Radar reflectivity and radial velocity assimilation in a Hybrid ETKF‐3DVAR System for Prediction of a Heavy Convective Rainfall

Author(s):  
P Thiruvengadam ◽  
J. Indu ◽  
Subimal Ghosh
Author(s):  
Yuanbo Ran ◽  
Haijiang Wang ◽  
Li Tian ◽  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Xiaohong Li

AbstractPrecipitation clouds are visible aggregates of hydrometeor in the air that floating in the atmosphere after condensation, which can be divided into stratiform cloud and convective cloud. Different precipitation clouds often accompany different precipitation processes. Accurate identification of precipitation clouds is significant for the prediction of severe precipitation processes. Traditional identification methods mostly depend on the differences of radar reflectivity distribution morphology between stratiform and convective precipitation clouds in three-dimensional space. However, all of them have a common shortcoming that the radial velocity data detected by Doppler Weather Radar has not been applied to the identification of precipitation clouds because it is insensitive to the convective movement in the vertical direction. This paper proposes a new method for precipitation clouds identification based on deep learning algorithm, which is according the distribution morphology of multiple radar data. It mainly includes three parts, which are Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator data (CAPPI) interpolation for radar reflectivity, Radial projection of the ground horizontal wind field by using radial velocity data, and the precipitation clouds identification based on Faster-RCNN. The testing result shows that the method proposed in this paper performs better than the traditional methods in terms of precision. Moreover, this method boasts great advantages in running time and adaptive ability.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Ronghua Liu ◽  
Liuqian Ding ◽  
Liang Guo ◽  
Bingyu Zhang

Abstract. As an effective technique to improve the rainfall forecast, data assimilation plays an important role in meteorology and hydrology. The aim of this study is to explore the reasonable use of Doppler radar data assimilation to correct the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied to simulate three typhoon storm events in southeast coast of China. Radar data from Changle Doppler radar station are assimilated with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVar) model. Nine assimilation modes are designed by three kinds of radar data (radar reflectivity, radial velocity, radar reflectivity and radial velocity) and three assimilation time intervals (1 h, 3 h and 6 h). The rainfall simulations in a medium-scale catchment, Meixi, are evaluated by three indices including relative error (RE), critical success index (CSI) and root mean square error (RMSE). Assimilating radial velocity with time interval of 1 h can significantly improve the rainfall simulations and outperforms the other modes for all the three storm events. Shortening the assimilation time interval can improve the rainfall simulations in most cases, while assimilating radar reflectivity always leads to worse simulation as the time interval shortens. The rainfall simulation can be improved by data assimilation as a whole, especially for the heavy rainfall with strong convection. The findings provide references for improving the typhoon rainfall forecasts in catchment scale and have great significance on typhoon rainstorm warning.


2011 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 362-368
Author(s):  
Xiang Hong Li ◽  
Li Hong Yao ◽  
Zhen Ming Lin

From 31 May to 1 June 2010, serious super high precipitation multi-cells caused convectional rainstorm in central region of Guangxi. The heaviest hour rainfall was 92mm, the heaviest rainfall for 48 hours was 503.9mm. The storms developed in the southwest warm moist wind and moved rightly. The radar reflectivity displayed several bow echoes moving from west to east along the 850hPa shear line. A line echo wave pattern developed. At 2.4°elevation angle, the maximum radar reflectivity of supercell reached 69dBz. The cross section of reflectivity showed that the 40dBz reflectivity core reached 9km in height, indicating a deep updraft. The radial velocity imagery showed with the mesocyclone features such as inverse wind area, the positive and negative velocity pairs. The VAD profile showed the deep warm-wet layer before the storm occurred. The 12m/s southwest wind reached 8km in depth. About 2 hours before the rainstorm, the VAD profile showed double dry region. When the double dry region appeared half hour later, the first rainstorm occurred. The numerical simulation analysis results indicated that the high precipitation multi-cell storms was produced and moved along the vortex path.


2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 1483-1502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengsi Liu ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Rong Kong

Abstract Radar reflectivity (Z) data are either directly assimilated using 3DVar, 4DVar, or ensemble Kalman filter, or indirectly assimilated using, for example, cloud analysis that preretrieves hydrometeors from Z. When directly assimilating radar data variationally, issues related to the highly nonlinear Z operator arise that can cause nonconvergence and bad analyses. To alleviate the issues, treatments are proposed in this study and their performances are examined via observing system simulation experiments. They include the following: 1) When using hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables (CVq), small background Z can cause extremely large cost function gradient. Lower limits are imposed on the mixing ratios (qLim treatment) or the equivalent reflectivity (ZeLim treatment) in Z observation operator. ZeLim is found to work better than qLim in terms of analysis accuracy and convergence speed. 2) With CVq, the assimilation of radial velocity (Vr) is ineffective when assimilated together with Z data due to the much smaller cost function gradient associated with Vr. A procedure (VrPass) that assimilates Vr data in a separate pass is found very helpful. 3) Using logarithmic hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables (CVlogq) can also avoid extremely large cost function gradient, and has much faster convergence. However, spurious analysis increments can be created when transforming the analysis increments back to mixing ratios. A background smoothing and a lower limit are applied to the background mixing ratios, and are shown to be effective. Using CVlogq with associated treatments produces better reflectivity analysis that is much closer to the observation without resorting to multiple analysis passes, and the cost function minimization also converges faster. CVlogq is therefore recommended for variational radar data assimilation.


2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 2259-2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastian Kirsch ◽  
Marco Clemens ◽  
Felix Ament

AbstractThe variability of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) contributes to large parts of the uncertainty in radar-based quantitative rainfall estimates. The variety of microphysical processes acting on the formation of rainfall generally leads to significantly different relationships between radar reflectivity Z and rain rate R for stratiform and convective rainfall. High-resolution observation data from three Micro Rain Radars in northern Germany are analyzed to quantify the potential of dual Z–R relationships to improve radar rainfall estimates under idealized rainfall type identification and separation. Stratiform and convective rainfall are separated with two methods, establishing thresholds for the rain rate-dependent mean drop size and the α coefficient of the power-law Z–R relationship. The two types of dual Z–R relationships are tested against a standard Marshall–Palmer relationship and a globally adjusted single relationship. The comparison of DSD-based and reflectivity-derived rain rates shows that the use of stratiform and convective Z–R relationships reduces the estimation error of the 6-month accumulated rainfall between 30% and 50% relative to a single Z–R relationship. Consistent results for neighboring locations are obtained at different rainfall intensity classes. The range of estimation errors narrows by between 20% and 40% for 10-s-integrated rain rates, dependent on rainfall intensity and separation method. The presented technique also considerably reduces the occurrence of extreme underestimations of the true rain rate for heavy rainfall, which is particularly relevant for operational applications and flooding predictions.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanbo Ran ◽  
Haijiang Wang ◽  
Li Tian ◽  
Jiang Wu ◽  
Xiaohong Li

Abstract Precipitation clouds are visible aggregates of hydrometeor in the air that floating in the atmos-phere after condensation, which can be divided into stratiform cloud and convective cloud. Different precipitation clouds often accompany different precipitation processes. Accurate identification of precipitation clouds is significant for the prediction of severe precipitation processes. Traditional identification methods mostly depend on the differences of radar reflectivity distribution morphology between stratiform and convective precipitation clouds in three-dimensional space. However, all of them have a common shortcoming that the radial velocity data detected by Doppler Weather Radar has not been applied to the identification of precipitation clouds because it is insensitive to the convective movement in the vertical direction. This paper proposes a new method for precipitation clouds identification based on deep learning algorithm, which is according the distribution morphology of multiple radar data. It mainly includes three parts, which are Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator data (CAPPI) inversion for radar reflectivity, Radial projection of the ground horizontal wind field by using radial velocity data, and the precipitation clouds identification based on Faster-RCNN. The testing result shows that the method proposed in this paper performs better than typical existing algorithms in terms of accuracy rate. Moreover, this method boasts great advantages in running time and adaptive ability.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Won Lee ◽  
Ki-Hong Min ◽  
Young-Hee Lee ◽  
GyuWon Lee

This study investigates the ability of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate summer precipitation with assimilation of X-band radar network data (X-Net) over the Seoul metropolitan area. Numerical data assimilation (DA) experiments with X-Net (S- and X-band Doppler radar) radial velocity and reflectivity data for three events of convective systems along the Changma front are conducted. In addition to the conventional assimilation of radar data, which focuses on assimilating the radial velocity and reflectivity of precipitation echoes, this study assimilates null-echoes and analyzes the effect of null-echo data assimilation on short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). A null-echo is defined as a region with non-precipitation echoes within the radar observation range. The model removes excessive humidity and four types of hydrometeors (wet and dry snow, graupel, and rain) based on the radar reflectivity by using a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation technique within the WRFDA system. Some procedures for preprocessing radar reflectivity data and using null-echoes in this assimilation are discussed. Numerical experiments with conventional radar DA over-predicted the precipitation. However, experiments with additional null-echo information removed excessive water vapor and hydrometeors and suppressed erroneous model precipitation. The results of statistical model verification showed improvements in the analysis and objective forecast scores, reducing the amount of over-predicted precipitation. An analysis of a contoured frequency by altitude diagram (CFAD) and time–height cross-sections showed that increased hydrometeors throughout the data assimilation period enhanced precipitation formation, and reflectivity under the melting layer was simulated similarly to the observations during the peak precipitation times. In addition, overestimated hydrometeors were reduced through null-echo data assimilation.


Author(s):  
Taylor B. Aydell ◽  
Craig B. Clements

AbstractRemote sensing techniques have been used to study and track wildfire smoke plume structure and evolution, however knowledge gaps remain due to the limited availability of observational datasets aimed at understanding fine-scale fire-atmosphere interactions and plume microphysics. While meteorological radars have been used to investigate the evolution of plume rise in time and space, highly resolved plume observations are limited. In this study, we present a new mobile millimeter-wave (Ka-band) Doppler radar system acquired to sample the fine-scale kinematics and microphysical properties of active wildfire smoke plumes from both wildfires and large prescribed fires. Four field deployments were conducted in the fall of 2019 during two wildfires in California and one prescribed burn in Utah. Radar parameters investigated in this study include reflectivity, radial velocity, Doppler spectrum width, Differential Reflectivity (ZDR), and copolarized correlation coefficients (ρHV). Observed radar reflectivity ranged between -15 and 20 dBZ in plume and radial velocity ranged 0 to 16 m s-1. Dual-polarimetric observations revealed that scattering sources within wildfire plumes are primarily nonspherical and oblate shaped targets as indicated by ZDR values measuring above 0 and ρHV values below 0.8 within the plume. Doppler spectrum width maxima were located near the updraft core region and were associated with radar reflectivity maxima.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Liu ◽  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Fuliang Yu ◽  
...  

Abstract. Data assimilation is an effective tool in improving high-resolution rainfall of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems which always fails in providing satisfactory rainfall products for hydrological use. The aim of this study is to explore the potential effects of assimilating different sources of observations from the Doppler weather radar and the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) in improving the mesoscale NWP rainfall products. A 24 h summer storm occurring over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of northern China on 21 July 2012 is selected in this study. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to obtain 3 km rainfall forecasts, and the observations are assimilated using the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation method. Eleven data assimilation modes are designed for assimilating different combinations of observations in the two nested domains of the WRF model. Results show that the assimilation can largely improve the WRF rainfall products especially the accumulative process of rainfall, which is of great importance for hydrologic applications through the rainfall-runoff transformation process. Both radar reflectivity and GTS data are good choices for assimilation in improving the rainfall products, whereas special attentions should be paid for assimilating radial velocity where unsatisfactory results are always found. Simultaneously assimilating GTS and radar data always perform better than assimilating radar data alone. The inclusion of GTS data in the nested domains when radar reflectivity and radial velocity are assimilated in the innermost domain show the best results among all the 11 assimilation modes. The assimilation efficiency of the GTS data is higher than both radar reflectivity and radial velocity considering the number of data assimilated and its effect. It is also found that the assimilation of more observations cannot guarantee further improvement of the rainfall products, whereas the effective information contained in the assimilated data is of more importance than the data quantity. Potential improvements of data assimilation in improving the NWP rainfall products are discussed and suggestions are also made.


10.29007/h6dv ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Fuliang Yu

Hydrological prediction needs high-resolution and accurate rainfall information, which can be provided by mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. However, the predicted rainfall is not always satisfactory for hydrological use. The assimilation of Doppler radar observations is found to be an effective method through correcting the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the NWP model. The aim of this study is to explore an efficient way of Doppler radar data assimilation from different height layers for mesoscale numerical rainfall prediction. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied to the Zijingguan catchment located in semi-humid and semi-arid area of Northern China. Three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVar) technique is adopted to assimilate the Doppler radar data. Radar reflectivity and radial velocity are assimilated separately and jointly. Each type of radar data are divided into seven data sets according to the observation heights: (1) <500m; (2) <1000m; (3) <2000m; (4) 500~1000m; (5) 1000~2000m; (6) >2000m; (7) all heights. Results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity leads to better results than radial velocity. The accuracy of the predicted rainfall deteriorates as the rise of the observation height of the assimilated radar data. Conclusions of this study provide a reference for efficient utilisation of the Doppler radar data in numerical rainfall prediction for hydrological use.


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