scholarly journals Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events

2020 ◽  
Vol 146 (732) ◽  
pp. 3503-3521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy H. Butler ◽  
Zachary D. Lawrence ◽  
Simon H. Lee ◽  
Samuel P. Lillo ◽  
Craig S. Long
Keyword(s):  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Vortex Split

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier García-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Model Database

AbstractThe predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).

Planetary Wave Breaking and Tropospheric Forcing as Seen in the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of 2006

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Coy ◽  
Stephen Eckermann ◽  
Karl Hoppel
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ◽  
Advanced Level ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Surface

Abstract The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) of January 2006 is examined using meteorological fields from Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) analyses and forecast fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System–Advanced Level Physics, High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA). The study focuses on the upper tropospheric forcing that led to the major SSW and the vertical structure of the subtropic wave breaking near 10 hPa that moved low tropical values of potential vorticity (PV) to the pole. Results show that an eastward-propagating upper tropospheric ridge over the North Atlantic with its associated cold temperature perturbations (as manifested by high 360-K potential temperature surface perturbations) and large positive local values of meridional heat flux directly forced a change in the stratospheric polar vortex, leading to the stratospheric subtropical wave breaking and warming. Results also show that the anticyclonic development, initiated by the subtropical wave breaking and associated with the poleward advection of the low PV values, occurred over a limited altitude range of approximately 6–10 km. The authors also show that the poleward advection of this localized low-PV anomaly was associated with changes in the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux from equatorward to poleward, suggesting an important role for Rossby wave reflection in the SSW of January 2006. Similar upper tropospheric forcing and subtropical wave breaking were found to occur prior to the major SSW of January 2003.

The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-63
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Motivated by the strong Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2019, a survey on the similar Antarctic weak polar events (WPV) is presented, including their life cycle, dynamics, seasonality, and climatic impacts. The Antarctic WPVs have a frequency of about four events per decade, with the 2002 event being the only major SSW. They show a similar life cycle to the SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere but have a longer duration. They are primarily driven by enhanced upward-propagating wavenumber 1 in the presence of a preconditioned polar stratosphere, i.e., a weaker and more contracted Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. Antarctic WPVs occur mainly in the austral spring. Their early occurrence is preceded by an easterly anomaly in the middle and upper equatorial stratosphere besides the preconditioned polar stratosphere. The Antarctic WPVs increase the ozone concentration in the polar region and are associated with an advanced seasonal transition of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one week. Their frequency doubles after 2000 and is closely related to the advanced Antarctic stratospheric final warming in recent decades. The WPV-resultant negative phase of the southern annular mode descends to the troposphere and persists for about three months, leading to persistent hemispheric scale temperature and precipitation anomalies.

scholarly journals Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 13547-13579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary D. Lawrence ◽  
Gloria L. Manney ◽  
Krzysztof Wargan
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Low Sensitivity

Abstract. We compare herein polar processing diagnostics derived from the four most recent “full-input” reanalysis datasets: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis, the Japanese Meteorological Agency's 55-year (JRA-55) reanalysis, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). We focus on diagnostics based on temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) in the lower-to-middle stratosphere that are related to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation, and the strength, size, and longevity of the stratospheric polar vortex. Polar minimum temperatures (Tmin) and the area of regions having temperatures below PSC formation thresholds (APSC) show large persistent differences between the reanalyses, especially in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), for years prior to 1999. Average absolute differences of the reanalyses from the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) in Tmin are as large as 3 K at some levels in the SH (1.5 K in the Northern Hemisphere – NH), and absolute differences of reanalysis APSC from the REM up to 1.5 % of a hemisphere (0.75 % of a hemisphere in the NH). After 1999, the reanalyses converge toward better agreement in both hemispheres, dramatically so in the SH: average Tmin differences from the REM are generally less than 1 K in both hemispheres, and average APSC differences less than 0.3 % of a hemisphere. The comparisons of diagnostics based on isentropic PV for assessing polar vortex characteristics, including maximum PV gradients (MPVGs) and the area of the vortex in sunlight (or sunlit vortex area, SVA), show more complex behavior: SH MPVGs showed convergence toward better agreement with the REM after 1999, while NH MPVGs differences remained largely constant over time; differences in SVA remained relatively constant in both hemispheres. While the average differences from the REM are generally small for these vortex diagnostics, understanding such differences among the reanalyses is complicated by the need to use different methods to obtain vertically resolved PV for the different reanalyses. We also evaluated other winter season summary diagnostics, including the winter mean volume of air below PSC thresholds, and vortex decay dates. For the volume of air below PSC thresholds, the reanalyses generally agree best in the SH, where relatively small interannual variability has led to many winter seasons with similar polar processing potential and duration, and thus low sensitivity to differences in meteorological conditions among the reanalyses. In contrast, the large interannual variability of NH winters has given rise to many seasons with marginal conditions that are more sensitive to reanalysis differences. For vortex decay dates, larger differences are seen in the SH than in the NH; in general, the differences in decay dates among the reanalyses follow from persistent differences in their vortex areas. Our results indicate that the transition from the reanalyses assimilating Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data to advanced TOVS and other data around 1998–2000 resulted in a profound improvement in the agreement of the temperature diagnostics presented (especially in the SH) and to a lesser extent the agreement of the vortex diagnostics. We present several recommendations for using reanalyses in polar processing studies, particularly related to the sensitivity to changes in data inputs and assimilation. Because of these sensitivities, we urge great caution for studies aiming to assess trends derived from reanalysis temperatures. We also argue that one of the best ways to assess the sensitivity of scientific results on polar processing is to use multiple reanalysis datasets.

scholarly journals Quantifying Asymmetric Wave Breaking and Two-Way Transport

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (22) ◽  
pp. 2735-2748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noboru Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Advection Diffusion Equation ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause ◽  
Asymmetric Wave

Abstract Effective diffusivity calculated from a scalar field that obeys the advection–diffusion equation has proved useful for estimating the permeability of unsteady boundaries of air masses such as the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and the extratropical tropopause. However, the method does not discriminate the direction of transport—whereas some material crosses the boundary from one side to the other, some material does so in the other direction—yet the extant method concerns only the net transport. In this paper, the diagnostic is extended to allow partitioning of fluxes of mass and tracer into opposing directions. This is accomplished by discriminating the regions of “inward” and “outward” wave breaking with the local curvature of the tracer field. The utility of the new method is demonstrated for nonlinear Kelvin– Helmholtz instability and Rossby wave breaking in the stratosphere using a numerically generated tracer. The method successfully quantifies two-way transport and hence the direction of wave breaking—the predominantly equatorward breaking of Rossby waves in the extratropical middle stratosphere, for example. Isolated episodes of mixing are identified well, particularly by the mass flux that primarily arises from the tracer filaments. Comparison of different transport schemes suggests that the results are reasonably robust under a varying subgrid representation of the model.

scholarly journals Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (18) ◽  
pp. 7125-7139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Byrne ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
R. Alan Plumb
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Time Symmetry

Abstract Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using reanalysis data, that this variability is rendered highly nonstationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed.

scholarly journals Polar processing in a split vortex: early winter Arctic ozone loss in 2012/13

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 4973-5029 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. L. Manney ◽  
Z. D. Lawrence ◽  
M. L. Santee ◽  
N. J. Livesey ◽  
A. Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Acid ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Chlorine Monoxide ◽  
Polar Stratospheric Cloud ◽  
Vortex Split

Abstract. A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early January 2013 caused the polar vortex to split. After the lower stratospheric vortex split on 8 January, the two offspring vortices – one over Canada and the other over Siberia – remained intact, well-confined, and largely at latitudes that received sunlight until they reunited at the end of January. As the SSW began, temperatures abruptly rose above chlorine activation thresholds throughout the lower stratosphere. The vortex was very disturbed prior to the SSW, and was exposed to much more sunlight than usual in December 2012 and January 2013. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) nitric acid (HNO3) data and observations from CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) indicate extensive polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) activity, with evidence of PSCs containing solid nitric acid trihydrate particles during much of December 2012. Consistent with the sunlight exposure and PSC activity, MLS observations show that chlorine monoxide (ClO) became enhanced early in December. Despite the cessation of PSC activity with the onset of the SSW, enhanced vortex ClO persisted until mid-February, indicating lingering chlorine activation. The smaller Canadian offspring vortex had lower temperatures, lower HNO3, lower hydrogen chloride (HCl), and higher ClO in late January than the Siberian vortex. Chlorine deactivation began later in the Canadian than in the Siberian vortex. HNO3 remained depressed within the vortices after temperatures rose above the PSC existence threshold, and passive transport calculations indicate vortex-averaged denitrification of about 4 ppbv; the resulting low HNO3 values persisted until the vortex dissipated in mid-February. Consistent with the strong chlorine activation and exposure to sunlight, MLS measurements show rapid ozone loss commencing in mid-December and continuing through January. Lagrangian transport estimates suggest ~ 0.7–0.8 ppmv (parts per million by volume) vortex-averaged chemical ozone loss by late January near 500 K (~ 21 km), with substantial loss occurring from ~ 450 to 550 K. The surface area of PSCs in December 2012 was larger than that in any other December observed by CALIPSO. As a result of denitrification, HNO3 abundances in 2012/13 were among the lowest in the MLS record for the Arctic. ClO enhancement was much greater in December 2012 through mid-January 2013 than that at the corresponding time in any other Arctic winter observed by MLS. Furthermore, reformation of HCl appeared to play a greater role in chlorine deactivation than in more typical Arctic winters. Ozone loss in December 2012 and January 2013 was larger than any previously observed in those months. This pattern of exceptional early winter polar processing and ozone loss resulted from the unique combination of dynamical conditions associated with the early January 2013 SSW, namely unusually low temperatures in December 2012 and offspring vortices that remained well-confined and largely in sunlit regions for about a month after the vortex split.

scholarly journals A meridional structure of static stability and ozone vertical gradient around the tropopause in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 19175-19194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tomikawa ◽  
T. Yamanouchi
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. An analysis of the static stability and ozone vertical gradient in the ozone tropopause based (OTB) coordinate is applied to the ozonesonde data at 10 stations in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. The tropopause inversion layer (TIL) with a static stability maximum just above the tropopause shows similar seasonal variations at two Antarctic stations, which are latitudinally far from each other. Since the sunshine hour varies with time in a quite different way between these two stations, it implies that the radiative heating due to solar ultraviolet absorption of ozone does not contribute to the seasonal variation of the TIL. A meridional section of the static stability in the OTB coordinate shows that the static stability just above the tropopause has a large latitudinal gradient between 60° S and 70° S in austral winter because of the absence of the TIL over the Antarctic. It is accompanied by an increase of westerly shear with height above the tropopause, so that the polar-night jet is formed above this latitude region. This result suggests a close relationship between the absence of the TIL and the stratospheric polar vortex in the Antarctic winter. A vertical gradient of ozone mixing ratio, referred to as ozone vertical gradient, around the tropopause shows similar latitudinal and seasonal variations with the static stability in the SH extratropics. In a height region above the TIL, a small ozone vertical gradient in the midlatitudes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole is observed in a height region of the subvortex but not around the polar vortex. This is a clear evidence of active latitudinal mixing between the midlatitudes and subvortex.

The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part I: Simplified Dry GCMs

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1273-1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Dennis L. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract A dry primitive equation model is used to explain how the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical stratosphere can influence the troposphere, even in the absence of tropical convection anomalies and a variable stratospheric polar vortex. QBO momentum anomalies induce a meridional circulation to maintain thermal wind balance. This circulation includes zonal wind anomalies that extend from the equatorial stratosphere into the subtropical troposphere. In the presence of extratropical eddies, the zonal wind anomalies are intensified and extend downward to the surface. The tropospheric response differs qualitatively between integrations in which the subtropical jet is strong and integrations in which the subtropical jet is weak. While fluctuation–dissipation theory provides a guide to predicting the response in some cases, significant nonlinearity in others, particularly those designed to model the midwinter subtropical jet of the North Pacific, prevents its universal application. When the extratropical circulation is made zonally asymmetric, the response to the QBO is greatest in the exit region of the subtropical jet. The dry model is able to simulate much of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime tropospheric response to the QBO observed in reanalysis datasets and in long time integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM).

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