Optimal decision‐making in oncology development programs based on probability of success for phase III utilizing phase II / III data on response and overall survival

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 861-881
Author(s):  
Heiko Götte ◽  
Junyuan Xiong ◽  
Marietta Kirchner ◽  
Hakan Demirtas ◽  
Meinhard Kieser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
Probability Of Success ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

scholarly journals Neurons in the Frontal Lobe Encode the Value of Multiple Decision Variables

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1162-1178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven W. Kennerley ◽  
Aspandiar F. Dahmubed ◽  
Antonio H. Lara ◽  
Jonathan D. Wallis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Anterior Cingulate ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Decision Variables ◽  
Probability Of Success ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
The Cost

A central question in behavioral science is how we select among choice alternatives to obtain consistently the most beneficial outcomes. Three variables are particularly important when making a decision: the potential payoff, the probability of success, and the cost in terms of time and effort. A key brain region in decision making is the frontal cortex as damage here impairs the ability to make optimal choices across a range of decision types. We simultaneously recorded the activity of multiple single neurons in the frontal cortex while subjects made choices involving the three aforementioned decision variables. This enabled us to contrast the relative contribution of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), the orbito-frontal cortex, and the lateral prefrontal cortex to the decision-making process. Neurons in all three areas encoded value relating to choices involving probability, payoff, or cost manipulations. However, the most significant signals were in the ACC, where neurons encoded multiplexed representations of the three different decision variables. This supports the notion that the ACC is an important component of the neural circuitry underlying optimal decision making.

scholarly journals GEAR: On Optimal Decision Making with Auxiliary Data

Stat ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengrui Cai ◽  
Rui Song ◽  
Wenbin Lu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Auxiliary Data ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

659 AN SINGLE-ARM OPEN-LABEL PHASE II STUDY OF CAMRELIZUMAB PLUS APATINIB AS SECOND-LINE TREATMENT FOR ADVANCED ESOPHAGEAL SQUAMOUS CELL CARCINOMA

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Wang ◽  
Qingxia Fan ◽  
Junsheng Wang ◽  
Tao Wu ◽  
Yonggui Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Objective Response ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Line Treatment ◽  
Second Line

Abstract   Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) as a common malignancy is prevalent in East Asia and in eastern and southern Africa. Although pembrolizumab, nivolumab and camrelizumab are respectively recommended as second-line treatment for advanced ESCC due to improved overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR) was modest. New effective treatments are needed. Hence, the study of camrelizumab plus apatinib (VEGFR2 inhibitor) as second-line treatment for advanced ESCC was performed. Methods This ongoing phase II trial (NCT03736863) in six sites in China enrolled pts aged 18-75 with unresectable locally advanced, locally recurrent, or metastatic ESCC that progressed or were intolerant after first-line chemotherapy, and an ECOG performance status of 0-1. Pts received 200 mg camrelizumab intravenously every 2 weeks and apatinib 250 mg orally once per day in 4-week cycles until disease progression, unacceptable adverse events (AEs) or withdrawal of consent. The primary endpoint was investigator-assessed ORR. Secondary endpoints included disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS) and OS. Results At data cutoff (Feb 28, 2021), 52 pts were enrolled, including 42 males and 50 with distant metastases, with the median age of 62 years. In the evaluable population of 39 pts, ORR without confirmation was 43.59% and DCR was 94.87%. The median duration of response was 6.9 months (95% CI 4.57–9.23). The median PFS was 6.8 month (95% CI 2.66–10.94). The 12-month overall survival was 52.2%. A total of 80.8% of pts had treatment-related AEs (TRAEs) with 46.2% of grade ≥ 3 TRAEs. The safety profile of camrelizumab and apatinib was consistent with other anti–PD-1 antibodies and angiogenesis inhibitors. Conclusion This is the first study that evaluates the combination anti–PD-1 antibody and anti-angiogenesis inhibitor as a second-line therapy for advanced ESCC. Camrelizumab plus apatinib showed encouraging clinical efficacy and acceptable safety. Further phase III randomized trials are warranted.

Operation decision of logistics service supply chain: considering interruption probability in emergencies

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangsheng Zhang ◽  
Xiao Wang ◽  
Zhiqing Meng ◽  
Qirui Zhang ◽  
Kexin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Logistics Service ◽  
Social Reputation ◽  
Punishment Intensity ◽  
Optimal Decision Making

PurposeTo remedy the inherent defect in current research that focuses only on a single type of participants, this paper endeavors to look into the situation as an evolutionary game between a representative Logistics Service Integrator (LSI) and a representative Functional Logistics Service Provider (FLSP) in an environment with sudden crisis and tries to analyze how LSI supervises FLSP's operations and how FLSP responds in a recurrent pattern with different interruption probabilities.Design/methodology/approachRegarding the risks of supply chain interruption in emergencies, this paper develops a two-level model of single LSI and single FLSP, using Evolutionary Game theory to analyze their optimal decision-making, as well as their strategic behaviors on different risk levels regarding the interruption probability to achieve the optimal return with bounded rationality.FindingsThe results show that on a low-risk level, if LSI increases the degree of punishment, it will fail to enhance FLSP's operational activeness in the long term; when the risk rises to an intermediate level, a circular game occurs between LSI and FLSP; and on a high level of risk, FLSP will actively take actions, and its functional probability further impacts LSI's strategic choices. Finally, this paper analyzes the moderating impact of punishment intensity and social reputation loss on the evolutionary model in emergencies and provides relevant managerial implications.Originality/valueFirst, by taking both interruption probability and emergencies into consideration, this paper explores the interactions among the factors relevant to LSI's and FLSP's optimal decision-making. Second, this paper analyzes the optimal evolutionary game strategies of LSI and FLSP with different interruption probability and the range of their optimal strategies. Third, the findings of this paper provide valuable implications for relevant practices, such that the punishment intensity and social reputation loss determine the optimal strategies of LSI and FLSP, and thus it is an effective vehicle for LSSC system administrator to achieve the maximum efficiency of the system.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document