scholarly journals Overestimated acceleration of the advective Brewer–Dobson circulation due to stratospheric cooling

2020 ◽  
Vol 146 (733) ◽  
pp. 3850-3864
Author(s):  
Roland Eichinger ◽  
Petr Šácha
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Cooling

Influence of stratospheric cooling from CO2 on the ozone layer

Nature ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 283 (5743) ◽  
pp. 189-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. S. A. Isaksen ◽  
E. Hesstvedt ◽  
F. Stordal
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling

scholarly journals Analysis of stratospheric NO2 trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 12357-12389
Author(s):  
F. Hendrick ◽  
E. Mahieu ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
K. F. Boersma ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Rule Out

Abstract. The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E) is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1%/decade and −3.6 ± 0.9%/decade are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1%/decade, −4.3 ± 1.4%/decade, and −3.6 ± 2.2%/decade, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5%/decade trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3 → NO3 + O2 reaction. Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility that a strengthening of the Dobson-Brewer circulation, which reduces the time available for N2O photolysis in the stratosphere, could also contribute to the observed decline in stratospheric NO2 above Jungfraujoch.

scholarly journals Implication of tropical lower stratospheric cooling in recent trends in tropical circulation and deep convective activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2655-2669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunihiko Kodera ◽  
Nawo Eguchi ◽  
Rei Ueyama ◽  
Yuhji Kuroda ◽  
Chiaki Kobayashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling

Abstract. Large changes in tropical circulation from the mid-to-late 1990s to the present, in particular changes related to the summer monsoon and cooling of the sea surface in the equatorial eastern Pacific, are noted. The cause of such recent decadal variations in the tropics was studied using a meteorological reanalysis dataset. Cooling of the equatorial southeastern Pacific Ocean occurred in association with enhanced cross-equatorial southerlies that were associated with a strengthening of the deep ascending branch of the boreal summer Hadley circulation over the continental sector connected to stratospheric circulation. From boreal summer to winter, the anomalous convective activity center moves southward following the seasonal march to the equatorial Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent region, which strengthens the surface easterlies over the equatorial central Pacific. Accordingly, ocean surface cooling extends over the equatorial central Pacific. We suggest that the fundamental cause of the recent decadal change in the tropical troposphere and the ocean is a poleward shift of convective activity that resulted from a strengthening of extreme deep convection penetrating into the tropical tropopause layer, particularly over the African and Asian continents and adjacent oceans. We conjecture that the increase in extreme deep convection is produced by a combination of land surface warming due to increased CO2 and a reduction of static stability in the tropical tropopause layer due to tropical stratospheric cooling.

scholarly journals Changes in clouds and thermodynamics under solar geoengineering and implications for required solar reduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick D. Russotto ◽  
Thomas P. Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Solar Constant ◽  
Low Cloud ◽  
Solar Geoengineering ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The amount of solar constant reduction required to offset the global warming from an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is an interesting question with implications for assessing the feasibility of solar geoengineering scenarios and for improving our theoretical understanding of Earth's climate response to greenhouse gas and solar forcings. This study investigates this question by analyzing the results of 11 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models running Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which CO2 concentrations are abruptly quadrupled and the solar constant is simultaneously reduced by an amount tuned to maintain top of atmosphere energy balance and preindustrial global mean temperature. The required solar constant reduction in G1 is between 3.2 % and 5.0 %, depending on the model, and is uncorrelated with the models' equilibrium climate sensitivity, while a formula from the experiment specifications based on the models' effective CO2 forcing and planetary albedo is well-correlated with but consistently underpredicts the required solar reduction. We propose an alternative theory for the required solar reduction based on CO2 instantaneous forcing and the sum of radiative adjustments to the combined CO2 and solar forcings. We quantify these radiative adjustments in G1 using established methods and explore changes in atmospheric temperature, humidity and cloud fraction in order to understand the causes of these radiative adjustments. The zonal mean temperature response in G1 exhibits cooling in the tropics and warming in high latitudes at the surface; greater cooling in the upper troposphere at all latitudes; and stratospheric cooling which is mainly due to the CO2 increase. Tropospheric specific humidity decreases due to the temperature decrease, while stratospheric humidity may increase or decrease depending on the model's temperature change in the tropical tropopause layer. Low cloud fraction decreases in all models in G1, an effect that is robust and widespread across ocean and vegetated land areas. We attribute this to a reduction in boundary layer inversion strength over the ocean, and a reduction in the release of water from plants due to the increased CO2. High cloud fraction increases in the global mean in most models. The low cloud fraction reduction and atmospheric temperature decrease have strong warming effects on the planet, due to reduced reflection of shortwave radiation and reduced emission of longwave radiation, respectively. About 50 % to 75 % of the temperature effect is caused by the stratospheric cooling, while the reduction in atmospheric humidity results in increased outgoing longwave radiation that roughly offsets the tropospheric temperature effect. Taken together, the sum of the diagnosed radiative adjustments and the CO2 instantaneous forcing predicts the required solar forcing in G1 to within about 6 %. The cloud fraction response to the G1 experiment raises interesting questions about cloud rapid adjustments and feedbacks under solar versus greenhouse forcings, which would be best explored in a model intercomparison framework with a solar-forcing-only experiment.

The Impact of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Tropical Upwelling, as Revealed by the Absence of Lower-Stratospheric Cooling since the Late 1990s

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2523-2534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Valentina Aquila ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

The impact of ozone-depleting substances on global lower-stratospheric temperature trends is widely recognized. In the tropics, however, understanding lower-stratospheric temperature trends has proven more challenging. While the tropical lower-stratospheric cooling observed from 1979 to 1997 has been linked to tropical ozone decreases, those ozone trends cannot be of chemical origin, as active chlorine is not abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere. The 1979–97 tropical ozone trends are believed to originate from enhanced upwelling, which, it is often stated, would be driven by increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases. This study, using simple arguments based on observational evidence after 1997, combined with model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, argues that trends in ozone-depleting substances, not well-mixed greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of temperature and ozone trends in the tropical lower stratosphere until 1997, and this has occurred because ozone-depleting substances are key drivers of tropical upwelling and, more generally, of the entire Brewer–Dobson circulation.

Hadley Cell Widening: Model Simulations versus Observations

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2713-2725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celeste M. Johanson ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The West ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Future Climate Projections

Abstract Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2°–5° since 1979. This widening and the concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying near 30°N and 30°S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established rainfall patterns. Simple and comprehensive general circulation models (GCMs) indicate that the Hadley cell may widen in response to global warming, warming of the west Pacific, or polar stratospheric cooling. The combination of these factors may be responsible for the recent observations. But there is no study so far that has compared the observed widening to GCM simulations of twentieth-century climate integrated with historical changes in forcings. Here the Hadley cell widening is assessed in current GCMs from historical simulations of the twentieth century as well as future climate projections and preindustrial control runs. The authors find that observed widening cannot be explained by natural variability. This observed widening is also significantly larger than in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. These results illustrate the need for further investigation into the discrepancy between the observed and simulated widening of the Hadley cell.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1705-1714 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Xu ◽  
L. Zhao ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5), although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere, and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and north polar regions.

scholarly journals Robustness of Tropospheric Temperature Trends from MSU Channels 2 and 4

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4234-4242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celeste M. Johanson ◽  
Qiang Fu
Keyword(s):  
Training Dataset ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Microwave Sounding Unit ◽  
Microwave Sounding ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Tropospheric temperature trends based on Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 data are susceptible to contamination from strong stratospheric cooling. Recently, Fu et al. devised a method of removing the stratospheric contamination by linearly combining data from MSU channels 2 and 4. In this study the sensitivity of the weights of the two channels in the retrieval algorithm for the tropospheric temperatures to the choice of period of record used in the analysis and to the choice of training dataset is examined. The weights derived using monthly temperature anomalies are within about 10% of those obtained by Fu et al. irrespective of the choice of analysis period or training dataset. The trend errors in the retrieved global-mean tropospheric temperatures tested using two independent radiosonde datasets are less than about 0.01 K decade−1 for all time periods of 25 yr or longer with different starting and ending years during 1958–2004. It is found that the retrievals are more robust if they are interpreted in terms of the layer-mean temperature for the entire troposphere, rather than the mean of the 850–300-hPa layer. Because large spurious jumps remain in the reanalyses, especially prior to 1979, one should be cautious when using them as training datasets and in testing the trend errors.

scholarly journals Analysis of stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> trends above Jungfraujoch using ground-based UV-visible, FTIR, and satellite nadir observations

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 8851-8864 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hendrick ◽  
E. Mahieu ◽  
G. E. Bodeker ◽  
K. F. Boersma ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Rule Out

Abstract. The trend in stratospheric NO2 column at the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) station of Jungfraujoch (46.5° N, 8.0° E) is assessed using ground-based FTIR and zenith-scattered visible sunlight SAOZ measurements over the period 1990 to 2009 as well as a composite satellite nadir data set constructed from ERS-2/GOME, ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY, and METOP-A/GOME-2 observations over the 1996–2009 period. To calculate the trends, a linear least squares regression model including explanatory variables for a linear trend, the mean annual cycle, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar activity, and stratospheric aerosol loading is used. For the 1990–2009 period, statistically indistinguishable trends of −3.7 ± 1.1% decade−1 and −3.6 ± 0.9% decade−1 are derived for the SAOZ and FTIR NO2 column time series, respectively. SAOZ, FTIR, and satellite nadir data sets show a similar decrease over the 1996–2009 period, with trends of −2.4 ± 1.1% decade−1, −4.3 ± 1.4% decade−1, and −3.6 ± 2.2% decade−1, respectively. The fact that these declines are opposite in sign to the globally observed +2.5% decade−1 trend in N2O, suggests that factors other than N2O are driving the evolution of stratospheric NO2 at northern mid-latitudes. Possible causes of the decrease in stratospheric NO2 columns have been investigated. The most likely cause is a change in the NO2/NO partitioning in favor of NO, due to a possible stratospheric cooling and a decrease in stratospheric chlorine content, the latter being further confirmed by the negative trend in the ClONO2 column derived from FTIR observations at Jungfraujoch. Decreasing ClO concentrations slows the NO + ClO → NO2 + Cl reaction and a stratospheric cooling slows the NO + O3 → NO2 + O2 reaction, leaving more NOx in the form of NO. The slightly positive trends in ozone estimated from ground- and satellite-based data sets are also consistent with the decrease of NO2 through the NO2 + O3 → NO3 + O2 reaction. Finally, we cannot rule out the possibility that a strengthening of the Dobson-Brewer circulation, which reduces the time available for N2O photolysis in the stratosphere, could also contribute to the observed decline in stratospheric NO2 above Jungfraujoch.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document