scholarly journals Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

2013 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 3601-3617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Schmitz ◽  
Hermann Lotze-Campen ◽  
Dieter Gerten ◽  
Jan Philipp Dietrich ◽  
Benjamin Bodirsky ◽  
...  
2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3785-3808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens

Abstract. During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net) over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g. India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of past extreme events were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2679-2694 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gil ◽  
A. Garrido ◽  
N. Hernández-Mora

Abstract. The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.


2020 ◽  
Vol 588 ◽  
pp. 125086
Author(s):  
H. Nouri ◽  
B. Stokvis ◽  
S. Chavoshi Borujeni ◽  
A. Galindo ◽  
M. Brugnach ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1967-1977 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Dabrowski ◽  
E. Masekoameng ◽  
P. J. Ashton

Abstract. The concept of virtual water encourages a country to view agricultural crops in terms of the amount of water required to produce those crops, with a view to implementing trading policies that promote the saving of scarce water resources. Recently, increased attention has focussed on partitioning the virtual water content of crops into green and blue water (derived from rainfall and irrigation, respectively) as the latter has higher opportunity costs associated with its use and therefore impacts directly on scarcity. Maize is the most important crop traded within the SADC region. South Africa is the largest producer and exporter of maize, with the majority of its exports destined for other SADC countries. In comparison to other SADC countries, South Africa produces maize relatively efficiently, with a low virtual water content and a high green (868 m3 t−1) to blue (117 m3 t−1) water ratio. The blue water content is however higher than for maize produced in all other SADC countries, with the exception of Namibia (211 m3 t−1). Current trade patterns therefore result in a net expenditure of blue water (66×106 m3), almost all of which is exported by South Africa (65×106 m3). South Africa is one of the most water scarce countries in the region and analysis of virtual water flows indicates that current SADC maize trading patterns are influenced by national productivity as opposed to water scarcity. The virtual water content of maize was estimated for each of South Africa's nineteen Water Management Area's (WMA) and used as a proxy to represent water use efficiency for maize production. The virtual water content varied widely across all of the WMAs, ranging from 360 m3 t−1 in the Ustutu Mhlatuze to 1000 m3 t−1 in the Limpopo. A comparison of the virtual water content and production of maize (expressed as a percentage of the total national production) identified those WMAs where maize production is highly water inefficient (e.g. Lower Orange and Limpopo WMAs). Results suggest that, while a national estimate of the virtual water content of a crop may indicate a relatively efficient use of water, an analysis of the virtual water content at smaller scales can reveal inefficient use of water for the same crop. Therefore, analysis of the virtual water content of crops and trading of agricultural products at different spatial scales (i.e. regional, national and WMA) could be an important consideration within the context of water allocation, water use efficiency and alleviation of water scarcity.


2007 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Yu-Ting Lee ◽  
Tihomir Ancev ◽  
Willem Vervoort

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Hollander Anne ◽  
Vellinga Reina Elisabeth ◽  
Valk Elias de ◽  
Toxopeus Ido ◽  
Kamp Mirjam van de ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 5958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu ◽  
Jia ◽  
Wu ◽  
Wu ◽  
Xu ◽  
...  

The construction of hydropower stations is not without controversy as they have a certain degree of impact on the ecological environment. Moreover, the water footprint and its cumulative effects on the environment (The relationship between the degree of hydropower development and utilization in the basin and the environment) of the development and utilization of cascade hydropower stations are incompletely understood. In this paper, we calculate the evaporated water footprint (EWF, water evaporated from reservoirs) and the product water footprint of hydropower stations (PWF, water consumption per unit of electricity production), and the blue water scarcity (BWS, the ratio of the total blue water footprint to blue water availability) based on data from 19 selected hydropower stations in the Yalong River Basin, China. Results show that: (a) the EWFs in established, ongoing, proposed, and planning phases of 19 hydropower stations are 243, 123, 59, and 42 Mm3, respectively; (b) the PWF of 19 hydropower stations varies between 0.01 and 4.49 m3GJ−1, and the average PWF is 1.20 m3GJ−1. These values are quite small when compared with hydropower stations in other basins in the world, and the difference in PWF among different hydropower stations is mainly derived from energy efficiency factor; (c) all the BWS in the Yalong River Basin are below 100% (low blue water scarcity), in which the total blue water footprint is less than 20% of the natural flow, and environmental flow requirements are met. From the perspective of the water footprint method, the cumulative environmental effects of hydropower development and utilization in the Yalong River Basin will not affect the local environmental flow requirements.


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