THE END OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH IN THE 21ST CENTURY: NEW CHALLENGES FOR HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT edited by W. Lutz, W. C. Sanderson and S. Scherbov. London, Earthscan, 2004. No. of pages: x + 343. ISBN 1 84407 099 9.

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes ( >100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

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Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1611386113 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 113 (50) ◽

pp. 14294-14299 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

Guy J. Abel ◽

Bilal Barakat ◽

Samir KC ◽

Wolfgang Lutz

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Reproductive Health ◽

Population Growth ◽

Sustainable Development Goals ◽

Population Projections ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

World Population ◽

World Population Growth ◽

Mortality Differentials ◽

Development Goals

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

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The Rise of Global Human Capital and the End of World Population Growth

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century ◽

10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0010 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 519-562

Author(s):

Wolfgang Lutz ◽

Samir KC

Keyword(s):

Human Capital ◽

Population Growth ◽

World Population ◽

World Population Growth

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Management mechanism of human capital formation under a postindustrial economy

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202016410005 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 164 ◽

pp. 10005

Author(s):

Nazirkhan Gadzhiev ◽

Sergey Konovalenko ◽

Mikhail Trofimov ◽

Jamila Leontieva ◽

Khamida Akhmedova

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Human Capital ◽

Economic Analysis ◽

Model Building ◽

Capital Formation ◽

Practical Significance ◽

Human Capital Formation ◽

Management Mechanism ◽

Capital Theory ◽

Main Research

The article is devoted to the study of unsolved problems of the human capital theory, as follows the determination of the mechanism of human capital formation, methods of economic analysis of its effectiveness and accounting costs for its formation. The authors rely on the approach to the definition of “human capital” generally accepted in the economic theory, in terms of which it is a complex of knowledge and the most important resource for sustainable development of the economy, as well as on the structural and systematic approaches, according to which the components of human contribute to the sustainable development of the economy capital acting in concert with each other. In this setting, the main unit of human capital is the member of the creative class. The authors consider a cost approach as the methodological basis for accounting and evaluating human capital in practice. As the main research methods, the authors use the model-building technique for the formation and accumulation of human capital, special methods of economic analysis and statistics. The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in identifying the management mechanism of human capital formation and validation of the integrated assessment methods and the methods of accounting the effectiveness of the costs of developing human capital in the enterprise management system, which were tested when measuring the effectiveness of the particular enterprise’s investments in human capital.

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