Selective ensemble-mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecast by using time-lagged ensemble and multi-centre ensemble in the western North Pacific

2016 ◽  
Vol 142 (699) ◽  
pp. 2452-2462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yugang Du ◽  
Liangbo Qi ◽  
Xiaogang Cao
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Selective Ensemble ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Time Lagged

Applicability of the superensemble to the tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanghee Jun ◽  
Woojeong Lee ◽  
KiRyong Kang ◽  
Kun-Young Byun ◽  
Jiyoung Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track

scholarly journals Impact of Enhanced Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector Observations on Numerical Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts in the Western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (11) ◽  
pp. 2309-2318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Berger ◽  
Rolf Langland ◽  
Christopher S. Velden ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
Patricia M. Pauley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Track ◽  
Rapid Scan ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEnhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) produced from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are assimilated into the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) to evaluate the impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts during the simultaneous western North Pacific Ocean Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure—2008 (TCS-08) field experiments. Four-dimensional data assimilation is employed to take advantage of experimental high-resolution (space and time) AMVs produced for the field campaigns by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. Two enhanced AMV datasets are considered: 1) extended periods produced at hourly intervals over a large western North Pacific domain using routinely available MTSAT imagery and 2) limited periods over a smaller storm-centered domain produced using special MTSAT rapid-scan imagery. Most of the locally impacted forecast cases involve Typhoons Sinlaku and Hagupit, although other storms are also examined. On average, the continuous assimilation of the hourly AMVs reduces the NOGAPS tropical cyclone track forecast errors—in particular, for forecasts longer than 72 h. It is shown that the AMVs can improve the environmental flow analyses that may be influencing the tropical cyclone tracks. Adding rapid-scan AMV observations further reduces the NOGAPS forecast errors. In addition to their benefit in traditional data assimilation, the enhanced AMVs show promise as a potential resource for advanced objective data-targeting methods.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document