scholarly journals Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon in five European general circulation models

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Martin ◽  
K. Arpe ◽  
F. Chauvin ◽  
L. Ferranti ◽  
K. Maynard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Asian Summer

scholarly journals The Variability of the Indian–East Asian Summer Monsoon Interface in Relation to the Spring Seesaw Mode between the Indian Ocean and the Central-Western Pacific

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 5027-5040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Cao ◽  
Shu Gui ◽  
Qin Su ◽  
Yali Yang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Observational Analysis ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract The interannual zonal movement of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon (IIE), associated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) seesaw mode (SSTSM) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical central-western Pacific (TCWP), is studied for the period 1979–2008. The observational analysis is based on Twentieth Century Reanalysis data (version 2) of atmospheric circulations, Extended Reconstructed SST data (version 3), and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation. The results indicate that the IIE’s zonal movement is significantly and persistently correlated with the TIO–TCWP SSTSM, from spring to summer. The results of two case studies resemble those obtained by regression analysis. Experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM6) substantiate the key physical processes revealed in the observational analysis. When warmer (colder) SSTs appear in the TIO and colder (warmer) SSTs occur in the TCWP, the positive (negative) SSTSM forces anomalous easterly (westerly) winds over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), South China Sea (SCS), and western North Pacific (WNP). The anomalous easterly (westerly) winds further result in a weakened (strengthened) southwest summer monsoon over the BOB and a strengthened (weakened) southeast summer monsoon over the SCS and WNP. This causes the IIE to shift farther eastward (westward) than normal.

scholarly journals The Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7747-7766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Jun Hu ◽  
Zhixiang Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Heat Low

Abstract Temporal variability within the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon (TPSM) is closely linked to both the East and South Asian summer monsoons over several time scales but has received much less attention than these other systems. In this study, extensive integrations under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) historical scenarios from 15 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from eight atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are used to evaluate the performance of these GCMs. Results indicate that all GCMs are able to simulate the climate mean TPSM circulation system. However, the large bias associated with precipitation intensity and patterns remains, despite the higher resolution and inclusion of the indirect effects of sulfate aerosol that have helped to improve the skill of the models to simulate the annual cycle of precipitation in both AGCMs and CGCMs. The interannual variability of the surface heat low and the Tibetan high in most of the AGCMs resembles the observation reasonably because of the prescribed forcing fields. However, only a few models were able to reproduce the observed seesaw pattern associated with the interannual variability of the TPSM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Regarding long-term trends, most models overestimated the amplitude of the tropospheric warming and the declining trend in the surface heat low between 1979 and 2005. In addition, the observed cooling trend in the upper troposphere and the decline of the Tibetan high were not reproduced by most models. Therefore, there is still significant scope for improving GCM simulations of regional climate change, especially in regions near extensive mountain ranges.

The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air–Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8761-8777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengfei Song ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Surface Evaporation ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
High Skill

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air–sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The interannual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest eight models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies, and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO–western Pacific anticyclone (WPAC) teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the TEIO SST anomaly is warmer in CGCMs, since the easterly wind anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC reduce the climatological monsoon westerlies and decrease the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomaly and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the interannual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs.

Sensitivity of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation to the location of the Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Soo-Hyun Seok ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Asian Summer

AbstractRecent studies have highlighted that a primary mechanism of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is the fluid dynamical response to the Tibetan Plateau (TP), that is, orographically forced Rossby waves. With this mechanism in mind, this study explores how changes in the location of the TP affect the EASM precipitation. Specifically, the TP is moved in the four cardinal directions using idealized general circulation model experiments. The results show that the monsoon aspects are entirely determined by the location of the TP. Interestingly, the strongest EASM precipitation occurs when the TP is situated near its current location, a situation in which downstream southerlies are well developed from the surface to aloft. However, southerlies into the EASM region weaken as the TP moves, which in turn reduces the precipitation. Nevertheless, as long as it moves in the east–west direction, the TP is likely to force the stationary waves that induce precipitation over the mid-latitudes (not necessarily over East Asia). In contrast, moving the TP well north of its original location does not induce strong monsoon flows over the EASM region, resulting in the driest case. Meanwhile, although the southward movement of the TP triggers downstream southerlies to some extent, it does not lead to an increase in the precipitation. Overall, these results show that the location of the TP is crucial in determining the EASM precipitation, and the latter is much more sensitive to the displacement of the TP in the meridional direction than in the zonal direction.

Potential Changes in Extreme Events Under Global Climate Change

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji Dairaku ◽  
◽  
Seita Emori ◽  
Hironori Higashi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
A1b Scenario

Climate-related disasters are a serious problem in Asia. Advances in the understanding of meteorology and in the development of monitoring and forecasting systems have enhanced early warning systems, contributing immensely to reducing fatalities resulting from typhoons, cyclones, and floods. The frequency of extreme events causing water-related disasters has increased, however, over the last decade and may grow in the future due to anthropogenic activity. The sections that follow introduce two recent efforts in hydrologic projection in Asia. Time-slice ensemble experiments using a high-resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on the earth simulator revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggest increases in mean and extreme precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. increases generally attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content. a thermodynamic change. Dynamic changes limit the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arises from dynamic rather than thermodynamic changes. The impact of global warming on heavy precipitation features and flood risks in the Tama River basin in Japan is addressed using 12 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs). Multi-model ensemble average 200-year quantiles in Tokyo from 2050 to 2300 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario climate conditions were 1.07-1.20 times greater than that under present climate conditions. A 200-year quantile extreme event in the present occurs in much shorter return periods in the A1B scenario. High-water discharge in the basin rose by 10%-26% and flood volume increased by 46%-131% for precipitation in a 200-year return period. The risk of flooding in the basin is thus, even though the increase of extreme precipitation is not substantial, projected to be much higher than that presently estimated.

Simulation of Synoptic- and Subsynoptic-Scale Phenomena Associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using a High-Resolution GCM

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngar-Cheung Lau ◽  
Jeffrey J. Ploshay
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract A 20-yr simulation using a global atmospheric general circulation model with a resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.625° longitude is compared with observational findings. The primary goal of this survey is to assess the model performance in reproducing various summertime phenomena related to the continental-scale Asian monsoon in general, and the regional-scale East Asian monsoon in particular. In both model and observed atmospheres, the seasonal march of the precipitation centers associated with the Asian summer monsoon is characterized by onsets occurring earliest over the southeastern Bay of Bengal, followed by rapid northeastward advances over Indochina, the South China Sea–Philippine Sea and the western Pacific, northward evolution in the East Asian sector, as well as northwestward development over the Bay of Bengal, the Indian subcontinent, and the Arabian Sea. This onset sequence is accompanied by southwesterly low-level flows over the rainy regions, as well as northwestward migration of the 200-mb Tibetan anticyclone. Analysis of the heat sources and sinks in various regions illustrates the prominent role of condensational heating in the local energy budget during the mature phases of monsoon development. In accord with observations, the simulated monsoon rains in the East Asian sector are organized about zonally elongated “mei-yu–baiu” (plum rain) systems. These precipitation features advance to higher latitudes during the June–July period, in conjunction with displacements of the axis of the low-level anticyclone over the subtropical western Pacific. A detailed case study is performed on a prominent rainy episode in the simulation. The model is capable of reproducing the observed intense gradients in temperature, humidity, and moist static stability in the vicinity of the mei-yu–baiu front, as well as the spatial relationships between the rainband and the three-dimensional flow field. The axis of the mei-yu–baiu rainband in this event is aligned with the trajectory of a succession of mesoscale cyclonic vortices, which originate from southwestern China and travel northeastward over the Yangtze River basin.

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