scholarly journals The added value of convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble

2019 ◽  
Vol 145 (721) ◽  
pp. 1780-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Cafaro ◽  
Thomas H. A. Frame ◽  
John Methven ◽  
Nigel Roberts ◽  
Jochen Bröcker
Keyword(s):  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Bayesian Forecast

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 972-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wang ◽  
Simona Tascu ◽  
Florian Weidle ◽  
Karin Schmeisser
Keyword(s):  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Surface Weather

Abstract The regional single-model-based Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS to investigate the added value of regional to global EPS models. ALADIN-LAEF consists of 16 perturbed members at 18-km horizontal resolution, while ECMWF-EPS includes 50 perturbed members at 50-km horizontal resolution. In ALADIN-LAEF, the atmospheric initial condition uncertainty is quantified by using blending, which combines large-scale uncertainty generated by the ECMWF-EPS singular-vector approach with small-scale perturbations resolved by the ALADIN breeding technique. The surface initial condition perturbations are generated by use of the noncycling surface breeding (NCSB) technique, and different physics schemes are employed for different forecast members to account for model uncertainties. The verification and comparison have been carried out for a 2-month period during summer 2007 over central Europe. The results show a quite favorable level of performance for ALADIN-LAEF compared to ECMWF-EPS for surface weather variables. ALADIN-LAEF adds more value to precipitation forecasts and has greater skill for 10-m wind and mean sea level pressure results than does ECMWF-EPS. For 2-m temperature, ALADIN-LAEF forecasts have larger spread, are statistically more consistent, but also have less skill than ECMWF-EPS due to the strong cold bias in the ALADIN forecasts. For the upper-air weather parameters, the forecast of ALADIN-LAEF has a larger spread, but the forecast skill of ALADIN-LAEF is from neutral to slightly inferior compared to ECMWF-EPS. It may be concluded that a regional single-model-based EPS with fewer ensemble members could provide more added value in terms of greater skill for near-surface weather variables than the global EPS with larger ensemble size, whereas it may have limitations when applied to upper-air weather variables.

scholarly journals Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 2669-2678 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Dutra ◽  
W. Pozzi ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
F. Di Giuseppe ◽  
L. Magnusson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Centre ◽  
The World

Abstract. Global seasonal forecasts of meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) are produced using two data sets as initial conditions: the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI); and two seasonal forecasts of precipitation, the most recent ECMWF seasonal forecast system and climatologically based ensemble forecasts. The forecast evaluation focuses on the periods where precipitation deficits are likely to have higher drought impacts, and the results were summarized over different regions in the world. The verification of the forecasts with lead time indicated that generally for all regions the least reduction on skill was found for (i) long lead times using ERAI or GPCC for monitoring and (ii) short lead times using ECMWF or climatological seasonal forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month of lead time for the SPI-3, 4 months for the SPI-6 and 6 (or more) months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value with skills at least equal to and often above that of climatological forecasts. Furthermore, it is very difficult to improve on the use of climatological forecasts for long lead times. Our results also support recent questions of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset was essentially a stochastic forecasting problem. Results are presented regionally and globally, and our results point to several regions in the world where drought onset forecasting is feasible and skilful.

scholarly journals The benefits of pre- and postprocessing streamflow forecasts for an operational flood-forecasting system of 119 Norwegian catchments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine J. Hegdahl ◽  
Kolbjørn Engeland ◽  
Ingelin Steinsland ◽  
Andrew Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Processing Scheme ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts

Abstract. The novelty of this study is to evaluate the univariate and the combined effects of including both precipitation and temperature forecasts in the preprocessing together with the postprocessing of streamflow for forecasting of floods as well as all streamflow values for a large sample of catchments. A hydrometeorological forecasting chain in an operational flood forecasting setting with 119 Norwegian catchments was used. This study evaluates the added value of pre- and postprocessing methods for ensemble forecasts in a hydrometeorological forecasting chain in an operational flood forecasting setting with 119 Norwegian catchments. Two years of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) with a lead-time up to 9 days were used to force the operational hydrological HBV model to establish streamflow forecasts. Two approaches to preprocess the temperature and precipitation forecasts were tested. 1) An existing approach applied to the gridded forecasts using quantile mapping for temperature and a Bernoulli-gamma distribution for precipitation. 2) Bayesian model averaging (BMA) applied to catchment average values of temperature and precipitation. BMA was also used for postprocessing catchment streamflow forecasts. Ensemble forecasts of streamflow were generated for a total of fourteen schemes based on combinations of raw, preprocessed, and postprocessed forecasts in the hydrometeorological forecasting chain. The aim of this study is to assess which pre- and postprocessing approaches should be used to improve streamflow and flood forecasts and look for regional or seasonal patterns in preferred approaches. The forecasts were evaluated for two datasets: i) all streamflows and ii) flood events with streamflow above mean annual flood. Evaluations were based on reliability, continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and -skill score (CRPSS). For the flood dataset, the critical success index (CSI) was used. Evaluations based on all streamflow data showed that postprocessing improved the forecasts only up to a lead-time of two to three days, whereas preprocessing T and P using BMA improved the forecasts for 50 %–90 % of the catchments beyond three days lead-time. However, for flood events, the added value of pre- and postprocessing is smaller. Preprocessing of P and T gave better CRPS for marginally more catchments compared to the other schemes. Based on CSI, we found that many of the forecast schemes perform equally well. Further, we found large differences in the ability to issue warnings between spring and autumn floods. There was almost no ability to predict autumn floods beyond 3 days, whereas the spring floods had predictability up to 9 days for many events and catchments. The results indicate that the ensemble forecasts have problems in predicting correct autumn precipitation, and the uncertainty is larger for heavy autumn precipitation compared to spring events when temperature driven snow melt is important. To summarize we find that the flood forecasts benefit from most pre-and postprocessing schemes, although the best processing approaches depend on region, catchment, and season, and that the processing scheme should be tailored to each catchment, lead time, season and the purpose of the forecasting.

scholarly journals Improved Estimates of the European Winter Windstorm Climate and the Risk of Reinsurance Loss Using Climate Model Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (10) ◽  
pp. 2092-2120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M. Della-Marta ◽  
Mark A. Liniger ◽  
Christof Appenzeller ◽  
David N. Bresch ◽  
Pamela Köllner-Heck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
High Threshold ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Value Analysis

Abstract Current estimates of the European windstorm climate and their associated losses are often hampered by either relatively short, coarse resolution or inhomogeneous datasets. This study tries to overcome some of these shortcomings by estimating the European windstorm climate using dynamical seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) climate forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The current s2d models have limited predictive skill of European storminess, making the ensemble forecasts ergodic samples on which to build pseudoclimates of 310–396 yr in length. Extended winter (October–April) windstorm climatologies are created using scalar extreme wind indices considering only data above a high threshold. The method identifies up to 2363 windstorms in s2d data and up to 380 windstorms in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Classical extreme value analysis (EVA) techniques are used to determine the windstorm climatologies. Differences between the ERA-40 and s2d windstorm climatologies require the application of calibration techniques to result in meaningful comparisons. Using a combined dynamical–statistical sampling technique, the largest influence on ERA-40 return period (RP) uncertainties is the sampling variability associated with only 45 seasons of storms. However, both maximum likelihood (ML) and L-moments (LM) methods of fitting a generalized Pareto distribution result in biased parameters and biased RP at sample sizes typically obtained from 45 seasons of reanalysis data. The authors correct the bias in the ML and LM methods and find that the ML-based ERA-40 climatology overestimates the RP of windstorms with RPs between 10 and 300 yr and underestimates the RP of windstorms with RPs greater than 300 yr. A 50-yr event in ERA-40 is approximately a 40-yr event after bias correction. Biases in the LM method result in higher RPs after bias correction although they are small when compared with those of the ML method. The climatologies are linked to the Swiss Reinsurance Company (Swiss Re) European windstorm loss model. New estimates of the risk of loss are compared with those from historical and stochastically generated windstorm fields used by Swiss Re. The resulting loss-frequency relationship matches well with the two independently modeled estimates and clearly demonstrates the added value by using alternative data and methods, as proposed in this study, to estimate the RP of high RP losses.

scholarly journals Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 369-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Vogel ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Andreas Schlueter ◽  
Tilmann Gneiting
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Model Output Statistics

AbstractAccumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is analyzed relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1–5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons during 2007–14 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods were applied in the form of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and results were verified against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated and unreliable, and often underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. The differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles but, somewhat disappointingly, typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007–14, but overall they have little added value compared to climatology. The suspicion is that parameterization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

scholarly journals Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 919-944 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Dutra ◽  
W. Pozzi ◽  
F. Wetterhall ◽  
F. Di Giuseppe ◽  
L. Magnusson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
The World ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. Global seasonal forecasts of meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) are produced using two datasets as initial conditions: the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI); and two seasonal forecasts of precipitation: the most current ECMWF seasonal forecast system and climatologically based ensemble forecasts. The forecast skill is concentrated on verification months where precipitation deficits are likely to have higher drought impacts and grouped over different regions in the world. Verification of the forecasts as a function of lead time revealed a reduced impact on skill for: (i) long lead times using different initial conditions, and (ii) short lead times using different precipitation forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month lead time for the SPI-3, 3 to 4 months for the SPI-6 and 5 months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value, a skill similar or better than climatological forecasts. In some cases, particularly for long SPI time scales, it is very difficult to improve on the use of climatological forecasts. Our results also support recent questions whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset was essentially a stochastic forecasting problem. Results are presented regionally and globally, and our results point to several regions in the world where drought onset forecasting is feasible and skilful.

scholarly journals Seamless postprocessing of multi-model NWP surface wind forecasts with deep learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Nerini ◽  
Jonas Bhend ◽  
Christoph Spirig ◽  
Lionel Moret ◽  
Mark Liniger
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Late Model ◽  
Set Up

<p>Hourly wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction models suffer from a range of systematic and random errors that are to a great extent related to limitations in the model grid resolution. To correct for such biases, statistical postprocessing and downscaling procedures are commonly applied so to leverage the information provided by automatic wind measurements at the surface. More recently, such techniques have been reformulated in a machine learning framework so to profit from the increased availability of data and computational resources. The results reported in the literature are promising and call for a serious evaluation of their potential for operational forecasting.</p><p>However, there remain several scientific and more applied challenges that need to be addressed before such methods can transition to real-world applications. One such challenge relates to the availability of multiple ensemble forecasts for the same point in time and space, which raises the question of how the information can be efficiently and optimally handled during postprocessing, so to provide added value to the end-user without adding technical debt to the operational system.</p><p>We propose an approach where a single deep learning model is trained to postprocess a combination of three ensemble forecasting systems, namely the high-resolution regional COSMO model with two configurations, and the ECMWF IFS ENS global ensemble forecasting system. We will show how the training is set up to provide a robust postprocessing model that can account for real time scenarios that include missing data and late model runs, while the quality of the forecasts remains comparable to a single-model approach. We found that the flexibility of the deep learning architecture translates into a robust automatic postprocessing solution that limits the maintenance burden and improves the system’s reliability.</p>

The Added Value of Graphical Input and Display for Electron Lens Design

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-191
Author(s):  
B. Lencova ◽  
G. Wisselink
Keyword(s):  
Flux Density ◽  
Numerical Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Lens Design ◽  
Step Size ◽  
Magnetic Lens ◽  
Flux Lines ◽  
Fine Mesh ◽  
Electron Lens ◽  
User Friendly

Recent progress in computer technology enables the calculation of lens fields and focal properties on commonly available computers such as IBM ATs. If we add to this the use of graphics, we greatly increase the applicability of design programs for electron lenses. Most programs for field computation are based on the finite element method (FEM). They are written in Fortran 77, so that they are easily transferred from PCs to larger machines.The design process has recently been made significantly more user friendly by adding input programs written in Turbo Pascal, which allows a flexible implementation of computer graphics. The input programs have not only menu driven input and modification of numerical data, but also graphics editing of the data. The input programs create files which are subsequently read by the Fortran programs. From the main menu of our magnetic lens design program, further options are chosen by using function keys or numbers. Some options (lens initialization and setting, fine mesh, current densities, etc.) open other menus where computation parameters can be set or numerical data can be entered with the help of a simple line editor. The "draw lens" option enables graphical editing of the mesh - see fig. I. The geometry of the electron lens is specified in terms of coordinates and indices of a coarse quadrilateral mesh. In this mesh, the fine mesh with smoothly changing step size is calculated by an automeshing procedure. The options shown in fig. 1 allow modification of the number of coarse mesh lines, change of coordinates of mesh points or lines, and specification of lens parts. Interactive and graphical modification of the fine mesh can be called from the fine mesh menu. Finally, the lens computation can be called. Our FEM program allows up to 8000 mesh points on an AT computer. Another menu allows the display of computed results stored in output files and graphical display of axial flux density, flux density in magnetic parts, and the flux lines in magnetic lenses - see fig. 2. A series of several lens excitations with user specified or default magnetization curves can be calculated and displayed in one session.

Preliminary Findings on the Use of Session Questionnaires to Improve Clinician-Client Alliance With Special Consideration to Clinical Education

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-60
Author(s):  
Anu Subramanian
Keyword(s):  
Graduate Students ◽  
Clinical Education ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Treatment Effectiveness ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Therapeutic Outcomes ◽  
Specific Feedback ◽  
Stakeholder Perspective

ASHA's focus on evidence-based practice (EBP) includes the family/stakeholder perspective as an important tenet in clinical decision making. The common factors model for treatment effectiveness postulates that clinician-client alliance positively impacts therapeutic outcomes and may be the most important factor for success. One strategy to improve alliance between a client and clinician is the use of outcome questionnaires. In the current study, eight parents of toddlers who attended therapy sessions at a university clinic responded to a session outcome questionnaire that included both rating scale and descriptive questions. Six graduate students completed a survey that included a question about the utility of the questionnaire. Results indicated that the descriptive questions added value and information compared to using only the rating scale. The students were varied in their responses regarding the effectiveness of the questionnaire to increase their comfort with parents. Information gathered from the questionnaire allowed for specific feedback to graduate students to change behaviors and created opportunities for general discussions regarding effective therapy techniques. In addition, the responses generated conversations between the client and clinician focused on clients' concerns. Involving the stakeholder in identifying both effective and ineffective aspects of therapy has advantages for clinical practice and education.

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