) reference points in individual decision-making regarding health behaviors. The theoretical and practical significance of the dual reference points are discussed.

Do Moderators of the Optimistic Bias Affect Personal or Target Risk Estimates? A Review of the Literature

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Helweg-Larsen ◽  
James A. Shepperd
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Control ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Negative Mood ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Optimistic Bias ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Trait And State Anxiety ◽  
And Control

The optimistic bias is defined as judging one's own risk as less than the risk of others. Researchers have identified numerous personal and situational factors that moderate the extent to which people display the bias. It is unclear, however, whether these moderators affect the bias by influencing people's personal risk estimates or their risk estimates for a target. A review of moderators of the optimistic bias reveals evidence for both influences. Moderators associated with negative affect (negative mood, dysphoria, trait and state anxiety, event severity, and proximity of feedback) and control related moderators (perceived control and prior experience) appear primarily to affect personal risk estimates. Positive mood affects target risk estimates. Finally, moderators that surround the comparison process appear to have different effects. Specifically, the type of comparison target appears to affect target risk estimates, whereas attention to personal risk-related behaviors affects personal risk estimates.

Optimistic Bias in the Perception of Personal Risk: Patterns in Schizophrenia

2005 ◽  
Vol 162 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen J. Prentice ◽  
James M. Gold ◽  
William T. Carpenter
Keyword(s):  
Optimistic Bias ◽  
Personal Risk

Process \'prǎ|,ses\n: The Action of Moving Forward Progressively from One Point to Another on the Way to Completion

1979 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol A. Pruning
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Communicative Behaviors ◽  
Adult Level ◽  
Remedial Programs ◽  
Stage Process ◽  
The Way

A rationale for the application of a stage process model for the language-disordered child is presented. The major behaviors of the communicative system (pragmatic-semantic-syntactic-phonological) are summarized and organized in stages from pre-linguistic to the adult level. The article provides clinicians with guidelines, based on complexity, for the content and sequencing of communicative behaviors to be used in planning remedial programs.

Risikowahrnehmung und Alkoholabhängigkeit

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 374-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Klepper ◽  
Michael Odenwald ◽  
Brigitte Rockstroh
Keyword(s):  
Optimistic Bias

Zusammenfassung. Zielsetzung: Alkoholabhängige Personen (AP) zeigen riskanten Alkoholkonsum trotz des Wissens um dessen objektive Risiken. Um die Bedeutung des Konstrukts Risikowahrnehmung für diese Diskrepanz zu überprüfen, wurde die „accuracy“ Hypothese und der „optimistic bias“ bei Alkoholabhängigkeit untersucht. Methodik: Zur Hypothesenprüfung wurden vier Dimensionen alkoholbezogener Risikowahrnehmung bei 73 stationär behandelten AP und 75 Kontrollpersonen (KP) anhand eines neu entwickelten deutschsprachigen Fragebogens verglichen und mit Alkoholkonsum in Beziehung gesetzt. Ergebnisse: AP schätzten im Vergleich zu KP eigene Risiken als höher ein und bewerteten diese als bedrohlicher. Trotz realistischer Wahrnehmung tendierten sie zu optimistischer Unterschätzung der eigenen Risiken. Wahrgenommene Vulnerabilität und Peer Vulnerabilität klärten neben der Diagnose Varianz im Konsum (AP: vor Behandlungsbeginn) auf. Der positive Zusammenhang zwischen Konsumverhalten und affektiver Bewertung von Risiken zeigte sich nur bei AP. Schlussfolgerungen: Die „accuracy“ Hypothese wurde bestätigt und konnte die realistische Wahrnehmung der Alkoholrisiken bei AP erklären. Gleichzeitig zeigten AP einen „optimistic bias“, welcher zu fortdauernd riskantem Trinken beitragen könnte. Das Konstrukt Risikowahrnehmung bietet Hypothesen für längsschnittliche Therapiestudien an, durch die weiterer Erkenntnisgewinn zu erwarten ist.

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