scholarly journals Bioscatter transport by tropical cyclones: insights from 10 years in the Atlantic basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew S. Van Den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Atlantic Basin

scholarly journals Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11765-11769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banglin Zhang ◽  
Richard S. Lindzen ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Qingfu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Impacts

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

scholarly journals An Objective Identification and Climatology of Upper-Tropospheric Jets near Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (7) ◽  
pp. 3015-3036
Author(s):  
Levi P. Cowan ◽  
Robert E. Hart
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Clustering Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Jet Behavior ◽  
Consistent Feature ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
Westerly Jets

Abstract An objective algorithm is developed for identifying jets in 200-hPa flow and applied to reanalysis data within 2000 km of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) during 1979–2015. The resulting set of 16 512 jets is analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively to describe the climatology of TC–jet configurations and jet behavior near TCs. Jets occur most commonly poleward of TCs within the 500–1000-km annulus, where TC outflow amplifies the background potential vorticity gradient. A rigorous clustering analysis is performed, resulting in statistically distinct clusters of jet traces that correspond to common configurations of large-scale flow near Atlantic TCs. The speed structure of westerly jets poleward of TCs is found to vary with location in the Atlantic basin, but acceleration of jets downstream of their closest approach to the TC due to interaction with the TC’s diabatic outflow is a consistent feature of these structures. In addition to the climatology developed here, this objectively constructed dataset of upper-tropospheric jets opens unique avenues for exploring TC–environment interactions and utilizing jets to quantitatively describe large-scale flow.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico: Identification of Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-160
Author(s):  
Gabriel Sánchez-Rivera ◽  
Oscar Frausto-Martínez ◽  
Leticia Gómez-Mendoza ◽  
Ángel Refugio Terán-Cuevas ◽  
Julio Cesar Morales Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals Comparison of ARCHER MPERC to NHC Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Pulmano ◽  
Leya Joykutty
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycles ◽  
National Hurricane Center ◽  
Joint Typhoon Warning Center ◽  
Replacement Cycle

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) are events that occur in intense tropical cyclones (TCs) and are difficult to predict.  An ERC event involves a secondary outer eyewall that surrounds the inner eyewall.  The outer eyewall slowly moves towards the eye and weakens the inner eyewall, eventually replacing the inner eyewall.  During this process, wind speeds lower and the structure of a TC becomes disorganized, further weakening the storm.  TCs often restrengthen after an ERC.  Little is known about the process and as such, poses an obstacle to forecasters.  The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) is an algorithm that uses 89-95 GHz passive microwave imagery and intensity estimates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to predict the possibility of an ERC.  The effectiveness and ability of ARCHER MPERC was analyzed and compared to the NHC’s official reports on all Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from 2017 to 2019.   MPERC ultimately predicted seventeen ERCs in nine tropical cyclones.  Of those, seven were valid ERCs.  The algorithm works well, predicting approximately 41% of the total number of predictions correctly.  However, MPERC did not predict five ERCs that were cited by the NHC.  It was further found that it was true that MPERC produces incorrect results in sheared and dry environments.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on Numerical Model Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron S. Pratt ◽  
Jenni L. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Saharan Air Layer ◽  
The North ◽  
Gfs Model ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract Tropical cyclones have devastating impacts on countries across large parts of the globe, including the Atlantic basin. Thus, forecasting of the genesis of Atlantic tropical cyclones is important, but this problem remains a challenge for researchers and forecasters due to the variety of weather systems that can lead to tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., stalled frontal boundaries, African easterly waves, and extratropical cyclones), as well as the role of the surrounding environment in promoting or inhibiting the development into a tropical depression and beyond. In the North Atlantic, the effects of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a hot, dry dusty layer that moves into the eastern Atlantic basin, must be taken into account when forecasting whether genesis will occur. There are several characteristics of SAL that impact tropical cyclones (decreased midtropospheric moisture, increased midlevel shear, and enhanced stability). The purpose of this study is to examine the forecasting skill of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) model for the 2002 and 2003 Atlantic hurricane seasons, with particular regard paid to possible SAL effects on model genesis forecast accuracy. Cyclone phase space analyses of GFS 6-hourly forecasts were divided into three possible outcomes: S (successful forecasts that verified in cyclogenesis), F1 (cyclogenesis events that were not forecast to occur), and F2 (forecasted cyclogenesis that did not occur). The spatial variabilities of these outcomes for the early, middle, and late season were analyzed for both years, as well as the background environmental conditions. The large number of F2 forecasts that were seen in both years can be partly explained by the GFS model not capturing the detrimental effects of the SAL on cyclogenesis.

The World Wide Lightning Location Network and Convective Activity in Tropical Cyclones

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio F. Abarca ◽  
Kristen L. Corbosiero ◽  
David Vollaro
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Peak Current ◽  
The World

Abstract Lightning flash density in tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated to identify whether lightning flashes provide information on TC intensity and/or intensity change, to provide further insight into TC asymmetric convective structure induced by vertical shear and storm motion, and to assess how well the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) is suited for the observation of TCs. The 24 Atlantic basin TCs that came within 400 km of the United States from 2004 to 2007 are studied. The National Lightning Detection Network is used to analyze flash density as a function of peak current and to evaluate the WWLLN. Flash density is shown to be smaller for hurricanes than for tropical depressions and storms, with this reduction being gradually more pronounced as flash peak current increases. The results suggest that flash density in the inner core is a parameter with potential for distinguishing intensifying versus nonintensifying TCs, particularly in the weaker storm stages where flash densities are largest. Vertical wind shear produces a strong downshear left (right) asymmetry in the inner core (outer rainbands), whereas motion asymmetries are less clear. The unprecedented azimuthal resolution used in this study suggests that as shear strengthens, the azimuthal region of convection in the inner core is sharpened from a width of ∼130° to a width of ∼60°. The radial distribution of flash density is shown to exhibit a relatively narrow region of little activity (between 60 and 120 km from the eye), with increased activity in both regions closer to, and more distant from, the center (i.e., the eyewall and outer rainbands, respectively). Finally, it is shown that the WWLLN captures the convective activity in Atlantic basin TCs remarkably well, despite its low detection efficiency.

Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger ◽  
Robert E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Surface Temperatures
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document