Noise due to the Monte Carlo independent-column approximation: short-term and long-term impacts in ECHAM5

2008 ◽  
Vol 134 (631) ◽  
pp. 481-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Räisänen ◽  
S. Järvenoja ◽  
H. Järvinen
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Column

scholarly journals SEQUENTIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING UNDER EXTREME CASH FL OW SITUATIONS: EVIDENCE USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 877-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing Zhang ◽  
Prasad Padmanabhan ◽  
Chia-Hsing Huang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Value Analysis

Uncertainty influences a decision maker's choices when making sequential capital investment decisions. With the possibility of extremely negative cash inflows, firms may need to curtail operations significantly. Traditional Net Present Value analysis does not allow for efficient management of these problems. In addition, firm managers may behave irrationally by accepting negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation based model to provide policy insights on how to incorporate extreme cash flows and manager irrationality scenarios into the capital budgeting process. This paper presents evidence that firms with irrational managers and experiencing extremely negative cash flows may, under certain conditions, reap long term rewards associated with the acceptance of negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. These benefits are largest if cost ratios (discount rates) are small, or investment horizons are high. We argue that acceptance of short term negative Net Present Value projects implies the purchase of a long term real option which can generate positive long term cash flows under certain conditions.

An operational, spatially constrained harvest scheduling model

1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1438-1447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen E. Clements ◽  
Patrick L. Dallain ◽  
Mark S. Jamnick
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
New Brunswick ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Programming Algorithm ◽  
Search Procedure ◽  
Harvest Scheduling ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mapping Strategy ◽  
Scheduling Model

A Monte Carlo integer programming algorithm was developed to generate short-term (25-year), spatially feasible timber harvest plans for a New Brunswick Crown license. Solutions for the short-term plan are considered feasible if they meet spatial and temporal harvest-flow and adjacency constraints. The solution search procedure integrates a randomly generated harvesting sequence and checks of harvest-flow and adjacency constraints. The model was used to determine the annual allowable cut under three constraint formulations. The three formulations represented increasing levels of adjacency constraints, from no constraints to levels similar to current provincial requirements. The annual allowable cut under the most strict constraint formulation was reduced by 9% from the unconstrained formulation, for a given mapping strategy of a long-term harvest schedule. These applications of the model indicate that it is suitable for spatially constrained harvest scheduling on Crown licenses in New Brunswick.

Share repurchases: analyzing short-term and long-term wealth effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-444
Author(s):  
John Rozycki ◽  
Inchul Suh
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Share Repurchases ◽  
Share Repurchase ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the short-term and long-term wealth effects of two share repurchase motivations.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a multi-period numerical model and a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation introduces uncertainty into firms’ market values and eliminates some restrictions used in the numerical model.FindingsIn the long term, firms that refrain from repurchasing overvalued shares outperform otherwise identical firms that do not exhibit such restraint. In the short term, firms that repurchase overvalued shares can outperform firms that refrain from such repurchases. Total returns are a function of misvaluation, the firm’s repurchase decision, the rate of return on invested cash and how long the shares remain misvalued. Share price volatility can influence share repurchase decisions.Research limitations/implicationsThe models are incapable of fully modeling the complexities of a dynamic economic environment.Practical implicationsManagers and investors need to be aware of the short-term and long-term effects of share repurchases. Additionally, investors can gain insight into a firm’s share repurchase motivation by observing its cash balances over time.Social implicationsShare repurchases are a zero-sum game with potentially different short-term and long-term wealth effects.Originality/valueWhen studying the wealth effects of share repurchases, it is important to consider the motivations for repurchasing shares as well as the short-term and long-term effects.

Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Rapid Serial Visual Presentation ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Visual Presentation ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Use Of Knowledge

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-375
Author(s):  
D.E. Loudy ◽  
J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽  
J.T. Yarrington ◽  
F.Y. Thompson ◽  
J.P. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Antidepressant Drug ◽  
Beagle Dogs ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Platelet Counts ◽  
Toxicological Studies ◽  
Induced Aggregation ◽  
Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

Comparison of Auditory, Language, Memory, and Attention Abilities in Children With and Without Listening Difficulties

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 710-727
Author(s):  
Beula M. Magimairaj ◽  
Naveen K. Nagaraj ◽  
Alexander V. Sergeev ◽  
Natalie J. Benafield
Keyword(s):  
Auditory Processing ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Group Differences ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Significant Group ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Memory And Attention ◽  
Speed And Accuracy

Objectives School-age children with and without parent-reported listening difficulties (LiD) were compared on auditory processing, language, memory, and attention abilities. The objective was to extend what is known so far in the literature about children with LiD by using multiple measures and selective novel measures across the above areas. Design Twenty-six children who were reported by their parents as having LiD and 26 age-matched typically developing children completed clinical tests of auditory processing and multiple measures of language, attention, and memory. All children had normal-range pure-tone hearing thresholds bilaterally. Group differences were examined. Results In addition to significantly poorer speech-perception-in-noise scores, children with LiD had reduced speed and accuracy of word retrieval from long-term memory, poorer short-term memory, sentence recall, and inferencing ability. Statistically significant group differences were of moderate effect size; however, standard test scores of children with LiD were not clinically poor. No statistically significant group differences were observed in attention, working memory capacity, vocabulary, and nonverbal IQ. Conclusions Mild signal-to-noise ratio loss, as reflected by the group mean of children with LiD, supported the children's functional listening problems. In addition, children's relative weakness in select areas of language performance, short-term memory, and long-term memory lexical retrieval speed and accuracy added to previous research on evidence-based areas that need to be evaluated in children with LiD who almost always have heterogenous profiles. Importantly, the functional difficulties faced by children with LiD in relation to their test results indicated, to some extent, that commonly used assessments may not be adequately capturing the children's listening challenges. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.12808607

Abstract #283 Diabetes Increases Short-Term but not Long-Term Risk of Fracture: A Community-Based Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Alyssa Dufour ◽  
Setareh Williams ◽  
Richard Weiss ◽  
Elizabeth Samelson
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Risk Of Fracture
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