Spatial assessment of pesticide leaching risk to groundwater: sub‐national decision making and model output aggregation

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (10) ◽  
pp. 2575-2591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas PF Dowling ◽  
Sabine Beulke ◽  
James Garratt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Spatial Assessment ◽  
Leaching Risk ◽  
Pesticide Leaching

Assessment of the pesticide leaching risk at the Pan-European level. The EuroPEARL approach

2004 ◽  
Vol 289 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 222-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Tiktak ◽  
D.S de Nie ◽  
J.D Piñeros Garcet ◽  
A Jones ◽  
M Vanclooster
Keyword(s):  
European Level ◽  
Leaching Risk ◽  
Pesticide Leaching

scholarly journals A Rainfall - Runoff Model for the Highly Regulated Lake Taupo Catchment, Using a Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filter to Improve the Accuracy and Reliability of Model Output

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Deborah Maxwell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

<p>Lake Taupo is the effective source of the Waikato River. The Waikato Power Scheme relies on the outflow from the lake for moderated flows throughout the year. As the lake is maintained between a 1.4m operating range, it is the inflows to the lake that determine the amount of water available to the scheme for electricity generation. These inflows have not been modelled in any detail prior to this dissertation. This dissertation aims to develop a predictive rainfall-runoff model that can provide accurate and reliable inflow and lake level forecasts for the Lake Taupo catchment. Model formulation is guided by a fundamental understanding of catchment hydrologic principles and an in-depth assessment of catchment hydrologic behaviour. The model is a semi-distributed physically-consistent conceptual model which aims to provide a parsimonious representation of different storages and flow pathways through a catchment. It has three linear sub-surface stores. Drainage to these stores is related to the size of the saturation zone, utilising the concept of a variable source area. This model is used to simulate inflows from gauged unregulated sub-catchments. It is also used to estimate the inflow from ungauged areas through regionalisation. For regulated sub-catchments, the model is modified to incorporate available data and information relating to the relevant scheme‟s operation, resource consent conditions and other physical and legislative constraints. The output from such models is subject to considerable uncertainty due to simplifications in the model structure, estimated parameter values and imperfect driving data. For robust decision making, it is important this uncertainty is reduced to within acceptable levels. In this study, a constrained Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is applied to the four unregulated gauged catchments to deal with model structure and data uncertainties. Used in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations, all three sources of uncertainty are addressed. Simple mass and flux constraints are applied to the four (soil storage, baseflow, interflow and fastflow) model states. Without these constraints states can be adjusted beyond what is physically possible, compromising the integrity of model output. It is demonstrated that the application of a constrained EnKF improves the accuracy and reliability of model output.Due to the complexity of the Tongariro Power Scheme (TPS) and the limited data available to model it, the conceptual model is not suitable. Rather, a statistical probability analysis is used to estimate the discharge from this scheme given the month of the year, day of the week and hour of the day. Model output is combined and converted into a corresponding change in lake level. The model is evaluated over a wide range of hydrological and meteorological conditions. An in-depth critical evaluation is undertaken on eight events chosen a priori as representation of both extreme and „usual‟ conditions. The model provides reasonable predictions of lake level given the uncertainty with the TPS, complexity of the catchment and data/information constraints. The model performs particularly well in „normal‟ and dry conditions but also does a good job during rainfall events in light of errors associated with driving data. However, for real-time operational use the integration of the model with meteorological forecasts is required. Model recalibration would be required due to the issue of moving from point estimation to areal rainfall data. Once this is achieved, this operational model would allow robust decision-making and efficient management of the water resource for the Waikato Power Scheme. Although there is room for improvement, there is considerable scope for extending the application of the constrained EnKF and techniques for incorporating regulation to other catchments both in New Zealand and internationally.</p>

scholarly journals Designing the Virtual River Game to support the collaborative exploration of river interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert-Jan den Haan ◽  
Mascha van der Voort ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Koen Berends ◽  
Suzanne Hulscher
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Computer Games ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
River Management ◽  
Tangible Interaction ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Domain Experts ◽  
Trade Offs

&lt;p&gt;Environmental decision-making concerns application of (multiple) interventions to pursue various objectives and address pressing challenges. Such decision-making is challenging as it includes evaluating the interventions&amp;#8217; effects on different spatial and temporal scales, weighing their inevitable trade-offs, and considering the different stakes at the table. To explore available interventions and their effects, games offer players environments that are inviting, interactive and immersive, and provide a sense of safety to experiment. These qualities make games interesting tools to engage stakeholders and support collaborative decision-making. However, to effectively accomplish this, it is necessary to tailor a game to the various types of stakeholders, who have different backgrounds and levels of expertise.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We present the Virtual River Game, a serious game that challenges players to manage a schematized stretch of a Dutch river. In the game, players freely design and test typical Dutch river interventions. To experience the interventions&amp;#8217; effects, the players&amp;#8217; scores on flood safety, biodiversity, and costs are updated with each tested design. While developing the game, we focused on how to facilitate discussion and collaboration between domain experts &amp;#8211; e.g. hydraulic engineers and flood safety specialists &amp;#8211; and non-experts &amp;#8211; e.g. local residents and farmers. To accommodate domain experts, including real-world engineering models in the game was key to offer credibility to the river interventions&amp;#8217; in-game effects. At the same time, to enable active participation of non-experts, including such models should not make the game too overwhelming. As a solution, we developed an augmented game board, combining the computational power of computer games with the low-threshold and attractiveness of board games. The board has a hexagonal grid of 143 tiles that are always filled with modular game pieces, which combined determine each tile&amp;#8217;s elevation and land use. Players replace game pieces on the board to apply interventions, changing the elevation or land use or both of chosen tiles. An automatic conversion of the board&amp;#8217;s layout updates the game&amp;#8217;s digital elevation model and land use distribution that serve as input for a hydrodynamic, ecological, and cost model. Grounded in tangible interaction, players are provided with a perceptual coupling between their actions and the computed effects by visualizing spatially explicit model output on the board through projection. Additional model output is accessible to players on a separate monitor.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Both domain experts and non-experts played the game in multiple sessions, with experts playing an in-game role not corresponding to their day-to-day professional role. After playing the game, both experts and non-experts indicated that they enjoyed playing it and that they gained new insights about both river management and the other players at the table. In particular, non-experts mostly (strongly) agreed with statements on learning in the post-game questionnaire. Moreover, observations of the sessions and feedback from players indicated that experts complemented the game&amp;#8217;s feedback with their domain-specific knowledge, explaining for example the principles (i.e. the physics) that are applied in river management to non-experts. We conclude that the Virtual River Game&amp;#8217;s hybrid set-up has substantial value by enabling discussion and collaboration between experts and non-experts.&lt;/p&gt;

TRANSLATING BIG DATA MODEL OUTPUT TO INFORM POLICY AND DECISION MAKING

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Dr Marlène van der Sterren ◽  
Merran Griffith ◽  
Scott Manning ◽  
Dr Peter Tate ◽  
Dr Jonathan Dixon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Model Output

Managing Asymmetric Information Effects in Decision-Making Productivity-Based Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-107
Author(s):  
Zina Houhamdi ◽  
Belkacem Athamena ◽  
Ghaleb El Refae
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Asymmetric Information ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Principal Agent ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Correct Decision ◽  
Business Context ◽  
Principal Assessment ◽  
Principal Agent Problem

Making the correct decision requires the possession of sufficient information regarding each alternative possible solution. Nevertheless, the investigation of all possible solutions to select the best alternative is complex and expensive. This article addresses the Principal-Agent problem, where the key feature is asymmetric information. Asymmetric information approaches the decision investigations in a business context, where one participant possesses more or better information than the second party. The authors consider the case where the principal is more knowledgeable than the agent. The article proposes a formal model for assessing agent competence based on his productivity and the principal assessment. The model output helps the agent to make the correct decision.

scholarly journals An indicator of pesticide leaching risk to groundwater

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna M.L. Lindahl ◽  
Christian Bockstaller
Keyword(s):  
Leaching Risk ◽  
Pesticide Leaching
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